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Richard Pearson

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  • Trouble Is Brewing At Farmer Brothers Coffee [View article]
    no, that is my point precisely.

    this stock is often thinly traded and not well covered. many holders are index funds.

    the information is not baked into the price at all.

    if it were, stock would be below $10 again (JMHO).

    Thanks for the compliment on the research by the way. I know you have been bullish for some time, so I appreciate you keeping it civil.

    thanks

    rp
    Jan 7 12:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Detailed Look At Organovo [View article]
    actually chaz, in the few months after my article, the TSL steadily fell and ended up down by nearly 50% for the exact reasons I cited.

    of course, subsequent developments did help to propel them higher. good for them.

    if you really feel that way, then perhaps you should buy some onvo today.
    Nov 19 11:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Detailed Look At Organovo [View article]
    actually chaz, in the few months after my article, the TSL steadily fell and ended up down by nearly 50% for the exact reasons I cited.

    of course, subsequent developments did help to propel them higher. good for them.

    if you really feel that way, then perhaps you should buy some onvo today.
    Nov 19 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Miss Will Send TearLab Sharply Lower [View article]
    thanks all. i do not really care much about the semantics of whether or not they want to call this a "beat" or a "miss" in the headlines.

    i guess my only point was that the numbers would be bad and the stock would trade sharply lower.

    i spent months doing this research, including dozens of phone calls to doctors around the country. this was the same type of work i did on IRG and FRAN and the results ended up being reliable and predicitve.
    Nov 15 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Miss Will Send TearLab Sharply Lower [View article]
    congrats. you obviously know how to read and repeat the brief headline that came out on TEAR. But if you take a closer look at the numbers, you will understand why the stock is now down 10% despite this "beat"
    Nov 13 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Miss Will Send TearLab Sharply Lower [View article]
    thanks. just did. hope you did well.
    Nov 12 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Miss Will Send TearLab Sharply Lower [View article]
    the cost of the test is so low (less than $30) that reimbursement should not have mattered massively if the test actually mattered.

    the point is that people will only take this incredibly cheap test if it is free...and even then it is not widely used.

    the test has been marketed for 5 years and yet simply does not get uptake from doctors.

    it had been described as "the NEW gold standard" for dry eye testing in 1994. If the med community hasn't adopted it by now, then it probably doesn't have a bright future.

    we have seen once again that they can drive small incremental increases in sales...but only through very large marketing spend.
    Nov 12 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi: Experts Weigh In On China's EV Market [View article]
    the stock consistently jumps on non event "news". it is always great for a trade, either long on the way up or short on the inevitable pull back. just like every other promotion.
    Oct 29 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neonode: Investors Feel Duped, Shares To Fall Further [View article]
    I find it comical to see the criticisms from these pumpers even after their pumps have failed so badly.

    Here is what the pumpers do with these stocks (KNDI, ONVO and NEON all fit the same examples)

    1. Write hyper bullish articles, predicting an astronomical share price (usually around $20-30 for each of these)

    2. The pumpers don't have any expectation that the share price will even come close to these levels. They just want a rise of 20-30%

    3. They make analogies to other (more established) companies which have much larger market caps

    4. When the share price rises: the company issues stock, the insiders sell, the pumpers dump.

    Examples:
    When I wrote about KNDI, the stock was at just over $7. Art Porcari was pumping it in almost 20 articles, claiming that it would be a $30 stock. I predicted that an equity offering and a dump were likely. Within days, the company issued a huge pile of stock and the stock quickly fell to $4.50. It is comical that Porcari is now writing to criticize me here. The stock is at around $5.25 (20% below where I highlighted it and certainly far below the $30 he was hyping it as)

    ONVO was also at around $7 when I wrote about it. Pumpers were calling it a $20-30 stock (some were saying $100). I noted that the company was overvalued at half a billion (they don't even have a sellable product) and that an equity offering would be soon. They quickly sold stock and it went to $4.44. Now the pumpers are still pumping it on these comments...it is at about $5.25...20% below where I highlighted it...and far below the silly pump targets of $20-100.

