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Richard Berger

 
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  • The Case For GoPro
    Tue, Dec. 2 GPRO 81 Comments

    Summary

    • GoPro is shaping up to be one of the most important companies of the 21st Century.
    • There is a long list of companies that transformed existing technologies in ways that revolutionized our use of them. GoPro is the latest in that world changing league.
    • At a mere 113X forward earnings, GPRO shares are bargain priced.
    • Already a $10.10 billion company in its first year, GPRO may well be a $200 billion company before 2020.
  • Dividend Zombies - PPG Industries: The Unbearable Lightness Of Being (Part 8)
    Wed, Nov. 26 PPG 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend Zombies are income equities that have survived more than 100+ years with unbroken and undiminished dividend distributions. These are the 8 income machines that can't be killed.
    • Founded in 1883, PPG has provided an chain of unbroken and undiminished dividends every year since 1899, zombie-like for over 115 years.
    • What began as America's first architectural glass manufacturer has grown into a technical leader in glass and coatings.
    • Internal company yield rate trends, P/E multiples, technical trends, and total returns profile all suggest, but do not conclusively demonstrate that the shares are in a possible bubble.
  • Dividend Zombies - Colgate-Palmolive: 5 Facets To This Jewel (Part 7)
    Thu, Nov. 20 CL 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend Zombies are income equities that have survived more than 100+ years with unbroken and undiminished dividend distributions. These are the 8 income machines that can't be killed.
    • Founded in 1806, Colgate-Palmolive's zombie dividend has been alive and well since 1895, now unstoppable for 119 years.
    • Colgate's leading position in oral health products and continuing growth in market share even now, after 208 years makes it a Zombie of distinction.
    • Five strategic factors suggest you should be a Colgate owner right now.
  • Dividend Zombies - Stanley Black & Decker YDP Analysis And Fair Value Appraisal (Part 6)
    Editors' Pick • Tue, Nov. 18 SWK 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend Zombies are income equities that have survived more than 100+ years with unbroken and undiminished dividend distributions. These are the 8 income machines that can't be killed.
    • Stanley Black & Decker arose as a Zombie in 1877, now in its 138th year.
    • Stanley's global supply chain, strong brands, and growing sales, while reducing reliance on chains such as Home Depot all contribute to its continuing ability to dominate its industry segment.
    • Current fair value price is 7.43% above fair value target price. This is just within the range of normal variation trends for the 2.35% yield focus.
  • Dividend Zombies - Coca-Cola YDP Analysis And Fair Value Appraisal (Part 5)
    Fri, Nov. 14 KO 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend Zombies are income equities that have survived more than 100+ years with unbroken and undiminished dividend distributions. These are the 8 income machines that can’t be killed.
    • Coca-Cola began its Zombie run in 1893, now in its 123rd year.
    • Coke's moats are broad and deep, with a global footprint, most recognized logo in the world, 500+ brands and financial might to beat all competitors or simply swallow them.
    • Current fair value price is $43.57, just 2% above the November 12th market.
  • Dividend Zombies: Exxon - YDP Analysis & Fair Value Appraisal (Part 4)
    Tue, Nov. 11 XOM 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend Zombies are income equities that have survived more than 100 years with unbroken and undiminished dividend distributions. These are the 8 income machines that can't be killed.
    • This part 4 of an 8-part series, evaluates XOM fair value price, technical momentum trends, entry point, and a yield boost while lowering market risk using covered option writing.
    • Exxon, at the November 7th close of $96.59 is 16.63% below fair value price for income investors. A soon expected dividend raise will increase the target to $117.55.
  • Dividend Zombies: Procter & Gamble - A YDP Analysis And Fair Value Appraisal (Part 3)
    Thu, Nov. 6 PG 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend Zombies are income equities that have survived more than 100 years with unbroken and undiminished dividend distributions. These are the 8 income machines that can't be killed.
    • Procter & Gamble began its Zombie run in 1891, now in its 123rd year. With a global footprint and over 100 brands, PG has built up multiple moats to sustain
    • This part 3 of an 8-part Zombie series evaluates PG for fair value price, technical momentum, entry point, and a yield boost while lowering market risk using covered options.
    • Current fair value price is $85.87 and will likely rise to $91.20 soon. Covered Option Writing offers doubling of yield rate and a 2.84% reduction in market risk.
  • Dividend Zombies - Consolidated Edison YDP Analysis And Fair Value Appraisal (Part 2)
    Fri, Oct. 31 ED 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend Zombies are income equities that have survived more than 100 years with unbroken and undiminished dividend distributions. These are the 8 income machines that can't be killed.
    • Consolidated Edison is the highest-yielding of the Zombies, currently at 4.03% and a 5-year total return of 184.3%.
    • This part 2 of an 8-part series, evaluates ED fair value price, technical momentum trends, entry point, and a yield boost while lowering market risk using covered option writing.
    • The 1-week 8.7% surge from $57.14 to $62.10 begun on October 7th was probably driven by a short squeeze preceding the November 6th earnings release.
  • Update: Orbital Sciences Explosion Impact Extends Beyond ISS Contract
    Thu, Oct. 30 ORB 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Orbital Sciences, a supplier to the International Space Station, saw Tuesday's launch of its Antares rocket to supply the ISS explode moments after liftoff.
    • This loss represents a devastating setback for ORB under its contract for 8 supply missions through 2016.
    • The $1.9 billion contract disruption will impact 2014 revenues by as much as $235 million. Further impacts are likely in 2015 with interruption of the 1st quarter mission likely.
  • GenCorp Prospects Likely To Sag After Antares Failure
    Thu, Oct. 30 GY 7 Comments

