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Richard Richter

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  • Advaxis's ADXS-HPV Phase 2 Results In Context [View article]
    Alphaplay -

    Regarding control groups, if you skim through the links of the 5 trials I mentioned at the beginning of the article that did not measure PFS or OS, you will so that 4 out of 5 of those trials also lacked a control group. Nevertheless they gained approval. This includes Pharmacyclics, and wow, look where that stock went...

    I should have noted at the beginning of the article that another red herring besides PFS and OS is control groups. They are less important than people think.

    The FDA can reject whatever it wants. They simply don't care much about cervical cancer because it is not high on the minds of the US medical community. This is an Asian issue, and Asian Big Pharma has certainly NOT ignored Advaxis.
    Feb 18 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advaxis's ADXS-HPV Phase 2 Results In Context [View article]
    Don -

    My thinking is more or less in line with yours. I am not relying on FDA approval for stock gains, as the HPV market is not very lucrative in the US anyway. There are already two approved and effective HPV vaccines, so cervical cancer is quite rare within FDA jurisdiction anyway. In other words, even if approved, ADXS-HPV won't have a large patient base in the US.

    I'm relying on my intuition and past experience. GBP and TBC are puting up a lot more money and resources than we are, and these are Asia's Big Pharma equivalents. Big Pharma usually has connections to regulatory agencies. Call it connection or corruption, it's the reality, and these entities would not be partnering with a company like Advaxis if they didn't think the chances were at least decent that they could get an approval within a reasonable time frame. How long I don't know exactly as I am less familiar with Asian regulatory turf. But I would say long before 2018 as your guess for FDA approval.
    Feb 18 01:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advaxis's ADXS-HPV Phase 2 Results In Context [View article]
    The quick answer is that an increase in allowable shares is only potential dilution, not actual, yet. The broad answer is that unless your are trading trial stage biotechs short term, which I consider to be a very bad idea, dilution does not matter unless it is repeated over and over again for years and years, say a decade. In my perspective, a stock like ADXS is only a buy if one believes in its technology and marketing. Personally, I do, so regardless of possible dilution here and there, I am expecting any gains to far outpace dilutive losses by orders of magnitude.

    Dilution is only an issue for short term traders. For those determined to see it through approval, it is less of a problem.
    Feb 18 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin: A Test Case For The ULTRA Orphan Strategy [View article]
    I considered that as well at first, but do a search for "RTRX penny stock promotion" or any combination or variation of that phrase, and you won't find any newsletters. The committee in charge of approving uplisting to the Nasdaq looks at things like that before approving any move. So does SA, by the way. It's not hard to find when a stock is truly being pumped. Google knows all.
    Jan 16 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin: A Test Case For The ULTRA Orphan Strategy [View article]
    Shkreli's tactics have already been elucidated and his history as a hedge fund manager detailed in an earlier article on RTRX. Go to its quote page, you'll see it.
    Jan 16 06:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin: A Test Case For The ULTRA Orphan Strategy [View article]
    Shkreli's tactics have been and are grey, but they have never been illegal. As for antitrust suits and monopolies, there is no such thing as "monopoly" unless it is enforced by law. As for the outcome of these cases, I can't tell you a thing. Antitrust law is irrational and arbitrary, as antitrust law makes no inherent sense. If trusts are illegal, then no one can cooperate about anything.

    It's that old joke. Three guys are in prison. One guys says he was put away because he set prices too high, and they arrested him for price gouging. The second guy says he was put away for lowballing, he set his prices too low. The third guy says he was put away for breaking antitrust laws. He set his prices the same as everyone else.

    It just depends on the feelings of the judge, and I have no idea how to predict that. Do you?
    Jan 16 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Barely Surviving Recession, Future Finally Brightening For WPCS [View article]
    My only comment is in stocks like this, you have to be less emotional with day to day news. WPCS is more or less level from where it was when I wrote this piece. If you believe in the industry and management, they'll find a way to make money. If you don't, there are thousands of other stocks to buy. Wait and see, and I believe patience will be rewarded.
    Jan 6 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Agenus' QS-21 Stimulon Vaccine Adjuvant [View article]
    I'm not sure if you read my article, but I make zero mention of the Gates foundation or anything having to do with Gates. So obviously I do not think Agenus and Gates are related. As regards the price range, yes, it has been hovering, but only after IMUC failed did AGEN reach a new 52 week low. It would affect AGEN less, as Agenus is not exclusively focused on GBM. Nevertheless, the IMUC failure has affected it somewhat.
    Dec 16 04:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Agenus' QS-21 Stimulon Vaccine Adjuvant [View article]
    MedGuy -

