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Richard Evans

 
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  • Time To Consider HollyFrontier? [View article]
    It has been screaming around - but looks to be establishing a floor at about $40.
    Jul 12 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Like Exxon Mobil, Buy Rosneft [View article]
    Thank you.
    Jul 11 06:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Like Exxon Mobil, Buy Rosneft [View article]
    He might nationalize some companies, but I doubt all. A perfect example is Rosneft. It already is majority owned by the government, but needs access to investor funds in order to monetize its vast resources. I'd put the chance of Rosneft in particular being further nationalized at about zilch.
    Jul 11 06:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Like Exxon Mobil, Buy Rosneft [View article]
    rosn.me is the listing for trading Rosneft directly on the Russian MICEX market. While it is possible, most people who read Seeking Alpha will have easier access to the stocks traded on the London and OTC markets.

    PBR is a good option, but the political and economic situation in many ways is just as roiled and dangerous as that of Russia. The failure of a number of government policies, tied to problems with preparing for its hosting of the upcoming world cup, has lead to widespread unrest, and raises the liklyhood of a government shift more to the populous/nationalizing type of Bolivia, Venezuela/Ecuador.

    All investment in emerging markets hold more risk, but the possibility of more gain. All investors need to weigh their own needs and goals along with the risk - reward ratio.

    Thank you for the comment.
    Jul 11 06:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Like Exxon Mobil, Buy Rosneft [View article]
    Thank you for agreeing with my thesis. Of course, many people are willing to face more risk if it means a big upside.

    Thank you for your comment.
    Jul 11 06:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Consider HollyFrontier? [View article]
    I have not gotten elbow deep into the numbers like I have with some of the others - another on my "to do" list. From outside looking in it looks good
    Jul 8 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Consider HollyFrontier? [View article]
    I applaud the stomach, but buying on a downward plunge is always very risky.

    Good luck.
    Jul 7 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Consider HollyFrontier? [View article]
    Hall44
    Actually I could probably write 2-3 articles. I am working on one right now.
    As far as positively - I'd say PSX. Of these they are fighting the hardest to buy up rail cars and other means to get cheap crude to their refineries. The other biggie on this list, Valero, would be a near second.
    Negatively I'd put DK, just because they are the ones most dependent on taking advantage of the Cushing fiasco. It would also hit Alon and HFC a little bit, but their refineries are located in a way that I do not believe the current pipeline plans will effect is as meaningful a way.
    As far as question two - that really depends on how those hypothetical restrictions hit. I have thought about looking into that question in more detail, but have not yet. This might be a great time to do it.
    Jul 7 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Consider HollyFrontier? [View article]
    The most important is crack spread, but that spread is impacted by the WTI/Brent ratio, at least for the mid-American refiners like HFC. If WTI is significantly lower than Brent, then the crack spread grows.

    That said, there really is no economic reason for oil to be above $100, problems in Egypt and elsewhere does not affect Cushing and oil supplies remain high Stateside. However there is some emotional trading going on right now, so crack spreads will likely tighten for a few weeks. One reason why I wouldn't buy HFC quite yet.

    Good question
    Jul 3 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Consider HollyFrontier? [View article]
    Thank you and you are very welcome
    Jul 3 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Consider HollyFrontier? [View article]
    Thank you for the nice comment. Hedge funds tend to be more short term - chasing the short term money.The tend to go more in and out, increasing volatility. Other institutional investors have longer term goals and tend to stay in a position longer.

    It is a catch 22 -some long term institutional investors stay away to some extent because of the volatility, but it is more volatile because of the low level of long term institutional investment.

    At least, IMHO
    Jul 3 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Consider HollyFrontier? [View article]
    Can't agree more. Magnificent value and great, investor friendly board. However this is definitely not a buy-and-forget stock. Way too volatile for that.
    Jul 3 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Consider HollyFrontier? [View article]
    I believe Brent is coming down due to the growing concerns that the Euro recession will languish longer than expected, while negative economic reports out of China worry traders about future weaker demand. Many analysts are down ticking their economic expectations going into the next few quarters.

    Thank you for your comment.
    Jul 2 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Any Big Oil Stocks A Buy Right Now? [View article]
    Sure, many companies have more than one type of stock.

    Remember that each share is actually a bundle or rights - rights of ownership, of voting on corporate decisions, on receiving dividends, etc.

    In this case the "A" shares are the normal shares of the company. The "B" shares were issued as part of the combination of Shell and Royal Dutch (I think) and they had different rules as far as how much of a dividend they would receive, etc. As of 2011 the B shares are being bought out by Shell over a steady buyback and will eventually cease to exist. If you were already an owner of "B" shares or were interested in arbitrage opportunities then you might want to look into them. However if you are like 95% of most investors you should just ignore the B shares and look at the A shares.

    Hope this helps
    Jul 1 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Consider HollyFrontier? [View article]
    Actually Rocca's is a great companion piece. We basically came to the same conclusion but in different ways.

    He was concentrating more on the internal factors and especially on the free cash flow and financial position of the company. I was looking more at HFC's external factors especially its competitive place within the refining market place.

    Reading them together definitely adds to the story.
    Jul 1 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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289 Comments
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