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Richard Shaw  

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  • Seeking High-Quality Companies With Sales And Dividend Growth, And A Reasonable Price [View article]
    I don't know. Will look into it. Maybe this press release is related:

    Baxter Initiates U.S. Voluntary Recall of One Lot of Potassium Chloride Injection Due to Shipping Carton Mislabeling
    Sep 17, 2014. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which REIT Sectors Did Best / Worst Last Week & Which Look Best Going Forward? [View article]
    Good comment
    Sep 15, 2014. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Top Consensus Stock Holdings From Best 3 Health Care Active Mutual Funds [View article]
    Sorry about that -- obviously missed that one in drafting

    CELG ABA19
    Aug 12, 2014. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Top Consensus Stock Holdings From Best 3 Health Care Active Mutual Funds [View article]
    Good question.

    Not disclosed so SA will not decide that I made a BUY recommendation and begin tracking that from publication date. They have a new performance tracking system which currently involves editors interpreting the intent of authors, deciding for the author without between a description, a disclosure and a recommendation.

    Until and unless they make it so an author must specifically say Buy, Sell or Hold for a security to be tracked as a recommendation, I intend to minimize the disclosure info they can use to decide for me what I mean.

    If I had disclosed the 3 stocks I own, however, they specifically would not be BUY recommendations. I don't do that. I provide hopefully useful information to do-it-yourself investors which may turn on a light bulb here and there for them, but I do not make public recommendations (I only make recommendations to my clients).

    As a practical matter, as an advisor, it is not possible for me to know who you are, what your needs, goals, resources, limits, and existing holdings are -- and as a result it would be inappropriate to think that I can say what is suitable for you to buy or sell.

    The buy and sell recommendations from the Street are to an undefined, undifferentiated conceptual investor without any distinction. That investor is not me, and it's not you. All they are really doing in many cases is trend following with some fundamentals tossed in to make a 12-month price change prediction (which they often modify as soon as the trend changes or one quarter isn't equal to their expectations -- note they always say the company missed, when in many cases it was the analyst who missed).

    That's what they do. It is not what I do

    They are not making long-term recommendations, nor making suitability assessments. They are closer to traders than investors. I am an investor with a longer time horizon than the next quarterly report or the next correction, and I am focused on the context of each security within a portfolio and suitability for the specific client for a particular purpose.

    That's the long answer. The short answer is that I am waiting for SA to stop deciding for authors what is a recommendation and what is not.

    Related to all that, note this statement in my article near the top:

    [Important Note: This article is provided as an information aid to do-it-yourself investors. This IS NOT a specific recommendation to buy or sell any security, nor a statement of suitability for any particular investor.]
    Aug 11, 2014. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Top Consensus Stock Holdings From Best 3 Health Care Active Mutual Funds [View article]
    Thanks I'll get that fixed
    Aug 11, 2014. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Top Consensus Stock Holdings From Best 3 Health Care Active Mutual Funds [View article]
    The funds were chosen for outperforming the S&P over a series of periods, having at least 10 years of history and having Sharpe ratios over multiple periods at least at 0.8
    Aug 11, 2014. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Top Consensus Stock Holdings From Best 3 Health Care Active Mutual Funds [View article]
    Tabber,

    Also important about the links to external resources: These article don't go away, and the data in them gets old and stale after a while.

    So, by providing links to daily updated services, readers can get the current story on securities mentioned to stay current even when the article is fading in data relevancy.
    Aug 10, 2014. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Top Consensus Stock Holdings From Best 3 Health Care Active Mutual Funds [View article]
    SA did not post my disclosure, and instead posted a stock disclosure which is not correct. I have requested a correction. Pending that here is the disclosure submitted with the article:

    Disclosure: QVM has positions in one of the mutual funds and some of the individual stocks as of the creation date of this article (August 9,2014). We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article, and are not compensated by Seeking Alpha in any way relating to this article.
    Aug 10, 2014. 01:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Top Consensus Stock Holdings From Best 3 Health Care Active Mutual Funds [View article]
    Tabber
    glad to be of help -- that's my goal -- thank you for the kind words
    Richard
    Aug 10, 2014. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    Vince, I understand what you say, however, I think of "shortage" in these ways:

    1. The rate of water extraction exceeds the rate of rainfall (geologic water reserves are being tapped, and once used or unaccessible) a supply/demand wall exists

    2. The world population keeps growing but the supply of total water does not (except for desalination, which may not be able to grow fast enough for global demand)

    3. The contamination of surface and underground fresh water is possibly increasing (e.g. in China and other developing countries, and possibly by industrial and mineral extraction processes in developed and developing countries)

    So with those kinds of issues in mind, there is a supply/demand imbalance that I think of as shortage.

    Distribution is one problem, but so too is efficient use (e.g drip irrigation versus spray irrigation), and better stewardship to protect from contamination.
    Aug 5, 2014. 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5-Year Projection: S&P 500 Price, Earnings And Dividends Using Mean Reversion Growth [View article]
    There is no suggestion in this this article of "buy or sell today" and I don't expect this to be remembered "far in the future".

    My purpose which you miss is to help people set long-term expectations based on mean reversion data. There is nothing about this article that related to trading and none was intended.

    Yes it was a "cerebral exercise". Setting long-term expectation is a cerebral matter.

    No offense taken. Sorry you we were disappointed.
    Jul 31, 2014. 01:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5-Year Projection: S&P 500 Price, Earnings And Dividends Using Mean Reversion Growth [View article]
    Ralph111,

    I would expect increased borrowing costs to have a more immediate adverse impact on profits than any demographic shift in the workforce, which by its nature is more gradual.

    There may also be a reaction by corporations to retain or recruit older workers if they find that the new crop of employees have less dedication to task (as some studies suggest may be the case); and if enough prospective retirees determine on their own or with the help of advisors that they cannot afford to retire at a level of expenditure that they had expected.

    Interest rate impacts can be realized in months or a few years, whereas demographic impacts will be noticed over years and perhaps a decade or more.
    Jul 30, 2014. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5-Year Projection: S&P 500 Price, Earnings And Dividends Using Mean Reversion Growth [View article]
    Brendan,

    I did not say that 5.7% growth is "little if any". I obviously was not clear in my statement. Please forgive me.

    The dotted black line for the S&P 500 price is the long-term average growth from 1957 which is shown in both the full history and the internet history chart. That dotted black line begins in 1957 for both charts, and is not encouraging. The solid red line for the S&P 500 in the internet era begins in 1995 at the long-term growth rate from 1957 and projects gains which are encouraging.

    The article says, however, that if the staring point in 1995 is already expensive (and it is up to you to decide that based on the valuation data provided), then the growth suggested by that line may be unavailable. However, if the 1995 staring point was reasonably valued then 31 to 32% growth is suggested.
    Jul 30, 2014. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5-Year Projection: S&P 500 Price, Earnings And Dividends Using Mean Reversion Growth [View article]
    Thanks Garry:

    I understand the two approaches, and built both models in my spreadsheet; and decided that in this instance my purpose was better served the way it is, because with the 10x markers on the Y-scale could not be visually interpreted by the reader (e.g. 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000). Since my purpose was to derive plausible future values, I wanted the Y-scale markers to be readable, which they are not on a log scale for the y-axis.

    Richard
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Quality Stocks For Late Stage Bull Market (27 Stocks) [View article]
    thanks for the first hand observation
    Jul 27, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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