Comments on Richard Graham's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/richard-graham/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-638359 638359 Thu, 20 Aug 2009 13:33:41 -0400 bulls are saying the recovery will be sluggish.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-631231 631231 Sat, 15 Aug 2009 18:04:39 -0400
I am pulling back slightly from the market and here are my conflicting thoughts

1) Looking at 5yr and 10 year charts I think the long term is up from here
2) At this moment we are ahead of ourselves and stocks have risen to far to fast.
3) My guess is we drop to a low between 800-850 in the next 3 months.
4) After severe retrenchments however people will not consider and are unable to see positive developments.
5) The comparisons in coming months to freefall frozen credit fears of a year ago should not be hard to beat.
6) I am a PE earnings guy and I dont like the PE valuations. However after the cost cutting that has largely been completed which has restructured businesses to profit at current activity levels I am ok with it.
7) Think Long! Trying to trade the market is difficult. Those profits largely go to flash traders who may see your trade data and take your ideas and profit on them ahead of you. I think it is stealing to get an advance look at others trades but it happens.
8) Based on what I see we drop to 825 in Oct and end the year at 1100. We end 2010 at 1275.

Lots of volatility for the next 3 years. Here's to big profits for all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-631106 631106 Many more reasons for the markets to rally are listed right here, > like it or not. > > > beginning of month = rally > end of month = rally hard > end of quarter = rallying too hard for words > California BK = fiscal rejiggering > Michigan next in line = never mentioned > CRE depression = REIT's explode higher > Housing JUNE sales edge higher = housing is rebounding(again) > GS front running trades = liquidity preservation > Banks own congress and the Fed = bank rally > consumer is insolvent = consumer is saving > mass layoffs = across the board earnings' improvement > earnings are not improving = earnings are beating street's expectations > > STILL no jobs created= the consumer is temporarilly retrenching
deflation > = bull rally > expiration of unemployment benefits = unemployment is abating OR > > contracting(either will do just fine) > Isn't our economy consumer based? = don't ask, don't tell consumer > IS 70% of economy = rebound will be business based > low interest rates = good for stocks > high interest rates = great for stocks > collapsing dollar = buy stocks > rising dollar = not gonna happen > $10 frozen dinner = sure sign of recovery > CIT BK = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY > CIT not yet BK = reason to be bullish > Bank failure Friday = stabilization > oil @ 50 = recovery is close > oil at $70 = recovery is incredibly close > oil at $90 = starting to recover > oil @ $110 = sign of increased consumer spending > oil @ $5 = boon for Joe Consumer > Gas @ $2 = tax break > gas @ $3 = mustard seeds for economic recovery > gas @ $4 = depression :) > Gas @ $1 = not in our lifetime > employment @ 10 % = better than expected > employment @ 11% = as expected > employment @ 12% = not unexpected > employment @ 13% = could have been expected > real unemployment right now @ 17% = never discussed > real unemployment @ 22% = market could correct from here > stealing from our grandchildren = stimulus > stealing from our great grandchildren = "cash for clunkers is a huge > > success" > government buying people cars = economy showing signs of life > economy is already dead = S+P 1000, DOW 10k > bear market rally = NEW bull market rally > no basis for NEW bull market rally = dis-included in pumper's handbook > > > 10% unemployment > effects of socialism > depressionary states > higher taxes = THE NEW NORMAL > oppressive government > social unrest > decending to mediocrity > > > AND IF ALL ELSE FAILS(which probably will): > > WWIII = TANGIBLE MANUFACTURING GREEN SHOOT]]> Sat, 15 Aug 2009 14:18:50 -0400

On Aug 13 11:34 AM j-dub wrote:

