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Richard Hyde  

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  • Apple: I Did Not Ignore The 68 Million iPhone 6 Order Rumor [View article]
    Whether the rumor is correct or not is immaterial. The pent-up demand for the larger iPhone is absolutely huge. Worldwide, the new form factors will greatly increase iPhone sales and absolutely floor the analyst community that keeps having apple die in the out years. Yes, this is a good entry point...The market will not really give apple credit for these expected sales until well into the fall. So you have some time...but its cheap now so if you have the money, take advantage of its sale price.
    Jul 12, 2014. 07:12 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Fragile Pulse [View article]
    Monday Best Buy sent me their Deal of the Day, a Samsung Galaxy 4S for free with 2 year contract. Free! That tells you how their flagship phone is selling. Also remember Gartner has no special info on sales. They use reports from the manufacturers of which only Apple reports sales, Samsung only shipments. I agree with docnaka, Samsung is in a world of hurt. With a fwd PE of 11, $146B in cash, stock buyback, good divvie and bright prospects in 2014, Apple is a very undervalued stock. Not expecting a double, but I think 20% upside in 2014 is a very real possibility.
    Jan 2, 2014. 04:28 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    Michael,
    Merry Christmas and I would wish you a prosperous New Year, but your short position shows it will not be one. The big story this year is China. It is hard to overstate how wildly popular Apple is in China. It is more than a phone its an aspirational status symbol. The new agreement with China Mobile allows for sales to its 760 Million subscribers. Pundits saying this will add 10M or so additional sales are absolutely ignorant of the China market. Apple will likely sell 50M iphones on CM this year. The vast vast majority will be the 5S model. A bigger iphone is likely later this year. Sell your put early in the year because earnings guidance will be very positive and the stock price is up from there. Until then, the big boys will manipulate the stock and it may go under 550. Sorry, you will never see 500 again without a huge market meltdown.
    Dec 30, 2013. 07:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Living On Borrowed Time [View article]
    The author smears Apple with the term "small differences" in apple products. Anyone who uses and chooses apple intentionally, knows the differences are not small. For several years, the iPhone was the only phone that brought the internet to your phone in a fast and smooth way. HUGE. Today, the differences still exist: a network of stores for education, purchase and service. The security differences between iOS and android are not close. The residual value of Apple devices versus Android are substantial (used android devices are also known as "junk") When it comes to upgrading Apple and Android devices to the newest OS, Apple devices are done virtually overnight, Android and their manufacturers, telecoms, dribble them out over months and years. App selection, iTunes integration, and the list goes on and on. These are not small differences.
    I will end, as I have done again and again with the story of Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts, who has bet her $20M salary to come to Apple to run Apple retail. Why would this very smart and accomplished exec do so? For a company of small differences about to die? No, Mr Brooks, not at all. She knows what lays ahead and that future is much different than what you list here. I will bet on her, not you.
    Dec 22, 2013. 12:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm May Follow Apple South As iPhone Volumes Decline In 2014 And Beyond [View article]
    Michael,
    Good luck with your analysis, but you clearly are missing what Apple is all about. For instance today there is a good article in Forbes discussing iBeacon, iWallet and payment transactions on the iphone. We don't know what the end result will be, but the markers are being laid down. (moble ecommerce transactions are a huge untapped market right now) Apple's smartphone marketshare still has much room to grow, especially at the expense of Android. iPads, have a very long way to go before saturation. Finally, as I mentioned before there is Angela Ahrendts. She is the highest paid CEO in the UK and is giving it all up to join Apple? Why? Unlike you, she has real skin in the game, she was paid $26M in 2012. She is leaving because she was shown the future of Apple and its worth $26M a year to take the leap. Its clear she was shown things that no analyst or SA pundit has been privy to. We don't know what she saw, but I think I will bet on her rather than your Apple is dying motif. Lets check back in 2 years and see how things go. By the way, long Apple, big time.
    Dec 8, 2013. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Would-Be Shorts: Bide Your Time, Apple's Run Will Be Over Soon Enough [View article]
    Michael,
    Lets pretend for a second that you had near perfect information on Apple's present financials and future product pipeline. Lets pretend that you are a very savvy business exec and financials exec and you know all about the mobile market and likely trends. Apple takes you into their confidence and says this is where we are heading. Then they ask you, will you bet $27M on Apple's future? What would you do? Well the CEO of Burberry, Angela Ahrendts, took that bet. She is betting her future on Apple's pipeline. She left her "sure thing" CEO job as the highest paid CEO on the UK to become retail chief at Apple. Now don't you think she is just a wee bit more knowledgeable about Apple than you or I? Just think about that next time you want to short Apple. I am betting you will not short Apple next Jan or anytime in the near future. Its a woefully undervalued freight train. I think I will stick with Angela's assessment of Apple, not yours.
    Nov 29, 2013. 05:35 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is In Deep Trouble: A Reformed Bull Speaks Out [View article]
    Ok. No one here has seen Apple's pipeline, which the author claims does not exist anyway. But let's pretend Tim Cook brought you to Cupertino and gave your the preview of coming attractions. At the end of the presentation he said risk everything and join us or just keep you $20m plus job. Well luckily we don't have to pretend. Angela Ahrendts, Burberry CEO, the highest paid CEO in the UK is giving up her job to join Apple. Now why would she do this? To join a sinking ship? As our learned 6 year MBA author suggests? Maybe she is just really really stupid eh Mr Arnold of Miss State cowbell fame? Or maybe just maybe she has seen the future and said she wants to be a part of the most revolutionary company in business today. There is No Doubt Tim Cook gave her the tour. None. So on who do we place our bets, one of the most talented and successful CEOs in the UK or a Blogger with an MBA managing his 50k account? It's not a trick question.
