Seeking Alpha

Richard Shaw

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Richard Shaw's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 5-Year Projection: S&P 500 Price, Earnings And Dividends Using Mean Reversion Growth [View article]
    Brendan,

    I did not say that 5.7% growth is "little if any". I obviously was not clear in my statement. Please forgive me.

    The dotted black line for the S&P 500 price is the long-term average growth from 1957 which is shown in both the full history and the internet history chart. That dotted black line begins in 1957 for both charts, and is not encouraging. The solid red line for the S&P 500 in the internet era begins in 1995 at the long-term growth rate from 1957 and projects gains which are encouraging.

    The article says, however, that if the staring point in 1995 is already expensive (and it is up to you to decide that based on the valuation data provided), then the growth suggested by that line may be unavailable. However, if the 1995 staring point was reasonably valued then 31 to 32% growth is suggested.
    Jul 30 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5-Year Projection: S&P 500 Price, Earnings And Dividends Using Mean Reversion Growth [View article]
    Thanks Garry:

    I understand the two approaches, and built both models in my spreadsheet; and decided that in this instance my purpose was better served the way it is, because with the 10x markers on the Y-scale could not be visually interpreted by the reader (e.g. 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000). Since my purpose was to derive plausible future values, I wanted the Y-scale markers to be readable, which they are not on a log scale for the y-axis.

    Richard
    Jul 30 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    thanks for the first hand observation
    Jul 27 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    (1) yes, I turned off all four Balance Sheet criteria, and probably some or most of those 18 satisfied one or more of the 4 criteria

    (2) from what this article offers, you need to read up on the 18 and decide on how much Balance Sheet quality you need. Don't know what your mix would be and therefore no view of the selections you would make
    Jul 27 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    I see your point, and argument could be made that any business that must file an application with a government agency to change its rates, and which rates by statute are supposed to be a cost plus with inflationary increases, have key attributes of utilities. I am personally comfortable calling them Energy, or Transportation, or Utilities. Railroads move oil and gasoline and coal and other energy products, but they are Transportation. To me the industry classification (more specific than sector) is a more interesting designation, which perhaps I should have used instead of sector.
    Jul 27 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Reasonable comment. Database classifications are often debatable. We used the categories from the database. Thanks
    Jul 27 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    In the broadest categorization pipelines are utilities, which are more than gas and electricity providers -- (for the most part they deliver energy in semi-monopolistic pipes, and have regulated prices for which they must make application to authorities)
    Jul 25 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    As you say in your bio -- numbers can and sometimes do lie (all numbers used here from databases, which by their nature contain some element of data error within 10's of thousands od data points -- possibly some stocks should not be in the list and possibly some should have been in the list if data errors were in the databases for specific stocks for the specific datapoints selected) -- so to all the readers, dig in past the data for this list to make sure you understand and want the exposures each company provides
    Jul 25 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Interesting point. I personally on both UNP and NSC, so will only feel half the pinch.
    Jul 25 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Much appreciated
    Jul 24 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Yes there were a number of big name stocks with high quality ratings from S&P, ValueLine or Wrights that are missing, but the CCC requirement and the growth and Balance Sheet criteria are very strict
    Jul 24 08:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Yes the genetic modification issue is big with some. I am not personally afraid to eat genetically modified foods. Whether there are other issues relating to upsetting biologic balances and such is outside of my level of understanding. There are also issues of increasing crop yield, desired grain attributes, pest resistance and things like that which may be important to the ability of the earth to sustain its ever increasing population. Fresh water supply is expected to be come a brick wall to limit population as some point. I am looking more and more into stocks that will benefit from or help solve the water shortage issues.
    Jul 24 06:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Personally, I don't favor business development companies or mortgage REITS, but that personal preference aside, I think remaining substantially fully invested still makes sense, just with a less aggressive security selection -- and do note that my perspective is based on the character of my client base -- they are past or near the end of the accumulation stage of life and are near to or currently living on portfolio income -- they cannot replace those assets if lost but they typically must continue to develop income -- so my comments here and in this article are not necessarily appropriate for any other type of investor (I should probably make that caveat in the body of my articles)
    Jul 24 05:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Bob, yes quality and moats -- also thanks to David Fish for maintaining the CCC list. ValueLine has a rating for Price Stability, Earnings Predictability, and Growth Persistence which is a nice set of companion data, as well as 15 years of financial data -- most libraries maintain a subscription -- if you live is a small town, getting to that publication is minimally inconvenient, if you don't choose to subscribe
    Jul 24 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    As a microbiologist, are you negative about the business they are in (you may have some special insights on genetic modification), or are you negative about them as a security independent of their specific business pursuits?
    Jul 24 03:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,012 Comments
1,417 Likes