Richard Saintvilus

Long/short equity, deep value, growth at reasonable price
Richard Saintvilus
Long/short equity, deep value, growth at reasonable price
Contributor since: 2011
Kadie -
This article was written last April when the stock traded around $17. Two months later it reached $21.19, just shy of my $22 target. Obviously there are some fundamental challenges that the market doesn't like.
The company has since struggled with new home orders, orders per community and a high cancellation rate. So while the stock does appear cheaper today than when I last discussed its prospect, there's tons of fundamental improvements needed before I'm compelled to buy or recommend it.
Could $16.26 have been the bottom in SSYS shares?
It's early, but could $6 -- reached on Wednesday -- be the bottom in DDD?
Good stuff, Ian. Thanks!
Sirifair6 -
"I remember a time where you were quite stubborn arguing that siri was a joke of a company. I rebuffed your opinion of siri doom dozens of times."
In the my defense, the fact that the company was to the brink of bankruptcy and having been (essentially) given to John Malone for about $15K and cup of coffee -- these were fresh on people's minds. And Karmazin, thanks to mistakes with the XM mergers, had lost tons of credibility.
Still, the bottom line is -- you were right and I was wrong. And I don't mind changing my opinion, given the drastic improvements the company and current management has made.
CN -
I've just published on post on Investopedia, detailing some of the same guidance issues Stephen points out in his article here:
Separately, while Stephen and I haven't always seen eye-to-eye on most SIRI-related matters, I think it's a stretch to hold him to share-price predictions he made three years ago. A lot has changed since then, and it's within Stephen's right to change his mind accordingly. We've all done it.
Stubbornness and holding on to an opinion, regardless of new information, doesn't work very well in the stock market.
CN -
"Misleading" is somewhat of an overreaction here, don't you think?
From the headline, one can also extract -- while Sirius has the funds, they may be prioritized for other purposes. In which case, it would need to come up with 'additional' funds to pay Stern what Stern believes he's worth.
Sometimes, having earmarked funds is like not having funds for things that may come up. Some call it a budget.
Despite the stock's recent punishment, it's possible for SSYS to fall below $20. The valuation still doesn't make sense with the company's growth prospects.
Consider, purely from a relative valuation perspective with DDD, shares of SSYS are priced at 61 times forward estimates of 38 cents a share. By contrast, DDD is priced at 24 times forward estimates. Both are trading at 52-week lows, yes. But DDD -- having better gross margin and operating margin -- is much closer to fair value. Not to mention, DDD is struggling less in revenue.
This is something to think about for those who think either stock has already seen the worst. The market is still sorting this out.
Be careful.
Anyone see a bottom in this stock yet?
Anyone see a bottom here yet?
Stephen -
"Richard read my articles that mentioned $4 resistance. ;)"
I've read a couple, though I have not commented. Now that I'm long, I'm interested in multiple perspectives. Admittedly, some of your takes have been on point -- particularly in terms of options. For hedging purposes, that's where my interest lies at for the moment.
You are correct that I bought at the top, but as I have done for years, I'm trading in-and-out of the stock while I hold a core position. To your point about "mentions of pullback, patterns" and such -- you're dead on about that.
The 5-cent incremental moves ($3.90 to $3.95 or $3.95 to $4.00) has been profitable. Now that I've averaged lower by 15 cents, they will continue to be even more profitable once the stock re-establishes its range. It will take a couple more days to figure out what that range is. Once it does, wash-rinse-repeat.
CN -
Stephen's comments appear to have been in a private note to you, not a "call" as you described it. If he was right or wrong, only you would know.
Seems like you're drowning in kudos and you're just willing to part with them at any opportunity. You should consider putting them in a vending machine and make some money.
Anyway, the Mets look like the real deal this year. I'm a diehard. So far, I've been more impressed with their offense then their pitching. Still, though we're 6.5 games up, I'm not counting out the Nats out just yet. I've seen a meltdown before.
If I'm right, I'll gladly accept some kudos.
CN -
I took the recent selloff as a buying opportunity and reduced my cost basis by 15 cents to $3.73. Indeed, the buybacks have shown to have had minimal impact on the stock, but it will in terms of EPS on future reports.
"Kudos to SF for his call about the difficulty of holding $4."
Are you suggesting SF went out on a limb with this call? The stock has shown (on numerous attempts) it can't hold $4. What's the kudos for?
Kudos would have been for taking a stance, saying it 'will' hold $4.