    Summary

    • GenCorp is a leading supplier of rocket and missile propulsion systems, including the Antares system that exploded on lift-off Tuesday night.
    • The spectacular explosion moments after lift-off of Orbital Sciences' Antares vehicle carrying a Cygnus capsule payload for delivery to the International Space Station was likely related to engine component failure.
    • ORB shares are off over 15% in after-market trading. GenCorp is likely to experience significant exposure as the supplier of the engine implicated in the loss.
  • Dividend Zombies - Over 100 Years Of Uninterrupted And Undiminished Dividends (Part 1)
    Mon, Oct. 27 DGRO, NOBL, GIS 76 Comments

    Summary

    • Income investors want high yields but with safety. Add growth for the hat trick.
    • Companies with a long history of uninterrupted and undiminished dividends belong in every income investor's portfolio.
    • In this series, I review the importance of safety, reliability, dividends, and present the Dividend Zombies -- payers of over 100 years of reliable dividends.
    • One Dividend Zombie per article is presented with YDP valuation and conventional metrics, Fair Value Price, and Covered Option Writing to boost yield and reduce market risk.
  • Gold: Making The Most While Avoiding The Risks - A Strategy For Income Investors
    Fri, Oct. 24 GLD 37 Comments

    Summary

    • On November 30th, the Swiss electorate will vote on an initiative put forth by Swiss People's Party and opposed by the government and central bank.
    • Many articles have appeared recently making claims about this action which are misleading or outright false. A recent one caught my attention & I decided to research it myself.
    • Here, I set the record straight and cut through both with an applied lesson of due diligence, providing a cautionary tale to verify what you read.
    • A review of the VIX volatility index, GLD prices, and option premiums are performing as my strategy thesis expects.
  • General Mills - A YDP Analysis And Value Appraisal
    Wed, Oct. 22 GIS 21 Comments

    Summary

    • General Mill's 115 year history of uninterrupted and undiminished dividends make it attractive for income investors.
    • Tuesday's closing on the acquisition of Annie's sets in place several years of continuing growth to fuel rising dividends.
    • YDP evaluation reveals the evolving nature of the company through the years and suggests a $55.59 value for income investors.
    • Available covered options add 3.71% annualized yield to the 3.3% dividend while lowering market risk 0.31%. Alternately, get paid 17.33% annualized rate to wait for a 1.28% discounted price.
  • 4 Reasons To Short Lakeland Industries
    Mon, Oct. 13 LAKE 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Ebola news has thrust Lakeland Industries, a maker of a wide line of protective clothing, including hazmat suits, into the stratosphere for the past 2 weeks.
    • The 282% run-up in share price since news broke of the first Dallas Ebola case is an over-reaction of unbridled enthusiasm by pure momentum players.
    • Speculation that the company will be a big winner in the Ebola supply hoarding scramble is premature, overstated, and a one-off for a very short-term sales boost at best.
    • Recent insider sales by both management and the company's key lender firmly establish the true company value immediately prior to the current irrational Ebola Price Bubble.
  • Select Income REIT - A YDP Appraisal For Income Investors
       • Fri, Oct. 10 SIR 38 Comments

    Summary

    • Select Income REIT is an income investment in a special situation.
    • All valuation methods and metrics indicate it is extremely undervalued at this time.
    • YDP appraisal indicates SIR to be fair value at $28.81, NAV value places it closer to $42.00. Peer fundamentals suggest a value of $30.48.
    • Appraisal of fair value by multiple pathways from multiple sources all indicate buyers should secure positions in SIR shares now and at prices up to $28.80.
  • Ford - A YDP Value Appraisal Of Fair Value For Income Investors
    Wed, Oct. 8 F 20 Comments

    Summary

    • YDP analysis provides a solid value appraisal relying only on known historical data, avoiding any need of forward-looking assumptions needed by conventional fundamental and ROI techniques.
    • Ford's long history of dividends and popularity among income investors make it a good candidate to examine using YDP analysis and appraisal.
    • YDP-determined fair value for Ford is $11.36 for income investors.
    • Covered Option writing provides excellent opportunities to long-term income investors by using Ford right now to generate income and lower current market risk.
  • AT&T - A YDP Look At Fair Value For Income Investors
    Tue, Oct. 7 T 6 Comments

    Summary

    • AT&T, Inc. is widely held by income investors. As such, the historical yield rate trend is a useful metric to fix value.
    • An evaluation of AT&T based on YDP trends indicates it is currently 3.7% under valued at $35.49.
    • Covered option writing is currently available on T to boost income over 2X to 3X while reducing market risk 2.2% to 3.7%.
  • Wild Ebola Case Confirmed In Dallas: What You Need To Know Now And Investing Opportunities
    Wed, Oct. 1 CVS, HSIC, RAD 15 Comments

