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Richard Saintvilus

 
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  • Sirius XM Is a Purely Speculative Bet [View article]
    Dr. Gulseven -

    I appreciate the article. But do you realize that the concerns that you have raised are not unique? I'm not at all saying that to be offensive, but my point is, the investment community (or wall street) have had these same concerns since the stock traded at .45 cents. Yet during that time, the company has steadily extinguished debt while improving its metrics.

    I think you are being a bit too critical and disingenuous by the following statements...

    "The company concentrates its main efforts on adding new customers. "

    Is this not the same for every company? Please be gracious enough to tell me what business does not concentrate on acquiring more customers?

    "$156 a year amounts to $1560 a decade."

    Doc, this amounts to .43 cents per day. I know its a tough economy and all. But driver waste 10X that much just by sitting idle for 2 minutes at stop lights.

    You also say...

    "instead of profits players tend to believe in other indicators, such as the number of users, or average revenue per user. Surely, Sirius XM's management knows how to emphasize these "unconventional metrics" as strong indicators of their success. "

    With all due respect, every business model is different. Calling it unconventional; while not a bad term, but it implies there is something sinister about their metrics.

    You list Pandora as one of the possible competition, while true, but does Pandora not use the "average user online" metric as well as "user listening per hour"? Do you doubt that this information will not be key in analyzing their viability if/when they become public?

    Neilson television ratings value these important metrics as does websites who sell ads based on unique traffic? For you to suggest that Sirius should not construct their model and key performance metrics to suit Wall Street's expectations is unfair.

    Finaly, you say...

    "Sirius XM's small shareholders are 'mimicry' investors, showing extreme optimism or pessimism. It was this behavior that drove the prices to 9 cents in 2009, and raised it back to almost $2 in a remarkably short period. This herding instinct and noise trading forms the theoretical basis of technical analysis."

    This is one of the most offensive statements describing your readers as well as Sirius investors that I have ever read. I think your readership deserves a little more respect than that.

    With all due respect.
    Apr 26 06:44 AM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 2011 Holds for Sirius XM [View article]
    Relmor -

    I have to hand it to you, this is by far the most detailed analysis I have read regarding SiriusXM in quite some time. Well done!
    Jan 20 06:47 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Just for Sirius Investors: Goldman and Merrill Implicated in Manipulation Scam [View article]
    Mr. Matthews -

    While I appreciate the effort that you have exerted in obtaining this affidavit, I can't help but to acknowledge the attempt at deflecting blame where it rightfully belongs, which is on the management of each of these companies.

    Warren Buttett once said...

    "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."

    He also says...

    "If a business does well, the stock eventually follows."

    Sounds simple enough right?

    The question is, how is it that external forces can have such a profound impact on a companies stock price without having equal impact on the companies fundamentals?

    The two above quotes are as logical as they come; from arguably the most successful investor in the world. To continue to blame others for the demise of what the management at these companies are ultimately responsible for is a weak argument.

    Officers of these companies are paid millions of dollars every year to make decisions that serves the interests of the company and their shareholders. If I think for one moment that they are no longer in control of the company's success, then I shouldn't be an investor in that company.

    Also I feel wholeheartedly that anyone who's still crying over this spilled milk deserved to have been a "victim" of that spill.

    I also think you throw out the word "victim" too loosely. If you really want to uncover a conspiracy, try looking into the possibility of the companies themselves being complicit in the scheme. But that would be too scary wouldn't it?

    Isn't it also possible or even plausible that the only reason these lawsuits are being filed is so the companies themselves deflect the blame and protect themselves of lawsuits by individual investors....

    Investors need to accept responsibility for their own loses and learn the lesson of the risk involved. Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are not villains here; at least not in the eyes of their investors.

    If we owned their stocks we would applaud the value they returned to our shares. That's the truth...
    Dec 20 06:49 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius Investors Should Not Be Disappointed as Russell Index Inclusion Complete [View article]
    It seems everyone is still in a sour mood over what the Russell Reconstitution didn’t do. What we need to do is focus on what it did.

    As I’ve said before, this was an event only for the MMs and the funds and really not that significant for the average investor. The funds and the MMs are the ones who benefited from all of the transactions; a lot of which were pre-arranged. Now it’s back to business as usual; which is how it should be. Those who exited on Friday may have done well with a market on close order at $1.09. But it won’t be too long before we break that again.

    The reality is, the Russell was fundamentally un-related to SIRI. So, the idea that “this” was some type of a letdown only exists in the eyes of those who had unrealistic expectations. The 227M in short position that I posted Friday that showed a 6% rise from the previous report was an indicator for the increased pressure on any spike that may have resulted from the Russell. Until we start seeing a decline in Short positions, IMO it’s going to be a constant battle between the forces of “good and evil”. There are now 227M+ reasons that good news for SIRI seems to affect the price very little. But that soon may change.