    I get you in regard to the 15% reduction in viral shedding. But the 37% reduction in viral load? That is impressive in my book. Let's see what happens when the post booster results come in.
    Dec 16 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oncology Misdirection And The Man Behind The Curtain [View article]
    This article was not about Allovectin. If you want to read about Allovectin and its prospects, there are 9 other articles to choose from just on SA with Allovectin in the title, as mentioned. The point was not to say that Allovectin is unimportant, but rather that it's importance is overstated, and focus on the company should be broader than just Allovectin. This is why the focus was on Vical's CMV pipeline instead.
    Jul 29 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Correctly Reading Cash Flows And Balance Sheets: ImmunoCellular Vs. Northwest Biotherapeutics [View article]
    Red -

    I'm not sure we're disagreeing here. Primary completion is not topline results. It is the date where the final subject is examined for the purpose of primary data collection. This means that, as estimated by clinicaltrials.gov, the final subject in the trial will be examined at or around June 2013. Final results will not be available until a year afterward. Whether NWBO will need another dillutive financing depends on what the main expenses are in this trial, and whether a different source of revenue opens up.

    You may be correct that another financing may be needed, I certainly cannot deny that. But my point is that even if there is another dilution, if DCVax-L succeeds, it won't much matter anyway. And if it fails, it won't matter either.
    Feb 27 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correctly Reading Cash Flows And Balance Sheets: ImmunoCellular Vs. Northwest Biotherapeutics [View article]
    Red -

    About my timing, it's not mine. It's as listed, estimated, at clinicaltrials.gov. If that's off, then it should be updated. As for topline results, yes, 2014 is the estimated date. See here regarding estimated primary completion date:

    http://1.usa.gov/ZAp0MM
    Feb 27 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correctly Reading Cash Flows And Balance Sheets: ImmunoCellular Vs. Northwest Biotherapeutics [View article]
    Fox -

    I would by very wary of using the main stream media or Sanjay Gupta as my guru for picking stocks. Media creates hype, hype attracts novices, novices sell quickly. This aside, PII results may indeed be well received for IMUC. Though the discrepancy between clinicaltrials.gov and IMUC's press releases raise questions. See my response to Gordon above.

    As for NWBO, they indeed do have a partnership with Fraunhofer in Germany and King's College in London helping with the PIII trial, as well as a $5.5M grant from the German government. Not all the hoopla of Big Pharma, but still significant. The longer NWBO can hold out on its own, the better position the company will be if and when FDA gives DCVax-L the go ahead.
    Feb 27 04:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correctly Reading Cash Flows And Balance Sheets: ImmunoCellular Vs. Northwest Biotherapeutics [View article]
    Gordon -

    From NWBio's website on the PI results: http://bit.ly/VMMdf5

    Data from two Phase I clinical trials on DCVax®-L carried out at UCLA continue to mature: investigators continue to measure the delays in disease progression and the extensions of overall survival in DCVax®-L treated patients who survive. To date, the clinical data have shown a median survival of 33.8 months (and continuing) for DCVax®-L treated patients, with 9 of 19 patients still alive from 8-82 months after initial surgery. Most of these patients have no evidence of tumor recurrence. Four of these patients have survival times without progression or recurrence of their cancer that now extends beyond 45 months.

    As for IMUC, data on its PI trials for GBM are here: http://bit.ly/YYb3aD

    A word of caution though, the current IMUC phase II trials screened 278 patients, but enrolled less than 200. 278 patients were not enrolled as IMUC claims. See the clinicaltrials.gov info on this here: http://1.usa.gov/VMMdf6
    Feb 27 04:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correctly Reading Cash Flows And Balance Sheets: ImmunoCellular Vs. Northwest Biotherapeutics [View article]
    Wussel -

    NWBO didn't just "decide to upgrade" the study totally on its own authority and "call it" a phase III out of the blue. NWBO got the approval of the FDA and its international partners in the PIII, Fraunhoffer and King's College, to agree. Apparently, both the FDA and NWBO's partners were impressed enough with the PI results that phase II was effectively skipped. Another impressive cost cutting, and more importantly time cutting measure by NWBO management that has helped keep it alive as far as I'm concerned.
    Feb 27 04:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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