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Richard Falcon

 
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  • Johnson & Johnson: A Compelling Buy, But I Would Wait For A Pullback [View article]
    I think you need to go back more than 5 years to compare current to historical valuations. The past 5 years has been a period where JNJ has seen historical low valuations.

    I wrote the article below on JNJ in 2012 reviewing the valuation case at the time - you can see back then valuations were well below historical norms. In my opinion JNJ is probably appropriately valued right now. Good buy for the long term, but its not standing out right now.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 29 04:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.K. Sweet Sixteens [View article]
    Thanks for the info on UK companies. Interested to hear more about Cranswick. Are you able to speak more about current earnings growth rates as well as valuation in comparison to the historical context? Can do the research myself, but just wondering if you already have this to hand
    Jun 27 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cashing In Some Gains From Ross Stores To Diversify My Income Stream [View article]
    I am actually going through this debate myself with Starbucks. I'd like to know if you have an opinion on SBUX (purely on a valuation perspective) as the Fast Graph is pretty similar to that of ROST. I am conscious SBUX is overvalued right now, but maybe only a little bit. And I know finding a similar replacement in terms of performance will not be easy.

    Enjoy your articles Canadian, they invariably follow my line of thinking and help me with my decisions. All the best
    Nov 10 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wendy's - Do What Tastes Right! [View article]
    I looked at Wendy's last year, but the fact it couldn't string 3 consecutive years of increasing EPS going back to '96 was enough to put me off. The dividend hasn't been stable historically either. For me, it would be McDonald's every time!
    May 9 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • During Accumulation Phase, It's OK To Be Concentrated [View article]
    Thanks for the link chowder, another excellent perspective and an area I need to become more familiar with for sure.
    Apr 21 05:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • During Accumulation Phase, It's OK To Be Concentrated [View article]
    This is a timely article for me as it relates to the position I find myself in. I am in the early stages of building a portfolio and it looks like I have a similar watch list to yourself. But I too have been aware I may be overconcentrating in certain stocks, namely tech at what appears excellent value. But I like your line of thought. Its always nice to get some reassurance from reading the decision making process of another SA contributor that you can identify with. Best of luck with your portfolio building!
    Apr 20 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen Co. - Good Value Long Term But Wait For A Better Upcoming Entry Point [View article]
    Hi pmheindl, I am in agreement with you. By including a short piece on market timing, my aim was to cover all aspects one might consider when initiating a position and create an extra discussion point.

    To clarify my own personal position, I did own WAG and sold recently, crystalizing a nice profit. I did so not as a trade, but due to personal circumstances at the time. Because I still like WAG, and think its good value, I am looking to re-enter at some point. But I am deciding to wait a while, for the possibility of a modest pullback.

    Whether that proves to be the best decision, I am not certain. But I believe our discussion highlights the choices an investor is faced with when deciding to allocate their money to an certain stock after a run up.

    All the best,

    Richard
    Apr 9 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen Co. - Good Value Long Term But Wait For A Better Upcoming Entry Point [View article]
    Thanks pmheindl and dernermit for taking the time to read and to leave some feedback. By showing where the current price was compared to the 30W moving average, I was trying to show when the WAG price gets between 20-30% above the moving average, as it is now, then the price quickly reverts to the mean. It will do this either by pulling back, or by trading sideways for a while.
    That means the price is unlikely to move too much higher from here in the short-term, with the possibility that it may pull back some. Therefore, waiting a couple of months may provide a better entry point.

    Time will tell, but I hope you found aspects of the article useful. Thanks again for taking the time to comment.
    Apr 8 05:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Do You Think It Is Breaking Out? [View article]
    Interesting summary on the mathematical history of phi. This is something I'd like to read into more. Following your articles closely Avi. I started a long position in silver last spring and over that time I have come to fully agree with you that silver cannot be predicted based on "fundamentals". Always look forward to your latest views on the subject.
    Jan 20 06:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Microsoft On 20% Pullback: Dividend Grower With Moderate Growth [View article]
    I like this idea, a neat way to time topping up on positions
    Nov 23 05:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: Not Likely A Winner [View article]
    Short term - no, long term - yes!
    Sep 13 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Dead Money [View article]
    Couldn't disagree more!

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 13 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Value In Household Products Companies [View article]
    Hi Sneaker, I'm glad you found the graphs useful. As the yields are also at historically high levels, and both PG and CL have very long track records of increasing their payments, I can only see the PE ratios closing back in on their means. Of course, this may take a number of years - it took 10 years for their PE ratios to go from peak to trough, so I believe there is plenty of time to pick these shares up at decent valuations. Peak value has probably passed, but that can be said about most shares after the collapse of 2008/09.

    CHD has also gone on my watchlist now. Had never looked at it before writing this article and am always happy to find another company that fits my potential investment criteria.

    Thanks for reading and taking the time to comment!
    Sep 5 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Brazil's Coming Infrastructure Boom [View article]
    Yes, perhaps in the construction sector. However, in the BRXX fund there are companies from the telecommunications, utilities, financials, transportation, real estate etc..... sectors. All these companies would benefit from the infrastructure investment. How much they will benefit directly, I have no idea, but indirectly, once the investment has been made, it will surely be easier for them to do business in the future. The stat in the article saying only 6% of roads in Brazil are paved is shocking to me. It shows how far Brazil still needs to go, so ultimately, an investment along the theme of its infrastructure could well be a very long term play.
    Sep 4 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Brazil's Coming Infrastructure Boom [View article]
    Good question. This is why I prefer BRXX.
    Sep 4 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
37 Comments
26 Likes