    The good thing for all SIRI investors post the Russell Reconstitution is that due to the increased exposure to the various funds, each passing day from now on SIRI is moving further and further away from being a “penny stock”. (regardless of price)
    Jun 28 02:23 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Isn't Dead [View article]
    Ashraf -

    "Buybacks are a nice gimmick to split the pie among fewer players, but Wall Street prefers "growth" :-)"

    As an Intel investors, are you seriously saying this? Is that not what Intel has done the past three years, while producing little to no growth? Can you explain why, then, is Intel up 30% this year?

    Ashraf, I've always liked your articles. But I struggle at times to find any real consistency.
    Dec 26 09:46 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: The Real Reason for the Sudden Surge in Volume and Price [View article]
    SBG -

    Its just challenging for me to trade on the future as I can't predict Japan-like circumstances. That has been what has kept me safe in the market for a number of years. This SIRI incident, as painful a lesson in humility it has been, is not enough to sway me away for my philosophies. You win some and you lose some, but the game goes on.

    Congrats to all longs!
    May 11 10:06 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sirius XM: Distinguishing Between the Company and the Stock [View article]
    jimmor -

    "Shorting is way to risky. This stock can make an unexpected run that would defy all logic and "the odds."

    I think it just did from $1.91 to $2.23. The odds are now that it will not continue. Its a chance I'm willing to take.
    May 9 07:41 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sirius XM: Distinguishing Between the Company and the Stock [View article]
    Ron -

    "I see your point, but I have to say that I am a bit disappointed that you have turned to the dark side."

    I have not turned to the dark side. I don't believe such a thing exist. My approach to the market/trading is the same as when I take a weekend trip to Vegas, I play the odds. I gut tells me that right now, there will be a temporary pause or retrace in SIRI before it continues its upward move, that's all.

    As I'm typing this, I remain shamefully attached to my radio, but SIRI the stock, I will continue to trade accordingly. Presently, the spike in valuation seemed a bit artificial.

    "Are you now saying that it's not worth $2.23? Say it ain't so?"

    Ron, what was reported in SIRI's earnings that says it should be worth 1.2BB more in market cap in less than a week? That's essentially what happened. The report was decent, but the fundamental metrics came in flat.

    I'm not ruling out taking a long position at some point this year, for me, I think shorting the valuation is the best play at the moment.
    May 9 06:41 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Just for Sirius Investors: Goldman and Merrill Implicated in Manipulation Scam [View article]
    Isn't Google a threat to Microsoft? Wasn't Netflix a threat to Blockbuster? Isn't BluRay a threat to the DVD? Isn't Solar power a threat to other forms of energy? Wasn't FedEx and UPS a threat to the Postal Service (government owned). I'm sure FaceBook is a threat to something. Wasn't broadband a threat to dial-up? Wasn't Ebay a threat to the traditional auctions? Isn't Craig's List a threat to the classifieds? Isn't self check-out a threat to the cashier? Isn't ATMs a threat to the bank teller? Wasn't Amazon a threat to Wal-Mart?

    None of these companies mentioned are in any danger but somehow the four companies in your article were targeted because they posed as threats to existing "bellwethers". Isn't possible that the companies themselves were flawed fundamentally?

    "Excuses are the tools of the weak"
    Dec 20 07:47 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius: Implications of Russell Inclusion [View article]
    This article states...

    "Offering further strength is the likelihood that any current short sellers will be looking to exit their short position, as Sirius XM is likely to appreciate substantially through the month of June."

    I'm willing to bet that is exactly what will happen and not just a likelihood. Also $1.50 - $2.00 is very unlikely. My guess is that SIRI does not past $1.35 at any point before Q2 earnings.

    This article sounds like a response to the comments made to Mr. Costa's article yesterday where I wrote the following...

    ______________________...
    May 30 05:23 PM

    Mr. Costa, I want to commend you on an excellent piece of writing. In your article you said the following…

    “With this Russell rules milestone attained, investors can now take a breath, sit back in their seats, and digest what this will mean for the company’s stock in the coming days and weeks.”

    Thank you for not speculating on any price movement and sticking to facts and not conjecture. This is why I enjoy your insight.
    But allow me add a few tidbits and please feel free to comment if you feel inclined…

    As a result of the inclusion, I expect SIRI’s stock price will be swinging back and forth over the next four weeks as fund managers try to buy it but it will definitely have an upward bias. SIRI is about to enter an artificial environment of what the market terms “forced buying”. Then it will culminate by the big blow out on 6/25 where only the smart people will be able to sell. Then what can we expect?

