Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Richard Glenn  

View Richard Glenn's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Bruce Fund: A Great Long-Term Investment [View article]
    Sounds interesting. How much of their performance has come from Amerco? Net, how have all the other investments done over the last 10 years? One investment up 150X is fantastic, but if that's the only homerun, you have to ask what the chances are that they find another Amerco.
    Jun 29, 2015. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Redacted Version Of The June 2015 FOMC Statement [View article]
    Thanks for the great summary. I really like the format. So, to echo bnor, if you were king for a day (or a year) at the fed, what would you do with this slow / no growth swamp we find ourselves in?
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Game Of NAND: SanDisk's Uncertain Crown [View article]
    When a company is acquired, the calls are adjusted to reflect the basket of assets (cash, stock, or some combination) that was paid to effect the takeover. If the purchase was in stock, i.e. for every share of micron you get 1.5 shares of intel, then your call options would still have value, and they would each be good for calling 150 shares of intel for $45 rather than 100 shares of the now non - existent micron. If however, the transaction was in cash, then you are hosed because all that you could "call" away would be $44.99 for which you would pay $45. If even some of the purchase is in cash, (say, 50/50 cash and stock) you would still have some ability to recover based on the time value of the stock portion, but in reality if you own calls and it's not an all stock deal you will likely see the value of your options fall if they remain out of the money after the sale.
    Jun 16, 2015. 06:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World [View article]
    A great article that everyone should read. This is exactly how I think about finding a great investment -- where are the actors who have goals other than profit maximization, and how can I meet that need? You don't see many people writing about the market this way. As you put it so well, expecting to make money because you are smarter or work harder than the next guy is a dubious proposition at best.
    Jun 8, 2015. 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Quality Of Earnings: A Quick Rebuttal [View article]
    IBM is not playing games with EPS. As your numbers so clearly point out, they are just using all available excess cash flow (after investing in the business) to buy what they think is a quality asset at a fire sale price: IBM stock. Are they right? Time will tell, but financing a net 5.5 Billion of stock buybacks over 5 years is chump change for a company of this size. The key question with IBM isn't financial engineering, it's growth. They are priced right now as if they will never grow revenue and earnings again, so if they do the stock is cheap. If not, then it's priced about right IMO.
    Jun 4, 2015. 09:56 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Vs. Transocean Partners [View article]
    Thanks! That's what I like to hear. In that case, selling the '17 13$ puts for $2.85 seems very attractive. I will have to look into this more.
    May 27, 2015. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Vs. Transocean Partners [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Does RIG have any potential liquidity issues? Is there any scenario (short of WW3, global cat. etc) that has RIG go bankrupt in the next 3 years? I don't follow the company, and ask because the market seems to be pricing in a not insignificant risk of total loss given the obvious potential upside. Thanks!
    May 27, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Not Buying The Panic, This 9% MLP Yield Is Secure [View article]
    ARLP may be the best house on a VERY crappy block, but I think the only question that matters is "is the coal industry in terminal decline?" Before you say no way, think about what happens when utility scale solar becomes cheaper all in than coal.(that would be yesterday). And then it will get cheaper still. Who will build a coal plant, when they can build solar cheaper? The installed base will be used for decades, but if there is no growth, will the coal producers have to take whatever price they can get? And what about the massive production expansion in Australia? I know this may not impact ARLP very much because of transport costs, but extra supply is never a good thing.
    May 27, 2015. 09:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Risk-Based Liquidity And Systemic Risk [View article]
    Great article. Very well put.
    May 9, 2015. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean's Quarter Was A Slam Dunk [View article]
    Great article, and congrats on your estimates. Have you done any modeling on what it would take for RIG to go bankrupt? The common and the bonds seem to be pricing in a not insignificant chance of this happening. To put it another way, what would cause you to say "I was wrong, things are getting worse than I expected, and I need to sell RIG" Oil at $20? A certain % of idled rigs? Just wondering where the tipping point is in your opinion, and what metric you would use as your canary in the coal mine. Thanks.
    May 8, 2015. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why IBM Might Be's Acquirer [View article]
    If IBM bought CRM at 10x sales I think Buffett would throw up. I know I would drop it like a hot rock.
    I think there is almost zero chance that this happens. The new IBM under Ginny and her new BFF Warren is all about the smart use of capital, even if that means shrinking the empire. Buying CRM would be just the opposite.
    May 1, 2015. 10:01 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Wake Of Tesla Announcement, SunEdison Or SolarCity? [View article]
    I am excited about the relentless march of solar, but I don't see the near term economic case for storage. There may be 150 Billion of losses each year due to blackouts, but spending 20k to put a battery in my basement to avoid a 1% chance of a one day blackout each year seems like a very long stretch. Like generators, they only make economic sense if you are protecting something mission critical for business. Now, if the batteries cost 1k, they would be included in every home -- and all cars would be battery powered. We will get there, but it could be another 10 years.
    May 1, 2015. 09:56 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Struggles Continue In Q1 [View article]
    I believe Russ has sold out of his INTC calls. Says he is waiting for the second half of the year to get back in. Just FYI.
    Apr 21, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weird Stuff For Sale By The Government [View instapost]
    Is the auction for Darryl's compensation package over? Do you know how much it went for? If I was reading it correctly, it had about 19 years left at 106k a year. I would be very curious what kind of cap rate they got for it. I am also a big fan of the tarp warrants, but today most of them seem a bit overpriced compared with just buying leaps. They were a screaming buy a couple of years ago though.
    Apr 17, 2015. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything Has Changed: Oil, Saudi Arabia, And The End Of OPEC [View article]
    The biggest logical problem with this argument is that if the Saudis are just trying to maximize gross revenue on their oil before it is rendered obsolete, then why are they yelling as loudly as they can that the price of oil is going down? In the last few weeks we have seen statement after statement from them trying to jawbone the price of oil lower. If they really thought this was the endgame and they were just trying to get as much money as possible before the music stopped they would be trying to talk the price higher, not lower. They want maximum pain in the oil patch as quickly as possible even if it costs them billions. We can speculate as to why (kneecap the shale drillers, the Iranians etc.) , but this is not consistent with simple profit maximization from an expiring resource.
    Jan 13, 2015. 10:34 AM | 53 Likes Like |Link to Comment