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Rich Rezny  

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  • What Is A Bubble? [View instapost]
    Thanks for following. HGG had a nice run since that article. I am curious how these next five or so years will play out for the company. One of the lynchpins in all this might be Sears. They lost about $1.5 billion in the last twelve months. The quicker Sears dies off, the better the prospects for HGG. Thanks again!
    Jan 10, 2014. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 And Net Interest Rate Margins: A Double-Edged Sword [View article]
    Congrats on your first article; it was a good one.
    Jan 2, 2014. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Thoughts On Buffett And Great Banks [View instapost]
    Another great article. I think you are dead on with the "low-cost" strategy. More specifically, low cost deposits. Both M&T and Wells probably have the cheapest costing liabilities in the business; compare that to Citi, whose balance sheet has so much in brokered deposit/non-core funding relative to peers. This noncore funding is expensive and fickle.

    This cheap liability base allows you to not take on significant risk on the asset side and still make good returns. If you listen to Wilmers or Wells, they are not interested in taking the kinds of risks that other bigger banks take. They can afford this strategy though because their cost of funding is so low.

    Thanks for the article!
    Dec 16, 2013. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo Vs. Small Community Banks [View article]
    Great article.
    Dec 7, 2013. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Treasuries Bubble? TMV Or Not TMV [View article]
    happyguy, thanks for your response.

    This pick would have returned 23%; the market would have returned about 19%. It was slightly better than the market but not substantially. Things are a little murkier now to analyze. The Great Rotation back then had just started and tax policy for 2013 was being determined which would determine how much savings would be brought to the market, having an effect on rates. Determining the direction of interest rates was much easier back then. Now, I just don't have a good enough read on the situation to make a profitable investment recommendation. Back then, all signs pointed to less savings and more investment demand; there was a pretty good chance that rates would be affected upwards as elaborated in the article based on this assessment.
    Sep 29, 2013. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining Historical Margin Debt [View article]
    Thanks for this article. You indicated that you looked at margin debt vs. gdp. I'd be curious about the other suggestion as well, margin debt vs. market capitalization. You can see how sensitive the market is to a correction as alluded by miltonreynalds. The higher the debt % of the market, the more likely a correction might turn into a bigger and bigger correction. Great article.
    Sep 27, 2013. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why America's Economy Is Stuck In Low Growth [View article]
    Thanks for a good article and analogies.
    Aug 3, 2013. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amsurg Has Surged Far Enough [View article]
    Nice article. There is a provision in ObamaCare for free colonoscopies covered under insurance plans by law. I wonder how many more of these in total are completed in the US as a result of the new law. That same-center comp rate is concerning in this regard.

    Further, you'd expect corporate overhead to be better absorbed (as a % of sales) as they continue to acquire stores (SG&A actually went up for the TTM). Not good for improving margins; they should be improving profitability as they grow but that does not seem to be the case over the years.

    Thanks for a good article.
    Jul 24, 2013. 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis Of Express Scripts [View article]
    Ray, Thanks for the comment and question. 2012 was a little murky to analyze because of the merger; there were two big companies coming together with two different cost structures. At the previous earnings call, an analyst threw out a number of $1 billion in synergies. There was that $697 million in transaction costs too. Taking this $1.697 billion out of the cost structure works out to about 1.8% of sales. Add that to the current operating margin and you get a margin of 4.77%.

    Management also indicated that, now that they are double the size, they can get better pricing. This will also drive a better margin.
    Mar 15, 2013. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn's Perfect Herbalife Storm [View article]
    Just curious, what are the odds HLF gets taken private? Is that the next step for Icahn or is it just smoke?
    "The Reporting Persons intend to have discussions with management of the Issuer regarding the business and strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value, such as a recapitalization or a going-private transaction." -Icahn's filing
    Feb 20, 2013. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Market Overvalued? [View article]
    thanosoh, thanks for the comment and question. I couldn't tell you with any accuracy a fair price for the market. With this article, I wanted to point out that certain fundamentals of the market as a whole (i.e. corporate profitability) might make for glossier reported valuation metrics because there will likely be a reversion to a mean and those metrics will get pressured. The idea is that investors should be cautious right now and take this into account when assessing the risk/reward situation.
    Feb 14, 2013. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Experiments Leading To Profits [View article]
    Good article. I like the buyback at HGG too. They took out $30 million of stock in the last 9 months on a market cap of $300 million. I believe Charlie Munger is also very fond of buybacks.
    Feb 6, 2013. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetSmart Due For A Correction [View article]
    Nice article. At least one analyst at Nomura agrees with the author.
    Jan 28, 2013. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Earnings Preview: 5 Metrics To Watch [View article]
    Timothy, thanks for a good article. Great metrics to follow.
    Jan 27, 2013. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Ackman's Herbalife Pyramid Claim [View article]
    Thanks for the quick version, Pinocchio1.

    In 2009, that 29% number was 47%.

    "We define discount buyers as customers who have signed up as distributors to enjoy a discount on their purchases; small retailers as product users and sales people who generate modest sales to friends and family; and potential sales leaders as distributors who are proactively developing a business with the intention of qualifying to become a sales leader. In 2009, excluding China, distributor orders for these three general categories were approximately 47%, 36% and 17%, respectively." - 2009 10-K -
    Dec 24, 2012. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment