Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Richard Shaw  

View Richard Shaw's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 12 Top Consensus Stock Holdings From Best 3 Health Care Active Mutual Funds [View article]
    Tabber
    glad to be of help -- that's my goal -- thank you for the kind words
    Richard
    Aug 10, 2014. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Vince, I understand what you say, however, I think of "shortage" in these ways:

    1. The rate of water extraction exceeds the rate of rainfall (geologic water reserves are being tapped, and once used or unaccessible) a supply/demand wall exists

    2. The world population keeps growing but the supply of total water does not (except for desalination, which may not be able to grow fast enough for global demand)

    3. The contamination of surface and underground fresh water is possibly increasing (e.g. in China and other developing countries, and possibly by industrial and mineral extraction processes in developed and developing countries)

    So with those kinds of issues in mind, there is a supply/demand imbalance that I think of as shortage.

    Distribution is one problem, but so too is efficient use (e.g drip irrigation versus spray irrigation), and better stewardship to protect from contamination.
    Aug 5, 2014. 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5-Year Projection: S&P 500 Price, Earnings And Dividends Using Mean Reversion Growth [View article]
    There is no suggestion in this this article of "buy or sell today" and I don't expect this to be remembered "far in the future".

    My purpose which you miss is to help people set long-term expectations based on mean reversion data. There is nothing about this article that related to trading and none was intended.

    Yes it was a "cerebral exercise". Setting long-term expectation is a cerebral matter.

    No offense taken. Sorry you we were disappointed.
    Jul 31, 2014. 01:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5-Year Projection: S&P 500 Price, Earnings And Dividends Using Mean Reversion Growth [View article]
    Ralph111,

    I would expect increased borrowing costs to have a more immediate adverse impact on profits than any demographic shift in the workforce, which by its nature is more gradual.

    There may also be a reaction by corporations to retain or recruit older workers if they find that the new crop of employees have less dedication to task (as some studies suggest may be the case); and if enough prospective retirees determine on their own or with the help of advisors that they cannot afford to retire at a level of expenditure that they had expected.

    Interest rate impacts can be realized in months or a few years, whereas demographic impacts will be noticed over years and perhaps a decade or more.
    Jul 30, 2014. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5-Year Projection: S&P 500 Price, Earnings And Dividends Using Mean Reversion Growth [View article]
    Brendan,

    I did not say that 5.7% growth is "little if any". I obviously was not clear in my statement. Please forgive me.

    The dotted black line for the S&P 500 price is the long-term average growth from 1957 which is shown in both the full history and the internet history chart. That dotted black line begins in 1957 for both charts, and is not encouraging. The solid red line for the S&P 500 in the internet era begins in 1995 at the long-term growth rate from 1957 and projects gains which are encouraging.

    The article says, however, that if the staring point in 1995 is already expensive (and it is up to you to decide that based on the valuation data provided), then the growth suggested by that line may be unavailable. However, if the 1995 staring point was reasonably valued then 31 to 32% growth is suggested.
    Jul 30, 2014. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5-Year Projection: S&P 500 Price, Earnings And Dividends Using Mean Reversion Growth [View article]
    Thanks Garry:

    I understand the two approaches, and built both models in my spreadsheet; and decided that in this instance my purpose was better served the way it is, because with the 10x markers on the Y-scale could not be visually interpreted by the reader (e.g. 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000). Since my purpose was to derive plausible future values, I wanted the Y-scale markers to be readable, which they are not on a log scale for the y-axis.

    Richard
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    thanks for the first hand observation
    Jul 27, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    (1) yes, I turned off all four Balance Sheet criteria, and probably some or most of those 18 satisfied one or more of the 4 criteria

    (2) from what this article offers, you need to read up on the 18 and decide on how much Balance Sheet quality you need. Don't know what your mix would be and therefore no view of the selections you would make
    Jul 27, 2014. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    I see your point, and argument could be made that any business that must file an application with a government agency to change its rates, and which rates by statute are supposed to be a cost plus with inflationary increases, have key attributes of utilities. I am personally comfortable calling them Energy, or Transportation, or Utilities. Railroads move oil and gasoline and coal and other energy products, but they are Transportation. To me the industry classification (more specific than sector) is a more interesting designation, which perhaps I should have used instead of sector.
    Jul 27, 2014. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Reasonable comment. Database classifications are often debatable. We used the categories from the database. Thanks
    Jul 27, 2014. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    In the broadest categorization pipelines are utilities, which are more than gas and electricity providers -- (for the most part they deliver energy in semi-monopolistic pipes, and have regulated prices for which they must make application to authorities)
    Jul 25, 2014. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    As you say in your bio -- numbers can and sometimes do lie (all numbers used here from databases, which by their nature contain some element of data error within 10's of thousands od data points -- possibly some stocks should not be in the list and possibly some should have been in the list if data errors were in the databases for specific stocks for the specific datapoints selected) -- so to all the readers, dig in past the data for this list to make sure you understand and want the exposures each company provides
    Jul 25, 2014. 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Interesting point. I personally on both UNP and NSC, so will only feel half the pinch.
    Jul 25, 2014. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Much appreciated
    Jul 24, 2014. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Yes there were a number of big name stocks with high quality ratings from S&P, ValueLine or Wrights that are missing, but the CCC requirement and the growth and Balance Sheet criteria are very strict
    Jul 24, 2014. 08:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,031 Comments
1,424 Likes