> Many more reasons for the markets to rally are listed right here,
> like it or not.
>
>
> beginning of month = rally
> end of month = rally hard
> end of quarter = rallying too hard for words
> California BK = fiscal rejiggering
> Michigan next in line = never mentioned
> CRE depression = REIT's explode higher
> Housing JUNE sales edge higher = housing is rebounding(again)
> GS front running trades = liquidity preservation
> Banks own congress and the Fed = bank rally
> consumer is insolvent = consumer is saving
> mass layoffs = across the board earnings' improvement
> earnings are not improving = earnings are beating street's expectations
>
> STILL no jobs created= the consumer is temporarilly retrenching
deflation
> = bull rally
> expiration of unemployment benefits = unemployment is abating OR
>
> contracting(either will do just fine)
> Isn't our economy consumer based? = don't ask, don't tell consumer
> IS 70% of economy = rebound will be business based
> low interest rates = good for stocks
> high interest rates = great for stocks
> collapsing dollar = buy stocks
> rising dollar = not gonna happen
> $10 frozen dinner = sure sign of recovery
> CIT BK = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY
> CIT not yet BK = reason to be bullish
> Bank failure Friday = stabilization
> oil @ 50 = recovery is close
> oil at $70 = recovery is incredibly close
> oil at $90 = starting to recover
> oil @ $110 = sign of increased consumer spending
> oil @ $5 = boon for Joe Consumer
> Gas @ $2 = tax break
> gas @ $3 = mustard seeds for economic recovery
> gas @ $4 = depression :)
> Gas @ $1 = not in our lifetime
> employment @ 10 % = better than expected
> employment @ 11% = as expected
> employment @ 12% = not unexpected
> employment @ 13% = could have been expected
> real unemployment right now @ 17% = never discussed
> real unemployment @ 22% = market could correct from here
> stealing from our grandchildren = stimulus
> stealing from our great grandchildren = "cash for clunkers is a huge
>
> success"
> government buying people cars = economy showing signs of life
> economy is already dead = S+P 1000, DOW 10k
> bear market rally = NEW bull market rally
> no basis for NEW bull market rally = dis-included in pumper's handbook
>
>
> 10% unemployment
> effects of socialism
> depressionary states
> higher taxes = THE NEW NORMAL
> oppressive government
> social unrest
> decending to mediocrity
>
>
> AND IF ALL ELSE FAILS(which probably will):
>
> WWIII = TANGIBLE MANUFACTURING GREEN SHOOT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630969 630969 Sat, 15 Aug 2009 11:50:45 -0400 I am not invested in any US based securities at the moment.
Finger poised on QID & BGZ though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630955 630955 I think we may now proclaim that this is a very weak article, backed > up by hope. > > To end is a famous quote, "Hope is not a strategy".]]> Sat, 15 Aug 2009 11:32:46 -0400
On Aug 14 11:08 PM Maxe Paul wrote:

> I think we may now proclaim that this is a very weak article, backed
> up by hope.
>
> To end is a famous quote, "Hope is not a strategy".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630933 630933 It is difficult to say if there will be a crash/correction or not. > Personally I think there will be and my portfolio is prepared for > that. But unless by stating the rally will continue you mean we will > hover around 9000-9500 I can't see how you can be right. How high > so you expect the SP500 to rise in the next 6 months? 1200? With > all the contraction since the glory days of 2007 I just don't see > how things can climb to only 20% drop from those all-time highs. > Of course it can be propped up by money injected from the Fed/government > but then you are just riding an artificial wave and you better hope > you time it right. > > At the moment I am 50% cash and plan to see how the autumn plays > out and if things hold I will invest into solid dividend payers since > I expect growth to be small and the market to slide sideways for > the next 2-3 years barring any major corrections.]]> Sat, 15 Aug 2009 10:55:46 -0400
tmr


On Aug 13 10:30 AM gmwright wrote:

> It is difficult to say if there will be a crash/correction or not.
> Personally I think there will be and my portfolio is prepared for
> that. But unless by stating the rally will continue you mean we will
> hover around 9000-9500 I can't see how you can be right. How high
> so you expect the SP500 to rise in the next 6 months? 1200? With
> all the contraction since the glory days of 2007 I just don't see
> how things can climb to only 20% drop from those all-time highs.
> Of course it can be propped up by money injected from the Fed/government
> but then you are just riding an artificial wave and you better hope
> you time it right.
>
> At the moment I am 50% cash and plan to see how the autumn plays
> out and if things hold I will invest into solid dividend payers since
> I expect growth to be small and the market to slide sideways for
> the next 2-3 years barring any major corrections.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630912 630912 Sat, 15 Aug 2009 10:21:05 -0400 A picture is worth 1000 words but in this case a picture could be worth thousands of dollars in your pocket.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630684 630684 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 23:08:05 -0400
To end is a famous quote, "Hope is not a strategy".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630664 630664 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 22:44:21 -0400 www.philadelphiafed.or.../
This gentlemen, is the opportunity of a life time but sadly most of you will not notice even if it kicked you in the rear end.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630594 630594 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 20:03:07 -0400
Sacramento, California - Californians have shown tenacity and courage when it comes to earthquakes, fire seasons and civil unrest such as the Rodney King riots in Los Angeles. However, their patience with their state and local governments, guided largely by the powerful public employee unions and the typically Democrat legislators to whom unions lend their support is waning.
While making good theater, the economic threat to the State of California is real, here and now. The State's credit rating is dead last among all States in the country and, logically, cost for borrowing, if they can borrow at all, is at an all time high. Put another way, the State of California's credit card is maxed out...and the only way out is to add up your liabilities and begin a payment plan to dig the State out of its biggest fiscal hole ever. However, figuring out California's real and total liabilities are akin to a snake hunt, they are hidden in the weeds and quietly waiting to strike. A deadly fiscal rattlesnake awaits California cities and counties, and according to California Pension advisors it will strike next year.
The California State Teacher's Retirement System (CALSTRS) and the California Public Employee Retirement System (CALPERS) were formed to provide retirement, disability and survivor benefits for California's public employees. Combined, these retirement funds represented the biggest pension pool of investment capital in the world totally over $418 billion as recently as June of 2007.
The "dirty little secret" among public employees and Legislators, which passed the laws after intense lobbying by public employee unions, was and is that regardless of the investment gains or losses of funds, taxpayers (at the local, county and State levels) are the "guarantors" of all public employee retiree benefits... for life. Put another way, taxpayers have co signed on every public employee unions retirement package which are increasing in velocity and size at an alarming rate. So, how bad is it?
In the past 24 months, the State of California Public Employee Retirement System has lost over $128 billion...which is almost equal to the entire 2009 State Budget. In June of 2007, both systems assets totaled $413 billion. As of June, 2009, they reported combined assets of on $285 billion. The $128 billion in losses sits on top of an estimated $400 billion of unfunded pension liabilities cementing the likelihood of huge tax increases ahead for city and county governments as they struggle with stifling increases in their "dues" to the State Retirement coffers. This news further fuels the "run" on cash the State legislature is currently contemplating which unilaterally raids city and county coffers in order to address a current $30 billion budget gap in Sacramento. The horrible news for California taxpayers is these investment losses are now their liabilities and, of course, will be offset with either more taxes and user fee increases or deeper draconian cuts in services for the needy, seniors, students, schools and parks. According to CALPERS, city and county taxpayers can expect these increased "dues" to begin to crowd out local needs as early as July of 2010.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630424 630424 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 17:56:54 -0400
However, there is a fatal flaw in "everyone's" underlying presumption that "the recovery will be..." The future tense of the verbal form "will be" is inappropriate in the present circumstance.. There is no more "will be." The odds are that the recovery is past.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630404 630404 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 17:36:03 -0400
Thanks.

5 questions:

www.surveymonkey.com/s...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630271 630271 I don't think this rally will continue because the earnings of companies > are too low relative to their stock prices. And beating low-ball > earnings estimates doesn't in any way make the P/E ratios of these > companies any better. > > Perhaps short-term traders don't care about the actual earnings of > companies. They only care if these earnings are better than expected > or not. Because they don't hold their shares long enough to benefits > from the dividends companies pay. > > But you can't say the same about long-term investors. Long-term investors > do care about the actual earnings of companies in absolute sense. > Because the reason why they invest is to take a share of their company > profits. > > When it doesn't make sense for long-term investors to buy due to > poor company profits in absolute sense. Then the stock market rally > can't continue for long. Because by definition, short-term investors > don't stay invested for long. Sooner or later they start selling. > And that brings an end to the stock market rally.]]> Fri, 14 Aug 2009 15:17:30 -0400

On Aug 13 10:35 AM Nick36 wrote:

> I don't think this rally will continue because the earnings of companies
> are too low relative to their stock prices. And beating low-ball
> earnings estimates doesn't in any way make the P/E ratios of these
> companies any better.
>
> Perhaps short-term traders don't care about the actual earnings of
> companies. They only care if these earnings are better than expected
> or not. Because they don't hold their shares long enough to benefits
> from the dividends companies pay.
>
> But you can't say the same about long-term investors. Long-term investors
> do care about the actual earnings of companies in absolute sense.
> Because the reason why they invest is to take a share of their company
> profits.
>
> When it doesn't make sense for long-term investors to buy due to
> poor company profits in absolute sense. Then the stock market rally
> can't continue for long. Because by definition, short-term investors
> don't stay invested for long. Sooner or later they start selling.
> And that brings an end to the stock market rally.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630135 630135 Great article, that stuff about green shoots could have been written > by Chance the Gardener.]]> Fri, 14 Aug 2009 13:15:28 -0400

On Aug 13 09:30 AM Tom Armistead wrote:

> Great article, that stuff about green shoots could have been written
> by Chance the Gardener.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-630054 630054 wow. reading the notes on this board just confirms the trend. the > clownfest continues on SA. > > so john paulson and co. buying over $2bill of BA and other financials > is the "dumb money" > > what smart money are you referring to your majesty? go back to channel > surfing > > look. dudes. when you are wrong - you just have to admit it. and > move on. this debate is kind of over. today's data on Germany is > interesting. It is an export economy. so someone somewhere is buying > stuff. libor spread is back to normal - that's bad? no actually that's > good, 30 year treasury auction was good - is that bad? no that's > good. > > dear reader, bear with me. I need to spell stuff out for the clowns. > > > what you people want is someone tocome and ring the bell and tell > you it will all be alright. > > you are in a low inflation, moderate US/good non-US growth envrionment > with cheap money. figure it out. > > no everything goes up or get's better all at the same time. clowns > you need to be reasonable. > > foreclosures blah, blah, blah - lagging indicator - worse than unemployment > rate > consumer spending blah, blah, blah. does not have to grow enormously > to drive growth here - inventories are so bare an inceease in demand > could be a bad thing in the short run. do any of you ever get into > the stores? since when is June a hard shopping month. > > recovery is here. > > > > > > ]]> Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:28:07 -0400

On Aug 13 08:31 PM FB5000 wrote:

