Seeking Alpha

Richard Shaw

 
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  • Seeking High-Quality Companies With Sales And Dividend Growth, And A Reasonable Price
    Wed, Sep. 17 BAX, CAE, TROW 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Tupperware, CAE, T. Rowe Price and Baxter International are the only 4 survivors of a rigorous quality, yield, growth, and reasonable pricing filter.
    • Recent market under-performance is a contributor to their undervaluation -- value opportunities often exist in the out of favor.
    • Only 213 stocks out of thousands pass a basic dividend consistency and growth filter combined with overall investment quality ratings -- our additional criteria reduced the list to 4.
  • Which REIT Sectors Did Best / Worst Last Week & Which Look Best Going Forward?
    Mon, Sep. 15 ESS, FRT, HCN 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The MSCI REIT index has an estimated 12-month forward total return expectation of 9.09%.
    • Health Care REITs were the worst of 8 sectors last week, and Hotel & Resort REITS were best.
    • Diversified REITs have the best 12-month forward total return estimates, followed by Retail, Residential and Hotel & Resort REITs.
  • War Risk Considerations For U.S. Stock Market
    Tue, Sep. 2 ITOT, IVV, IWB 2 Comments

    Summary

    • War risk is one of three key fear areas today: war, bubbles or overvaluation, and economic slowdown or deflation.
    • Historical evidence from 1898 shows that US wars have not had an adverse impact on US stocks overall - avoiding stocks due to war has not been a successful approach.
    • This article is relevant to diversified US large-cap stock indexes only, not to foreign stocks or individual stocks.
  • 7 Stocks For Quality, Growth, Dividend Consistency & Reasonable Prospect Of Gain
    Thu, Aug. 14 BAX, DE, EV 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Location, location, location for real estate -- growth, growth growth for stocks.
    • Earnings and dividend growth is only sustainable with long-term revenue growth.
    • Reasonable pricing of growth is critical for risk moderation, and helpful in positioning for gain.
  • 12 Top Consensus Stock Holdings From Best 3 Health Care Active Mutual Funds
    Sun, Aug. 10 ABBV, ACT, ALXN 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Healthcare mutual funds dominated outperformance over past short and long periods, and 2008.
    • 3 mutual funds stood out as top performers.
    • 12 top individual stock are held in common between the 3 top mutual funds.
  • 5-Year Projection: S&P 500 Price, Earnings And Dividends Using Mean Reversion Growth
    Wed, Jul. 30 SPY 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Long-term growth rates from 1957: Price 6.88% (to ~ 2700); GAAP earnings 5.90% (to ~ $115); dividends 5.37% (to ~ $45).
    • Starting in internet era (1995) trend growth for price and earnings projects declines.
    • Starting in internet era (1995) trend growth for dividends projects increases.
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks)
    Thu, Jul. 24 ADP, BAX, BEN 38 Comments

    Summary

    • High quality stocks are a prudent choice for a late stage, fully valued market.
    • Strictly selected high quality stocks outperform the S&P 500.
    • Revenue and dividend growth criteria substantially reduce the high quality universe.
  • 10 Best And 10 Worst Net Capture Ratio ETFs Over Trailing 3 Years
    Thu, Jul. 10 ADRE, EEM, EWI Comment!

    Summary

    • Capture ratios are a complement to other risk/reward measures.
    • Best 3-yr net capture ratios found among healthcare, utilities and consumer cyclicals.
    • Worst 3-yr capture ratios found among bond funds and emerging markets.
  • 9 Filtered Dividend Stocks From Dividend Champions, Contenders And Challengers
    Wed, Jul. 9 BAX, CMS, DTE 11 Comments

    Summary

    • David Fish's Dividend Champions, Contenders and Challengers are a good universe to consider.
    • Mine that universe using filter criteria that identify strengths that are important to you.
    • Add balance sheet strength and credit worthiness to your review.
    • Consider short-term technical factors deciding when to buy each stock.
    • Go beyond quantitative review to understand each company qualitatively before you buy.
  • Best MLP Funds For Risk Adjusted Return Vs. S&P 500
    Thu, May. 8 AMJ, AMLP, CEM 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Actively managed mutual funds generally outperformed ETFs, CEFs and ETNs on a risk adjusted basis versus the S&P 500 on a 3-year basis.
    • Close-end KED outperformed the S&P 500 on a risk adjusted basis for 3 and 5 years, and is way out front year-to-date.
    • Popular ETFs and ETNs underperformed KED over the last 3 years.
  • MLPs With Better Risk Adjusted Return Than The S&P 500
    Wed, May. 7 ACMP, BIP, ENLC 15 Comments