    Summary

    • The first wild case of Ebola has been confirmed at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas, Texas.
    • This article summarizes the current situation, how to protect yourself and your family with simple steps for now, and lastly what investment opportunities arise from this historic situation.
    • The Dallas Index case was infectious for 4 days in the Dallas Metro area before being hospitalized & isolated. 1000's of potentially secondarily infected could spread beyond Dallas.
    • Hepa Grade Face Masks and gloves are protection of choice from infection for the general population now. It will be about 3 weeks until any secondary cases are detected.
    • Several investing opportunities exist in medical supply companies, drug stores, and perhaps a surprising place not considered at first glance.
  • Petrobras Is Headed Into A Perfect Storm
    Mon, Sep. 29 PBR 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Already repeatedly unable to meet production and financial goals, the falling price of crude and weak product markets both at home and abroad continue to plague this SuperMajor.
    • Scandal, bribes, kickbacks, inefficiencies and government policy of this captive national oil company are boiling forth faster than they can be headlined.
    • Brazil's elections are swinging strongly towards socialist Marina Silva. She has indicated an intention to curb Petrobras, decrease focus and reliance on oil and gas and redirect national treasure elsewhere.
  • Bob Evans Farms' Special Situation Evolves Significantly
    Thu, Sep. 25 BOBE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bob Evans Farms is a special situation in the late stages of a 3 year turn-around plan & a battle with dissident shareholders led by Sandell Asset Management.
    • Activist group leader Sandell disclosed this week several suitors have approached seeking to purchase the BEF division and property assets.
    • Insider buying during the past 30 days shows multiple officers and directors increasing their stakes by over $1 million, including over $700,000 in market buys this past week.
    • Dissident activist shareholder Sandell has captured 4 seats on BOBE's 12 seat board & revealed it has been approached by multiple parties interested in acquiring major parts of the company.
  • Update: Select Income REIT - Largest Shareholder (37%) Sells Its Entire Position
    Thu, Jul. 10 SIR 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Commonwealth REIT revealed, after close Wednesday, sale of its entire 22 million share SIR position to Government Properties Income Trust and REIT Management & Research for $31.51/share, a 5.1% premium.
    • I see this as a green-mail payment to dissident CWH by White Knights in support of existing management in the fight with Lakewood for control of the SIR Board.
    • The preferential buyout was 1 of the 3 key malfeasance issues Lakewood asserts was in the works in its recent open letter to SIR Trustees.
  • Bob Evans Farms: Earnings, Guidance, A Proxy Fight And How You Can Win Either Way
       • Thu, Jul. 10 BOBE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bob Evans Farms, Inc. has released fiscal 2014 4th quarter & year end results overnight. Results are weak but near analysts' expectations. 2015 guidance has been lowered.
    • Management has failed to engage crucial systems to deal with fundamental internal and external factors that materially impact results.
    • The weak fiscal 2014 results and wavering 2015 vision shown in management forward guidance exposes both weaknesses and opportunities. Primarily it highlights the need for a management shakeup.
    • Activist shareholder Sandell Asset Management is waging a proxy fight to wrest control from a unfocused and ineffective board. Meantime, current turnaround plans continue to progress.
    • Either way, shareholders stand to see blossoming value from either possible scenario in the fight between activist Sandell and current Board. This is the time to stake out a position.
  • Select Income REIT: 3 Factors Point To 43.5% Fair Value Discount And A Special Situation
    Tue, Jun. 17 SIR 31 Comments

    Summary

    • Activist moves by major shareholders Lakewood Capital Management (private hedge fund owning 5.8% of SIR) and Commonwealth REIT (37.4% owner of SIR) can be expected to unlock value.
    • Lakewood Capital accuses SIR management of malfeasance and plans aggressive fight.
    • On March 25, 2014 Commonwealth REIT removed and replaced its entire Board, which included members representing 60% of the current SIR Board.
    • Commonwealth and Lakewood are now actively working to remove and replace the SIR Board through new Board elections and probable legal actions due to the alleged Board malfeasance.
  • Is Johnson & Johnson Over-Priced? Shares Remain 29% To 36% Undervalued At Present
    Thu, Jun. 5 JNJ 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Johnson & Johnson is one of the cream of the Dividend Aristocrats, is 128 years old and has raised its dividend each of the last 52 years.
    • Now testing new highs almost daily, the question of a JNJ bubble is hotly debated. The issue is evaluated and settled in this analysis, based on clear and simple criteria.
    • The compelling case that shares are presently 29% to 36% undervalued is presented here in clear and simple steps.
  • General Electric: Income Investors Need To Know Value Pricing And How To Boost This Yield
    Wed, Jun. 4 GE 34 Comments

    Summary

    • General Electric is a fine old aristocrat, having paid a dividend every quarter for over 450 quarters (114 years).
    • Jeff Immelt, in his 2013 annual report letter to shareholders, gave guidance that GE will return $90 Billion to shareholders in the 2014-2016 period.
    • In this article, I bore in to find what these numbers are likely to translate into for share price & dividends.
    • Covered Option Strategies are presented which provide 3X to 10X the dividend yield rate while reducing market risk 2.06%.
  • Buy Gold Now? What Every Income Investor Needs To Know
    Tue, May. 27 GLD 60 Comments

