VIX ETN Hits All-Time Low, In Single Digits As Contango Deepens [View article]
Not offhand, and I'm not sure which contracts XIV holds, but if November is coming into play (Sept. expires on Wed.) that contract was down by less than 1%
VIX ETN Hits All-Time Low, In Single Digits As Contango Deepens [View article]
It all depends on your view of what's going to happen to the market.
More of the same, a market that seems to believe that QE3 is "at hand," and you'll want to (in general) be trading the XIV inverse ETN as dd2020dd describes above.
If there's going to be a meaningful correction in the market that lasts a few days or weeks, VXX will take off for a short time (a few days at a time for a few weeks at the most).
I personally believe that tradeonline.ca (also above) is right, that the VIX is like a coiled spring ready to move up. I'm just not smart enough to know when.
VIX ETN Hits All-Time Low, In Single Digits As Contango Deepens [View article]
The VIX does measure implied volatility, but that's a statistic and you can't "buy" a statistic.
What you CAN buy is a contract with the value ultimately determined by this statistic on a certain date. These are VIX futures contracts, which are usually in the contango you describe. But whether contagoed or not, VIX futures expire at the VIX spot price every month. It's not a commodity like oil you can just store for the future.
The ETNs trade these futures contracts, but can they impact the VIX itself over the long term? I doubt it. After all, an SPX option is going to be expensive if people want it and cheap if they don't. And that's what the VIX measures, the portion of the value of these options that reflects expected moves in the markets. The rest of it is sort of like a sideshow in my view.
I don't think the dividend will make that much of a difference to the PE. It does provide a certain degree of yield support, but I think we need to see how much the company is willing to raise it.
As for 2013, a lot depends on the overall market itself -- and I am not especially optimistic. I think Apple will be fine, but if the market swoons, AAPL's PE is likely to move down again.
If you're thinking of selling, perhaps you could take a middle ground -- turning a "large group of shares" into a "smaller group of shares."? Just my opinion, but it might be easier to be patient that way.
Apple's P/E Ratio Rising - How High Is Too High? [View article]
Thanks Travis. I think the cash will continue to build up, but at least some of it is going out the door (dividend & buyback). Be interesting to see what Apple's cash position will be a year from now.
Apple Open Interest Explodes: Sets All-Time Highs [View article]
VIX ETN Hits All-Time Low, In Single Digits As Contango Deepens [View article]
VIX ETN Hits All-Time Low, In Single Digits As Contango Deepens [View article]
Apple Disappoints, But Adds $7 Billion To Balance Sheet [View article]
VIX ETN Hits All-Time Low, In Single Digits As Contango Deepens [View article]
I show that VXX hit a low somewhere near 11 the last time before it reverse split to around 44 -- so I don't think it ever had a "9 handle" before.
However I realize I am "splitting hairs" because the "real" price for VXX is around 2.50 if it had not split back in 2010.
As for 2014, I'd have to evaluate a few different scenarios before offering an opinion on that.
VIX ETN Hits All-Time Low, In Single Digits As Contango Deepens [View article]
VIX ETN Hits All-Time Low, In Single Digits As Contango Deepens [View article]
VIX ETN Hits All-Time Low, In Single Digits As Contango Deepens [View article]
More of the same, a market that seems to believe that QE3 is "at hand," and you'll want to (in general) be trading the XIV inverse ETN as dd2020dd describes above.
If there's going to be a meaningful correction in the market that lasts a few days or weeks, VXX will take off for a short time (a few days at a time for a few weeks at the most).
I personally believe that tradeonline.ca (also above) is right, that the VIX is like a coiled spring ready to move up. I'm just not smart enough to know when.
VIX ETN Hits All-Time Low, In Single Digits As Contango Deepens [View article]
What you CAN buy is a contract with the value ultimately determined by this statistic on a certain date. These are VIX futures contracts, which are usually in the contango you describe. But whether contagoed or not, VIX futures expire at the VIX spot price every month. It's not a commodity like oil you can just store for the future.
The ETNs trade these futures contracts, but can they impact the VIX itself over the long term? I doubt it. After all, an SPX option is going to be expensive if people want it and cheap if they don't. And that's what the VIX measures, the portion of the value of these options that reflects expected moves in the markets. The rest of it is sort of like a sideshow in my view.
VIX ETN Hits All-Time Low, In Single Digits As Contango Deepens [View article]
Yes, the inverse XIV is definitely the place when contango rules the day. Thanks for your comment on my chart.
Altria: New Dividend Levels To Watch [View article]
Altria: New Dividend Levels To Watch [View article]
Apple's P/E Ratio Rising - How High Is Too High? [View article]
You might find this article from last May interesting, including a chart from Andy Zaky that shows how the PE has "compressed" in the past.
http://bit.ly/ItWtPf
I don't think the dividend will make that much of a difference to the PE. It does provide a certain degree of yield support, but I think we need to see how much the company is willing to raise it.
As for 2013, a lot depends on the overall market itself -- and I am not especially optimistic. I think Apple will be fine, but if the market swoons, AAPL's PE is likely to move down again.
If you're thinking of selling, perhaps you could take a middle ground -- turning a "large group of shares" into a "smaller group of shares."? Just my opinion, but it might be easier to be patient that way.
Apple's P/E Ratio Rising - How High Is Too High? [View article]
Apple's P/E Ratio Rising - How High Is Too High? [View article]