That's like you patting me on the back for 'predicting' and being correct that the Chicago Cubs won't win the world series this year, even though it hasn't happened in over 100 years.
For what it's worth, I've just close my short today on SSYS. Let's see what happens from here.
Good luck to all!
Ran -
It depends on your definition of "monetize."
Darren -
Consensus 2016 EPS estimates still calls for 86 cents a share. I don't see a scenario where it comes close to that target. This tells me analysts are still too optimistic about the company's prospects. And after the the conference call this week, those estimates should come down. At that point -- I think -- the stock reaches single digits.
Congrats, Darren. At this time, I don't see what's going to keep the stock from reaching single digits. Do you?
How do you feel about you prior comment today, CAIKEN1?
Management just said "easy growth for 3D printing is over."
Can't be any more blunt than that.
Thanks, Illuminati. But people have lost tons of money on this stock. I'm not going to cheer about that, although I am happy to have (possibly) helped others from avoiding a huge mistake. But what I'd like to understand is where the floor is on this stock and at what point will the bearish reversal start. And unfortunately, management hasn't said/done anything to suggest a turnaround is possible anytime soon. This stock/industry (including SSYS, XONE and others) remain highly speculative.
The stock has dropped by as much as 15% since this comment. I still see SSYS as a short to $30. Regardless of the where the industry is moving, companies still must execute. I don't see SSYS as a solid executioner. Not yet.
Equitable Research -
"Broken Clock" ... haha, good one.
DDD just reached my $20 short target. Look out for my next article. Enjoy your weekend, everyone!
Thanks, Paul.
People don't like to hear/read bad things about their investments. They're too emotionally tied to their biases. So I understand. That's why I didn't bother responding (then) to the angry comments -- I expected them, just like I expected CHK stock to fall.
Thanks for the comment. Hope you protected yourself.
"Apple's decision to raise capital from the Japanese debt market is indicative of the overlying environment in which investment banks are able to generate underwriting volume, as the implementation of CCAR is going to gradually diminish the size of the lending books for G-SIB banks."
Can you put this reference in plain English?
Do you mean to say, money is cheap -- therefore investment banks are making a killing with these bond offerings, which help them offset loss revenue from other parts of their businesses that are under stricter government regulation?
Your writing -- I think -- will be more clear if you use less acronyms. Don't assume everyone knows what CCAR and G-SIB mean. You risk alienating parts of your audience who have to leave your article to lookup the terms CCAR and G-SIB.
In short, your article says you agree with Apple's CFO Luca Maestri, is that it? In your estimation his job is safe, then, right?
You offered me some "constructive criticism" recently. I'm returning the favor.
Nate23423 -
"Nobody cares if you are disappointed, angry, or apologizing."
Seeing as there are almost 300 comments on this article, I would say you're wrong :-)
johnarendsen -
"I won't be asking you for any advice anytime soon."
Works for me. I'm not licensed to do so, anyways. And I wouldn't recommend you taking investment advice from anyone on the Internet, including authors here on Seeking Alpha.
I only discuss MY TRADES and what I do :-)
You should put your faith ONLY in your own research and no one else's.
Best of luck to you, sir :-)
UncleFred -
"$130 also seems to offer tremendous support."
Ask me that tomorrow :-)
trdr2012 -
"consider Barnum and Bailey's as a pathetic clown."
I would, but I hold a short position on Circuses, especially those featuring clowns. I had a childhood nightmare -- long story.
"I am a long term owner of the stock but I don't subscribe to "pick a number" short-term predictions because I realize that AAPL stock price is tempered by options activity."
Thanks for sharing :-)
Good stuff, Catbird. You absolutely get it. And, look, there's nothing wrong with going out on a limb :-)
I think the 7:1 split was to get AAPL into the Dow. Mission accomplished. Another 2:1 will get it to Icahn's target of $240 :-)
dmulroney -
"There is someone on each side of each deal."
You're assuming those trades were one-and-done -- that they took their losses and moved on. It simply doesn't work that way. As long as AAPL remains volatile, the traders are making money, broadly speaking.
My point is, "Buy and hold,' meanwhile (there's nothing wrong with it, by the way) has depressed those that have held the past three months. But that's not expected to last much longer. AAPL, after consolidating, is setting up for a strong bullish move higher. It's like a ticking time bomb. I expect 15% to 20% move soon.
But then again, look at my prediction track record, right :-)
lakeartemesia2 -
You're preaching to the choir with the $140. Come to think of it... I'm the orchestra director of that symphony :-)