    Summary

    • If you want to own MLPs and have the yield and tax advantages that many provide, you might also want to add relative risk adjusted return to your criteria.
    • Identified 112 MLPs, 69 of which have at least 3 years of trading history.
    • 13 have better 3-year risk adjusted return than S&P 500.
    • 10 have better 5-year risk adjusted return than S&P 500.
    • 5 have better 10-year risk adjusted return than S&P 500.
  • 12 Stocks Held In Common By S&P 500 Low Volatility, High Quality And High Yield Indexes
    Sun, Apr. 13 BAX, CVX, JNJ 14 Comments

    Summary

    • 12 stocks common to S&P 500 low volatility, high quality and high dividends outperformed S&P 500 over the long-term with less risk and more yield.
    • As recent markets turned nervous, they are outperforming again.
    • Baxter International, Chevron and Lockheed Martin stand out as most attractive of the 12.
  • Exchange Some Potential Return For Some Risk Reduction Within Your Equity Allocation
    Sat, Apr. 12 RSP, SPHB, SPHD 1 Comment

    Summary

    • US stock profit margins and market valuation are at high levels with more near-term downside potential than upside.
    • Investors in late stages of accumulation, or currently relying on their portfolios to live, and who are aggressively positioned, should consider exchanging some return potential for a less risk.
    • Reduce small-cap exposure, increase average market-cap, lower Beta/volatility, increase quality, and increase dividend yield (without reaching too far).
  • Year Ahead Price Targets For S&P 500, Its Sectors And Individual Constituents
    Thu, Apr. 10 SPY, XLB, XLE 1 Comment

    Summary

    • "Street" 12-mo nominal price return target for S&P 500 = 7.73% (index price ~ 1995).
    • 3 most favored sectors are Consumer Discretionary (11.07%) Health Care (9.69%), and Energy (9.31%).
    • Least favored sector is Utilities (0.35%).
    • Demonstrate "Street", Thomson/Reuters StarMine, S&P Capital IQ and Value Line have major differences of opinion on attractive and unattractive S&P 500 holdings.
    • Download file for Street 12-mo target price gains available for all S&P 500 holdings.
  • Risk Aware Investing, Part 1: Dividend ETFs
    Mon, Mar. 17 DES, DLN, DON 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Risk review of possible downside returns and extreme scenario stress tests for top 10 dividend ETFs.
    • Comparative dividend payment patterns and upside/downside capture ratios and risk/return ratios.
    • Comparative yield, valuation multiples and portfolio composition.
  • Multi-Factor Selection Of Top Sectors For 2014
    Thu, Jan. 16 AMLP, VGT, VNQ 2 Comments
  • 12 Northwest Quadrant ETFs Beat S&P 500
    Wed, Jan. 15 EPS, IHE, IVV 4 Comments
  • Best Top Dividend Vs. Top Non-Dividend Stocks For Risk Adjusted Total Return
    Mon, Jan. 13 CMS, D, EPD 18 Comments
  • Best Risk Adjusted Total Return Dividend Stocks
    Wed, Jan. 8 AMNF, CMS, D 15 Comments
  • A Double Whammy For REITs And MLPs In 2013 - More In 2014?
    Wed, Jan. 8 AMLP, VNQ 12 Comments
  • Sector Allocation Comparison Of 7 Popular Dividend ETFs -- Why We Like 3 The Best
    Wed, Jan. 8 DVY, FDL, FVD 19 Comments
  • What's Working And What's Not - December 2013
    Dec. 29, 2013 IVE, IVV, IVW 6 Comments
  • Stocks Thrice Blessed For Technical Strength
    Dec. 9, 2013 AAPL, ATRO, CELG 2 Comments
  • Dividend Stocks With Better Revenue Growth, Lower Beta And At Least 10% Price Gain Targets
    Dec. 6, 2013 ACU, AHGP, ARLP 8 Comments
  • 16 Stocks That Outperform Market Fundamentally With Lower Beta
    Nov. 20, 2013 AZO, COO, CVS 3 Comments
  • Slim Pickin's Screening For Growth And Value Among Dividend Growth Stocks
    Nov. 19, 2013 ARLP, BLK, CHRW 16 Comments
  • Selecting Sectors To Tilt Your Portfolio Exposure
    Sep. 13, 2013 VGT, VOX, XLB 14 Comments
  • 12 Investable Banks Among The Worlds 50 Safest Banks
    Sep. 3, 2013 BNS, TD, USB 12 Comments
  • Dividend Stocks Not Handling Interest Rates As Well As Low/No Dividend Stocks
    Sep. 3, 2013 SPY, VGT, VNQ 15 Comments
  • 28 Stock Selections From Reverse Engineered Stock Analyst Ratings
    Aug. 14, 2013 AFL, CVS, QCOM 19 Comments
  • 9 Dividend Stocks Growing Revenue, Profits And Dividends Above Market Rates
    Aug. 5, 2013 BLK, TUP, QCOM 15 Comments
  • Historical Returns For U.S. Stock/Bond Allocations, And Choosing Your Allocation
    Jul. 30, 2013 AOA, AOK, AOM 10 Comments