    Summary

    • Income investors generally avoid precious metals because these assets do not generate an income stream.
    • Investors who rely on dividend income should have 2 years of basic expenses in safe, highly liquid form to avoid the need to convert to cash in market shocks.
    • Today, I discuss how to use gold to protect against sudden market shocks and obtain superior monthly income while doing so.
  • Apple And Microsoft Share A Dirty Little Secret
    Wed, Apr. 23 AAPL, MSFT 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple and Microsoft key fundamental value metrics trends have broken since early 2012 but prices have ignored this.
    • Apple cash from operations trend abruptly changed from soaring to flat and remains there since the 1st quarter 2012. Microsoft went from slow growth to decline for the same periods.
    • P/E ratios of both companies are appropriate for mature technology with slow growth. They are as much as 50 percent too high for no growth cash cows.
    • Dividend yield rates for both companies are well below what they should be for no growth cash cows.
    • Room for significant dividend hikes leaves room for share price advance even at a higher 3.3% yield rate.
  • Wal-Mart Income Investors Should Exchange The 2.47% Dividend For A 7.88% Annualized Yield
    Tue, Apr. 22 WMT 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Wal-Mart is currently trading near its fair value of $78.37 as a pure income investment.
    • Price history shows Wal-Mart to be an income, not a growth, stock. Shares delivered 83%+ of net advance in 2 periods of just 57 months of its entire 42 years.
    • Income investors can exchange the $1.92 (2.47%) dividend yield for a 7.88% yield, while lowering market risk 3.5%.
    • Current shareholders targeting income should convert the 2.47% dividend to a 7.88% annual yield rate, add $4.30 per share in their pocket today and lower market risk 3.5%.
    • Growth investors should write the 5/17/2014 $80.00 Call @ $0.25 premium. A 4.62% annualized yield addition on the 2.47% dividend or a 62.49% annualized profit, if called.
  • Intel Income Investors Earn 11.32% Annual Yield Rate Now
    Mon, Apr. 21 INTC 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Intel is a blended growth and income investment with a history of share appreciation and a superior dividend.
    • Pure income investors can convert the 3.34% dividend into an 11.32% yield.
    • Income investors should buy shares at today's $26.93 market, and write the January 17, 2015 $27.00 Covered Calls @ $1.62 premium.
    • The covered option boost removes the growth potential from the shares, exchanging it for a 3.39X expansion of the dividend from $0.90 annual distribution to $3.05 (3.34% to 11.32%).
    • The Covered Call boost also lowers market risk by 8.25%.
  • The Tortoise Series: Part 19 - Potash Corp. Fertilizer Or Just A Load Of Manure?
    Mon, Apr. 14 POT 37 Comments

    Summary

    • This is part 19 in a continuing series on building a dividend income equity portfolio with lower market risk and boosted yield using covered option writing.
    • Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan is evaluated for value and yield boost using covered option writing.
    • Potash cannot be considered a suitable candidate for a dividend income portfolio. Investors with that focus should avoid the shares at this time.
    • Existing shareholders may want to use the 5/17/2014 $36.00 Covered Call for an annualized yield boost of 219% on top of the existing dividend.
  • The Tortoise Strategy: Part 18 - Why Blackstone Group L.P. Is A Buy Now
    Fri, Apr. 11 BX 35 Comments

    Summary

    • This is part 18 in a continuing series on building a dividend income equity portfolio with lower market risk and boosted yield using covered option writing.
    • Blackstone Group L.P. is evaluated for value and yield boost using covered option writing.
    • Most investors should buy the shares at $31.30 market, and sell the 9/20/14 $36 covered Calls with $0.85 premium to generate income, boost yields, and hedge downside risk by $0.85.
    • Pure income investors may sell the 4/17/2014 $36 Strike Cash-Covered Put with a $1.50 premium, hedged reduced basis of $29.50 if shares presented, and 50.16% annualized yield rate.
  • The Tortoise Strategy: Part 16 - CM Dividend Is 4.07%. You Can Get 7.61% If You Buy Now
    Tue, Apr. 8 CM 9 Comments

    Summary

    • This is part 16 in a continuing series on building a dividend income equity portfolio with lower market risk and boosted yield using covered option writing.
    • Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is evaluated for value and yield boost using covered option writing.
    • After completing an inverted head & shoulders pattern on February 27th, shares broke out higher, consolidating now in a channel from $85.00 to $86.80. Long-term support is at $81.75.
    • An attractive dividend income equity with slow growth, the 4.07% dividend can be converted to 7.61% yield today.