Richard Graham - Seeking Alpha 'Richard Graham' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/richard-graham Why This Rally Will Continue http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed 155933 This rally has been interesting. Some say it is an example of efficient markets pricing in the fact that economic doomsday has passed. Others say it is nothing more than an example of “irrational exuberance.” Unfortunately, both are right. The “green shoots” and “less bad” economic data will eventually bear fruit, which will give the market a real reason to rally. Furthermore, firms will continue to beat low earnings estimates, which will provide the market the momentum it needs to continue its upward march.

The Green Shoots Will Turn into Plants

]]> Thu, 13 Aug 2009 09:02:23 -0400 Richard Graham This rally has been interesting. Some say it is an example of efficient markets pricing in the fact that economic doomsday has passed. Others say it is nothing more than an example of “irrational exuberance.” Unfortunately, both are right. The “green shoots” and “less bad” economic data will eventually bear fruit, which will give the market a real reason to rally. Furthermore, firms will continue to beat low earnings estimates, which will provide the market the momentum it needs to continue its upward march.

The Green Shoots Will Turn into Plants


Complete Story »]]> DIA IVV KBE SPY Richard Graham China's Water Crisis Is an Investment Opportunity http://seekingalpha.com/article/146151-china-s-water-crisis-is-an-investment-opportunity?source=feed 146151

“Water, water, everywhere, but not a drop to drink.”

In 1789, English poet Samuel Taylor Coleridge penned this famous line in The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, a poem that describes the deathly journey of a mariner’s ship. After being cursed for shooting an albatross, the mariner sees his crew slowly die of dehydration, only to be redeemed at the end of the poem for realizing the sins he has committed.

]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 06:55:30 -0400 Richard Graham

“Water, water, everywhere, but not a drop to drink.”

In 1789, English poet Samuel Taylor Coleridge penned this famous line in The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, a poem that describes the deathly journey of a mariner’s ship. After being cursed for shooting an albatross, the mariner sees his crew slowly die of dehydration, only to be redeemed at the end of the poem for realizing the sins he has committed.


Complete Story »]]> DGW INSU VE Richard Graham July Will Be a Turning Point for FAZ http://seekingalpha.com/article/144804-july-will-be-a-turning-point-for-faz?source=feed 144804 July is going to be an interesting month for FAZ. FAZ, which has only been around for less than a year, has already experienced three distinct market environments: a strong bear market with high volatility, a strong bull market, and, recently, a sideways markets primarily marked by low volatility.

July most certainly will be the turning point for FAZ. Most financial institutions report earnings, and, new (most likely surprisingly bad) economic data will be released. These factors ensure higher volatility, which is an important factor to prevent exponential decay in FAZ's price. Whatever direction the market takes, however, it will have a profound effect on FAZ’s price. If the bull market continues (which is highly unlikely), its price will drift towards $2.00 and lower. If a bear market appears (which is highly likely), its price will move into the $6.00 range, but most likely much higher. If the market remains in its current state, FAZ’s price will move to $5.94.

]]> Tue, 23 Jun 2009 06:33:28 -0400 Richard Graham July is going to be an interesting month for FAZ. FAZ, which has only been around for less than a year, has already experienced three distinct market environments: a strong bear market with high volatility, a strong bull market, and, recently, a sideways markets primarily marked by low volatility.

July most certainly will be the turning point for FAZ. Most financial institutions report earnings, and, new (most likely surprisingly bad) economic data will be released. These factors ensure higher volatility, which is an important factor to prevent exponential decay in FAZ's price. Whatever direction the market takes, however, it will have a profound effect on FAZ’s price. If the bull market continues (which is highly unlikely), its price will drift towards $2.00 and lower. If a bear market appears (which is highly likely), its price will move into the $6.00 range, but most likely much higher. If the market remains in its current state, FAZ’s price will move to $5.94.


Complete Story »]]> FAZ Richard Graham Don't Expect Hyperinflation for U.S. Economy http://seekingalpha.com/article/144424-don-t-expect-hyperinflation-for-u-s-economy?source=feed 144424 Almost everyday we hear some new doomsday scenario about the US economy. It goes like this: in its attempt to save the financial sector, the Federal Reserve and the US government have set up an economic disaster. Strategies like quantitative easing, TALF, and massive government spending threaten to create a hyper-inflationary environment by burgeoning the money supply. In effect, poor fiscal and monetary policy has put the US economy on the road to disaster. In theory, this scenario is probably true because it operates as economic theory would dictate. In practice, however, this scenario is highly unlikely. Below are some reasons why this hyperinflation scenario is improbable.

Interest Rate Policy: The FED Funds rate is currently sitting at an all time low of 0.00-0.25%. While low interest rates have substantially expanded the money supply, they also give the FED leeway in conducting its monetary policy. The recent news buzz around a possible FED hike proves that the FED is ready to raise interest rates to help shrink the money supply when inflation returns. Additionally, expectations shape reality. Because consumers and firms believe that the FED will keep inflation under control, they will be less inclined to chase after goods to beat rising prices. The result of this psychological effect is clear: less money chasing goods means less inflation.

]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 08:55:45 -0400 Richard Graham Almost everyday we hear some new doomsday scenario about the US economy. It goes like this: in its attempt to save the financial sector, the Federal Reserve and the US government have set up an economic disaster. Strategies like quantitative easing, TALF, and massive government spending threaten to create a hyper-inflationary environment by burgeoning the money supply. In effect, poor fiscal and monetary policy has put the US economy on the road to disaster. In theory, this scenario is probably true because it operates as economic theory would dictate. In practice, however, this scenario is highly unlikely. Below are some reasons why this hyperinflation scenario is improbable.

Interest Rate Policy: The FED Funds rate is currently sitting at an all time low of 0.00-0.25%. While low interest rates have substantially expanded the money supply, they also give the FED leeway in conducting its monetary policy. The recent news buzz around a possible FED hike proves that the FED is ready to raise interest rates to help shrink the money supply when inflation returns. Additionally, expectations shape reality. Because consumers and firms believe that the FED will keep inflation under control, they will be less inclined to chase after goods to beat rising prices. The result of this psychological effect is clear: less money chasing goods means less inflation.


Complete Story »]]> GLD TBT TIP Richard Graham