    Oct 24, 2013. 05:31 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Is Done [View article]
    When Apple announced and first sold the iPhone, I said RIMM was walking dead. But I was surprised that it took a year or two before the market realized RIMM was dead and then the rest is history. Not sure how much time the market will give Pandora, but doubt it will be a year or two, more like a month or two.
    Sep 22, 2013. 08:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The World Is Apple's Growth? [View article]
    This is an interesting article, but adds nothing to the debate on Apple. Apple has to come out with a new product to move the needle on growth. A low cost phone would increase revenue but kill their margins and as you (and others have said) China Mobile, Japan De Como can help a bit with their networks selling iphones. Stock buyback helps EPS. Not much more out there without some news from Apple. Until then, all these articles on Apple just keep repeating the same well known facts.
    May 27, 2013. 08:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandridge Could Be Further Negatively Impacted By Poor Trust Well Performance [View article]
    Well whatever is driving SDR I am a happy camper.
    May 4, 2013. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandridge Could Be Further Negatively Impacted By Poor Trust Well Performance [View article]
    I purchased SDR not long ago and so have a vested interest in that trust. The production numbers reported this week are not encouraging. Despite adding 20% more wells on line, Combined MBoe production dropped from 521 to 518. The increase in natural gas prices gave us a slight uptick in payout this quarter. Management only cites "Lower natural gas production" as the reason for the lower production...well thanks for that blinding flash of the obvious. Maybe these guys will be more forthcoming on the conf call. But shareholders are left scratching their heads. The share price does not seem out of line, but if gas production is already heading down....why stick around?
    Apr 27, 2013. 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Story: Only The Beginning? [View article]
    "The fact is that Apple has to date not enjoyed as much success in Asia as in North America"
    Last quarter Apple did over $15B in China, Japan, and Pacific and just over $20B in the Americas. So you are right "not as much success" but you clearly have no idea how much success they have had. They are up 67% year over year in China and thats without China Mobile and only a handfull of stores. Your comment about Blackberry indicates you have no idea what is going on in the smartphone marketplace. Microsoft? really?
    Apr 13, 2013. 06:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II - Good News Buried In Proven Reserve Report [View article]
    I bought some under 12. I am impressed with the comeback in Natural Gas prices. Not a huge investment, but I think one worth some risk capital at this level. Also something of an inflation hedge moving forward. Appreciate the great article.
    Apr 12, 2013. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Most People Should Neither Trade Nor Try To Analyze Apple's Stock [View article]
    As a long time Apple bull, this drop caught me by surprise. We talk about Apple's froth and parabolic climb, but at the height its PE was less than 20, when the stock was at 700. The PE is now about 9. This with no debt and $140B in cash. I compared its PE to the Dow 30 and only 3 or 4 stocks had lower PEs. Thats the Dow! Old line, slow growth companies. GE which almost went backrupt, has $300B in debt is a PE of 17. So the conumdrum is why Apple fell so hard so fast. Its last quarter it reported good rev growth and some earnings growth if you took into account a 13week versus last year 14 week accounting period. I get it that earnings results this quarter are going to be much less y/y than last year. Estimates have been ratcheted down. But the current price of Apple knows no peer in terms of business, profitibility and cash on hand compared to the market. MSFT (PE of 15 with the PC market crashing) , Google (price per click keeps going down, but make it up on volume), Amazon? Amazon has a PE of 300, but I never hear how its overpriced. (I know its going to make big money someday...) So as a sane investor, you just have to wonder...sell now? Really? I also realize that good news is not coming for a few months, maybe summer, maybe fall with some new products. But the smartphone market keeps growing, tablet market keeps growing, Apple Mac market keeps growing (though slowly at this point), service revenue for Apps and itunes is growing, only iPods are weakening. Apple TV will likely be a big hit, but not sure when it will show up. Apple wallet, apple streaming music, iWatch...all seem like good ideas, though not huge gamechangers like the TV. So I will sit for now..I think we are scraping along the bottom, barring a huge negative surprise at earnings. But I will admit, next time at 700....
    Apr 12, 2013. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Worrisome About Apple [View article]
    I think this post nails it. Mr Santos is assuming that Apple is sharing in the discount with Walmart, which would give Walmart an unfair advantage among all is vendor partners. Given that finding this deal in Walmart has been like finding a unicorn, it also appears Apple did not pump up the volume of iphones in the stores. Likely all that Apple did was say if you want to sell the iPhone 5 as your loss leader, you have our blessing. This Christmas season is shaping up to be a very bad one due to fiscal cliff concerns etc as reported by the financial media. Walmart locked in a fierce battle with Amazon and Target is discounting the hottest item of the season to drive store traffic, much of that traffic frustrated that the phone is not in stock. Mr Santos has leaped on this to make assumptions that are not provable, but due to Apple's notorious silence on these issues is not disprovable. But common sense suggests there is no way Apple would offer a special discount only to Walmart among all its sales partners and channels. Hopefully this question will be asked at Earnings Release by an analyst and Mr Santos can publish his retraction.
    Dec 21, 2012. 06:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
64 Comments
320 Likes