    Anytime the stock goes up it is a great thing; it’s even better when it can be timed. It’s a trader’s dream. It’s not often one can anticipate such price movements (in any direction). But we have to understand that this is forced buying and is NOT based on any fundamentals in the market. The professional traders understand this and know exactly when it will end. They know the buying will dry up on 6/28. They will likely be shorting the stock in the last two weeks leading up to 6/25. Why? Because once the artificial buying has ended SIRI will correct down to a slightly higher trading range than where it sits now.

    I’m only saying this after the research I’ve done since the close of the market on Friday when SIRI officially qualified. It comes directly from Russell’s website at russell.com. If you scroll down you will arrive at an article written by David Carino called Russell Research: Price Pressure at Russell Index Reconstitution. The document is 19 pages but the relevant quotes and what I find interesting are as follows…

    Page 4 states...

    "Previous studies of price movements surrounding index changes have documented abnormal returns to the stocks affected after the announcement date." The announcement date is 6/11.
    "In general it has been found that stocks added to an index have positive abnormal gains over a period of time leading up to the effective date and tend to experience a reversal over a period of time thereafter. For stocks deleted from the index the picture is inverted."

    Page 10 states…

    " On average a substantial amount of the effect occurs in the first five days after the reconstitution"

    So, the Russell researchers are suggesting that most of the gains will disappear in the first five days after the rebalancing takes place.

    There are a lot of good people on this board. Not everyone is a professional. So understand what this is. The Russell inclusion is great. But keep it in perspective and understand that those that are professionals WILL be ready for this advanced information. You should be ready as well and keep your expectations leveled.

    Now back to my Angus burger and Heineken.
    May 31 08:27 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM Will Be Added to the Russell [View article]
    Ron the Rocket, you are all over it! My sentiments exactly. But to his credit, he accomplished a few things...

    He was able to "raise guidance" again without doing so. He offered that they underestimated the bouyancy of the auto industry.

    He shed insight into the used/pre-owned auto segment and it's viability towards the increasing of subs on a 3-5 year outlook. This should bode well.

    I was disappointed in his response regarding the Stern's contract but I still expect something to be disclosed before June 30th. (don't ask me why)

    Overall, I would question the merits of this appearance, but if nothing else, his confidence in the business model and his lack of concern (strategically) for competition (via terrestrial or Internet) was designed to instill confidence in investors. Whether this wa accomplished or not depends on various points of view.

    For now, I'm just gonna say, his appearance did not hurt the stock.
    Jun 10 01:50 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Elimination of XM Holdings May Pave the Way for Sirius Deals Renegotiation [View article]
    Philippe, I'm with you. At the same time I canceled my Serius subscription, I also canceled my high speed Internet and went back to dial-up. That broadband thing is overrated and it will never last...
    Let's go call a terrestrial radio station and wait on hold through the commercials so we can blast Sirius. After that we can log on to a Sirius blog to blast the product. After that we can sit in our cars and look at ourselves in the review mirror and wonder what pathetic losers we are.
    Apr 19 04:43 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: The Real Reason for the Sudden Surge in Volume and Price [View article]
    SO -

    "the market takes no hostages!"

    I love that quote and it is a painful lesson. Right now if I was a hostage I don't know what my ransom would be worth; not even enough to cover my short.

    For my sake, I hope you are right in the 15% retrace. I don't know how much more of this I can take. But if it goes to $2.50 then its a wrap and I'll eat more humble pie; except this one will have more expensive toppings.
    May 11 10:15 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM and the Statutes of Liberty [View article]
    Thanks. $2 was a pretty big milestone. I wasn't expecting it until this Friday. Even if it doesn't hold, from a psychological perspective it is very significant as we are approaching the 2nd month in Q2. Long term (next 7 months) it raises the ceiling for the stock performance.
    Apr 26 11:39 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius Investors Should Not Focus on Wunderlich Securities' Downgrade [View article]
    Rocco -

    I think they overdid it as well. As you pointed out, many expected the stock to decline drastically. But it has shown the same resiliency it has relative to the type of declines in broader market. Its improving fundamentals is backing up its current points of support.

    Also consider the meaning of their lowered price target from $2.00 to $1.65. That is a significant $.35 cents. If you multiply 35cents by SIRI's float it amounts to over 1 billion dollars in SIRI's value.

    He's suggesting that the law suit can potentially impact SIRI by almost 1.5BB dollars. I can only say I disagree.
    Mar 25 11:13 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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