> wow. reading the notes on this board just confirms the trend. the
> clownfest continues on SA.
>
> so john paulson and co. buying over $2bill of BA and other financials
> is the "dumb money"
>
> what smart money are you referring to your majesty? go back to channel
> surfing
>
> look. dudes. when you are wrong - you just have to admit it. and
> move on. this debate is kind of over. today's data on Germany is
> interesting. It is an export economy. so someone somewhere is buying
> stuff. libor spread is back to normal - that's bad? no actually that's
> good, 30 year treasury auction was good - is that bad? no that's
> good.
>
> dear reader, bear with me. I need to spell stuff out for the clowns.
>
>
> what you people want is someone tocome and ring the bell and tell
> you it will all be alright.
>
> you are in a low inflation, moderate US/good non-US growth envrionment
> with cheap money. figure it out.
>
> no everything goes up or get's better all at the same time. clowns
> you need to be reasonable.
>
> foreclosures blah, blah, blah - lagging indicator - worse than unemployment
> rate
> consumer spending blah, blah, blah. does not have to grow enormously
> to drive growth here - inventories are so bare an inceease in demand
> could be a bad thing in the short run. do any of you ever get into
> the stores? since when is June a hard shopping month.
>
> recovery is here.
>
>
>
>
>
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629957 629957 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 11:41:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629951 629951 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 11:38:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629934 629934 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 11:31:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629923 629923 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 11:27:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629845 629845 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 10:50:08 -0400
But it's all a grate success anyway. Incentive to stimulate sales still is to breathh clearner if not any freer but is the price worth paying up in full? So give us your sale pitich without the hook and bait tactic.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629804 629804 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 10:40:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629768 629768 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 10:27:27 -0400 Could it be that the unemployed[sitting at home & bitter about being fired for among other things not being a team player at work] are the ones with the time to support the under-employed/unemployed making the negative comments??????
Yes, we are in a difficult economic environment as a world but did you bother to read that the recession is ending in parts of Europe???
Will that help global companies who sell there??
Oh and one last thing, the CEO/Senior Management of Global companies get compensated based on profit achievement-does anyone think that they are sitting on their hands??? Oh and if you had not read the prospectus, today's Board members get compensated primarily via stocks which of course they would prefer to remain worthless so they work for nothing-Sure????]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629665 629665 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 09:37:17 -0400
I think the rally can continue- not because it should, but because I have lost all confidence in the ability of the equity markets to regress to the mean within a reasonable time period because of intervention, misleading statistics, distorted bank earnings and propaganda.

Will it continue indefinitely? No. We have not seen the bottom, not when 48% of mortgages will be underwater by 2011 at or around the same time that default rates on optionARM and commercial real estate peak. The prime and commercial real estate debacles are still in their early stages. It took a full year for the sub prime markets to from rumblings in the crust in Nov 2007 to full-blown earthquake in Q4 2008. This means we may not see the real carnage for a few months down the road.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629629 629629 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 09:17:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629584 629584 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 08:55:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629535 629535 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 08:19:55 -0400 The market should have never gone so low and it has come up faster than it should have.There are some stock prices that are well below where they should be and vice vera.
Deflation I think is off the table as well as a fast recovery.
Buy Food,energy,materials and clean water technology and you will be fine and happy in a few years.
If recovery happens They will recover nicely and also if inflation comes to pass-you will also be fine]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629412 629412 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 05:46:27 -0400
seekingalpha.com/insta...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629380 629380 Profits rising due to cost cuts mean a deepening recession - what > does cost cutting do to demand?]]> Fri, 14 Aug 2009 03:43:52 -0400
is it really that of a surprise for sales to decline after millions of people lost their jobs? LOL!



On Aug 14 02:38 AM Peter Cooper wrote:

> Profits rising due to cost cuts mean a deepening recession - what
> does cost cutting do to demand?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629361 629361 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 02:38:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629332 629332 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 01:07:23 -0400
you keep wearing them glasses, I'm getting the heck out of dodge (away from the market).

you can not stimulate an economy by taking on more debt and printing more dollars. you can not social engineer consumer confidence without digging a deeper hole for it to plunge into when bad news comes out.

current unemployment numbers misleading, CPI numbers had been inaccurate for decades, dollar index started at 125 around 1985 and is now around 79/80 (with more dollars to be printed). even if the dollar has been weakened to the extreme, the trade deficit keeps growing and the manufacturing base keeps shrinking. many calling for a shift to a service based economy....servicing what?

this weak dollar policy that's been followed for decades and coupled by fake CPI numbers that kept interest rates low have destroyed the currency and add the ridiculous rules, regulations, high taxes that businesses have to endure and you have a recipe for the destruction of a perfectly good economy.

analysts, year after year, decade after decade keep missing the fact that government policies, fake government numbers, and stupid regulations and taxes have all contributed to the decline of the economy. all of those efforts to make a "soft landing" during a recession have contributed in postponing "hard landings" which enables the economy to reset. postponing the hard landings only deepen the trough of the large economic cycle which we are now experiencing.

believe this article if you will, the fact remains, that nothing has improved if you look at the larger picture which encompasses decades of economic decline.]]>