    Now we can see NEON. It is a company that has churned out hundreds of announcements which are identical to the LG Samsung news. This has resulted in minimal revenues and zero profits since 2009. Yet Tech Guru is telling us that this identical news will send NEON to $27. Instead the insiders sell a few million shares. They then upsize the deal so they can sell more (without any additional proceeds to NEON - just for their own pockets). Then they take 100% of the greenshoe option to sell even more shares (with no proceeds to the company - only their own pockets).

    I certainly do not expect pumpers such as Art and Tech to congratulate me on my thorough analysis or on my track record. The criticism should be expected.

    NEON is being manipulated to allow people to occasionally dump. This will become evident within about 2 weeks, just like the other pumps. This is why is keeps popping but the gains never hold.
    Sep 11 05:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StoneMor: With Dividend At Risk, Shares Could Fall Sharply [View article]
    Whether it is MLP, royalty trust, common stock etc is all the same. The fat is that they cannot pay the dividend without getting money from new investors each time.

    Everyone knows that this cannot be sustained, it is just that no one knows when the party will end.

    There is simply no reason to bear that risk for 3 months until the next hoped for dividend.
    Aug 12 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications Of Organovo Lawsuit [View article]
    Anybody notice that press release just after market close ?

    Funny it should come out on a day when the stock was surging.

    Also funny that the stock crashed 8% in the last 20 min of the day...just before the announcement was made public.

    See you at $4.
    Aug 1 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How U.S. Investors Got Punk'd By Kandi [View article]
    no, no, no.


    the option has value from day one.

    the option can be sold to someone else or hedged immediately. it is free money on day one.

    just like the stock, the options will eventually be worth more money IF the stock goes up and IF the holder keeps holding.

    But there are plenty of investors who are not in the business of gambling on Chinese reverse mergers with multi year bets. Instead, investors like this get a very cheap deal. They sell as fast as they can. They lock in an attractive *RISK FREE* profit. They then move on and repeat the process with other companies.

    It is a much more certain business model than is stock picking on volatile micro caps.
    Jul 12 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How U.S. Investors Got Punk'd By Kandi [View article]
    I see that we once again are growing many comments.

    I will try to get back to as many of them as possible over the next few days.

    In the meantime, I suggest you re-read both of my articles and this time try to decide how much faith you want to put in Kandi vs. me.

    Most readers are long the stock and are so busy trying to attack me that they are ignoring the problems with Kandi. This is not going to help your investment case.

    At the time of my last article, the stock was over $7.00. I made it clear that a financing was in the works. Many ardent longs were quick to attack me for such a prediction.

    Anyone who listened to me got out when the share price was 40% higher. Even if they didn't like what I had to say or the fact that I was (and still am) short the stock.

    Yet many people continue with the personal attacks to divert attention from the problems at Kandi.

    Like I said, I will get back to as many comments as possible over the next few days.

    In the meantime, good luck.
    Jul 11 12:09 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How U.S. Investors Got Punk'd By Kandi [View article]
    The volatility changes from day to day.

    At the time the warrants were given, I used the vol which corresponded to the longest dated options I could see.

    I deliberately included all inputs so that anyone can run their own option model and come up with their own valuation.

    Even if you use the lowest possible vol, you will get a value for the options of millions of dollars that was given to these investors for free.

    Feel free to run your own numbers if you like. The point is that a) the options were very valuable and b) they were given away for free in order to subsidize the purchase of stock at $6.03
    Jul 10 11:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How U.S. Investors Got Punk'd By Kandi [View article]
    Look at your option chain screen.

    Out of the money options are not worthless just because the stock is below the strike price. There is huge time value involved here.

    Out of the money options have huge value and can be sold or used as a hedge.
    Jul 10 11:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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69 Comments
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