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Richard Berger  

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  • How To Return To Oil Sector Investing [View article]
    jz10,

    Thanks for sharing those observations.

    You have laid out some clear pro leverage points and basis for ETN selections.

    Richard
    Jun 26, 2015. 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Return To Oil Sector Investing [View article]
    Tax Novice,

    Thanks for reading and taking the time to share your thoughts.

    Leverage is certainly an important part of the choice of what strategy and vehicle to use once a decision is made to return to oil/energy. I have laid out my reason for favoring leverage here. Uncle Pie has done a good job of laying out the counter points.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Analysis Shows Fannie Mae Didn't Need A Dime [View article]
    Since the government people involved (everyone from Bush and Obama on down to the SEC and fed lawyers) acted completely outside the scope of any authority, they may not be protected by the mantle of the job with federal entities and GSEs shielding them from personal liability even. Its possible the mob will go after each and every hand that had a finger in the pocket which was picked.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Analysis Shows Fannie Mae Didn't Need A Dime [View article]
    Look at the logic the appellate applied to AIG. The gov't illegally took $25 Billion in assets but does not have to return them because there is no proof they were worth $25 billion at the time they were taken in illiquid markets. The Court opted to ignore a fundamental principle of jurisprudence that a wrong doer should never be allowed to benefit from their action. This is likely to be the approach taken for all the TARP crazed actions undertaken in 2008

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 10:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Return To Oil Sector Investing [View article]
    As a basket, the MLPL hold up very well in a low price oil era. As individuals, many are threatened. Consolidations of the weak into the strong will happen. The basket is essentaily neutral to those pairings if both are inside the basket. Long range, the new combinations should be positive in a low oil era. A similar set of conclusions about interest rate risk for existing debt and capital expansion is true.

    I'm glad you enjoyed the read and the comment dialogue. I consider the comment section an integral part of everything I write. Readers offer some excellent insights and analysis.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Analysis Shows Fannie Mae Didn't Need A Dime [View article]
    Retiree#2,

    Many people make the same mistake, not realizing its a new company.

    AIG, FANNIE, FREDDIE, GM, did not ask the gov't for bailouts or even loans ultimately, they were forced upon them by the gov't.

    Yes, GM and all the auto makers tried to con the gov't into sweetheart loans, but that failed. Intead the gov't illegally used its coercion and outright criminal acts to steal the equity.

    In the case of GM, if it had gone broke, the REAL demand for their cars would not have disappeared, it would have shifted to other living car makers, Ford mostly (who did NOT take a bailout TARP loan). The suppliers and supply chain would have simply (ok, not so simple) shifted to Ford and survived also. Instead, the competent (Ford) was penalized and incompetent (GM) was rewarded. NewGM had its pension, labor contract, and warranty liabilities all erased by gov't fiat, and Ford was punished by having to keep all their historical baggage.

    Do I exaggerate when I call it theft and criminal taking? Not if you believe the US Supreme Court.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 08:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Return To Oil Sector Investing [View article]
    Hehe, people will be make Zeno's same mistake forever. False conclusions arise when ignoring the proof of reality just as Zeno and his paradox do. When theory and reality disagree, reality wins every time.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 07:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Analysis Shows Fannie Mae Didn't Need A Dime [View article]
    Adam S.

    I think you make the mistake of identifying a problem ....

    "But that just was not the case in Sep/Oct 2008 right? There wasn't anyone to pledge them to. "

    And then jumping to the conclusion like Tim & friends that the ONLY solution was a gov't takeover and 1000s of new and complex rules.

    How about if in October 2008, rather than panic over illiquidity triggered "market to market" threat to value of reserves .. the gov't simply used one TINY rule change of temporarily adjusting the reserve requirements? This could have been done without even any Congressional or agency action, a simple Presidental "pardon" in advance (like Ford gave Nixon) allowing the reserve requirements to be temporarily violated for a stated period of time without penalty or legal action.

    Voila, the entire liquidity crisis would be put on hold, panic avoided (instead of fanned). Markets given time to work things out, instead of freezing in artificial distortions and gov't picked "winners and losers". Distortions which remain to still be worked out of todays markets.f

    It was the governement that created reserve requirements. It was reserve requirments that stood at the heart of the liquidity crisis. The proper solution/response would have been to remove/adjust those artificial gov't created and imposed metrics.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Analysis Shows Fannie Mae Didn't Need A Dime [View article]
    Retiree #2

    You state:

    "My point is: As like GM, once the loan was paid, the owners (stock holders) got to keep their company."

    Huh? What are you talking about. GM was illegally forced into bankruptcy by the US Govt. None of the shareholders at that time retained a penny of ownership. There is no GM from that day still. The new company that came took the assets of the old GM was called the NewGM and had none of the original shareholders.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Analysis Shows Fannie Mae Didn't Need A Dime [View article]
    Odd, I thought Obama was a Senator at the time, voted for TARP and the rest of the panic legislation. But I could be mistaken.

    At any rate, nobody ever shook their head when they heard "Hi, I'm from the government and we're here to help".... then they pulled out their guns.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Return To Oil Sector Investing [View article]
    SeatleView,

    Thanks for sharing your perspective and highlighting some of the issues as you perceive them.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Richards Packaging: Smart Money Pointing Way To 59% Upside [View article]
    master income investor,

    Hi, I have provided my email address to you via private message.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Return To Oil Sector Investing [View article]
    Uncle Pie,

    Interesting points. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Of course built in tax efficiency and some filing complexities are one reason MLPs are often suggested as best held outside tax preference accounts. Simplicity (1099 income) and tax impacts are good reasons to hold ETNs inside tax preference accounts.

    Also, as you said, investors like tax efficient vehicles and bid up the price of them. Hence, the price is already bid up in the basket index which this ETN is tracking.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 12:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Return To Oil Sector Investing [View article]
    just-an-opinion,

    Thanks for sharing your perspective.

    Your point about each individual investment being only one part of a greater whole that consists of the entire portfolio is a good one. That is the point of my discussion of risk management I discussed in detail.

    MLPL and the timing of re-entry to oil now has risk-on elements.

    Those risks are partially countered by the current market cycle position where oil is closer to a bottom than a top. There is a consolidation phase underway with M&A activity so that some of the weaker will be eaten by the stronger (to the benefit of those who hold both, as they will for those pairs in the Alerian basket). The basket itself provides diversity within the Energy MLP sector.

    Outside the MLPL element should be other investments balancing systemic risks related to capital and credit markets, other parts of the economic cycle, and other such macro economic factors.

    With a total balanced approach, risk well managed and reduced to or below the level of broad market index risk. None the less, market risk to some extent can never be eliminated. The closest metric to zero market risk is generally considered to be long term US treasuries. However, you will note that there is inflation risk and currency stability risk in those.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Return To Oil Sector Investing [View article]
    TR,

    Thanks, we will look forward to hearing back with your report on the Canadian tax preference account eligibility.

    Richard
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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