This S&P 500 Rally Does Not Have Good Legs [View article]
Someone posted a comment that said why not focus on why it is happening, not why is does not conform to history -- while I was responding it disappeared -- he must have deleted it, but I will respond anyway:
You have am important point about investing seeking income and trying to avoid risk, and bonds offering no real opportunity - to which I would add the possibility of European money seeking a home, if not some emerging market money too
This S&P 500 Rally Does Not Have Good Legs [View article]
No Free Cake -- I was actually going on rules of thumb that are generally out there, but I want think last night along the same lines as you, and when I can find the time, I hope to research that question in depth the way I did the frequency of 10% and 20% declines in a prior article
This S&P 500 Rally Does Not Have Good Legs [View article]
Do you mean opinions like this or people like me -- the later being a personal attack, the former being about the idea argument.
And for the record, this article has nothing to do with the "sooner or later" comment you made. It simply says that the relationship between movement of categories is not normally characteristic of a rally, and that there are evident contradictions in the rise.
No recommendation to buy or sell. FYI, We are fully invested at time.
May I presume from your comment that you would prefer to be unaware of what is going on, and to make your investment decisions in the dark?
Actually, looking at your last comment in your history before this one, I notice that you made your own negative call on March 18 as follows:
"Time To Lighten Up On The Refiners [View article] looking at futures this morning,might be time to lighten up on whole market."
I wonder if you feel so badly about "people like you" who made "sooner or later" calls to sell this rally. Surely you will eventually be right, but since you were totally wrong, you may need to make yourself feel better about your error by striking out at other who provide cautionary information, including ones to provide substantive information to support their idea, not just unsupported statements of opinion like the one you made then, and like the empty one you made here.
Dividend Stocks With Prices Way Too Far Ahead Of Themselves [View article]
Illuminati
If you believe that a stock can maintain an high Zscore for a long period of time, then for that stock you are right. If you believe that stock prices fluctuate and often return to or approach their mean, then patience could find better entry points. You need to go past the Zscore in the evaluation -- that is why I called it an "alerting" mechanism, not a final evaluation
Dividend Stocks With Prices Way Too Far Ahead Of Themselves [View article]
Keep in mind that the Z-score has nothing whatsoever to to with valuation or long-term prospects. I has only to do with short-term price behavior. We are not suggesting a buy or sell in any case, but are stating that the higher the Z the higher the probability of a pullback to the mean. That may have some utility to those seeking a good entry point for a stock, or in choosing between otherwise approximately equal new position alternatives.
Dividend Stocks With Prices Way Too Far Ahead Of Themselves [View article]
PendragonY -- I refer you to this paragraph in the article:
"We note that probability is ignorant of specific special drivers that could justify the price movement, but most of the time most stocks are not subject to unusual forces to drive them unusually far from their moving averages -- so most of the time the probabilistic approach is a good alerting mechanism. You have to look beyond that alert to make an investment decision."
Dividend Stocks With Prices Way Too Far Ahead Of Themselves [View article]
Bluesmoke -- the point of the article is that the higher the Z-number the higher probability of a pull back -- there was no reference to long-term opportunity or risk, and no discussion of P/E ratios
Can Your Gold ETF Holdings Be 'Cyprused?' Yes [View article]
Yeah -- so which country? Switzerland that is turning over names of US account holders? Cayman Island or other island countries, which is reported to be considering same? Cyprus where the Russians kept their offshore money? You don't know where is safe except out of a rear view mirror.
Can Your Gold ETF Holdings Be 'Cyprused?' Yes [View article]
My understanding is that is was not voluntary. Whether compliance was effectively enforced is one thing, but my understanding was that it was mandatory.
How Often Does S&P 500 Have 10% And 20% Negative Price Moves? [View article]
It measures the lowest price at any time in a quarter versus the highest price at any time in the trailing year ( 4 quarters). The days are captured in the quarters
It is not this quarter versus the four before that. It looks at the rolling four quarters including the just completed quarter.
If you would like to hand count the same data over 10,000+ days please do and let us know
For investors quarters are ok Months are better for some For traders days may be too long Each person should pick there most appropriate interval We like quarters
This S&P 500 Rally Does Not Have Good Legs [View article]
You have am important point about investing seeking income and trying to avoid risk, and bonds offering no real opportunity - to which I would add the possibility of European money seeking a home, if not some emerging market money too
This S&P 500 Rally Does Not Have Good Legs [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
thanks for that good question
This S&P 500 Rally Does Not Have Good Legs [View article]
This S&P 500 Rally Does Not Have Good Legs [View article]
And for the record, this article has nothing to do with the "sooner or later" comment you made. It simply says that the relationship between movement of categories is not normally characteristic of a rally, and that there are evident contradictions in the rise.
No recommendation to buy or sell. FYI, We are fully invested at time.
May I presume from your comment that you would prefer to be unaware of what is going on, and to make your investment decisions in the dark?
Actually, looking at your last comment in your history before this one, I notice that you made your own negative call on March 18 as follows:
"Time To Lighten Up On The Refiners [View article]
looking at futures this morning,might be time to lighten up on whole market."
I wonder if you feel so badly about "people like you" who made "sooner or later" calls to sell this rally. Surely you will eventually be right, but since you were totally wrong, you may need to make yourself feel better about your error by striking out at other who provide cautionary information, including ones to provide substantive information to support their idea, not just unsupported statements of opinion like the one you made then, and like the empty one you made here.
Dividend Stocks With Prices Way Too Far Ahead Of Themselves [View article]
If you believe that a stock can maintain an high Zscore for a long period of time, then for that stock you are right. If you believe that stock prices fluctuate and often return to or approach their mean, then patience could find better entry points. You need to go past the Zscore in the evaluation -- that is why I called it an "alerting" mechanism, not a final evaluation
Dividend Stocks With Prices Way Too Far Ahead Of Themselves [View article]
"Among the many daily screens we do, our screen of the 446 Dividend Champions, Contenders and Challengers list maintained by David Fish"
Dividend Stocks With Prices Way Too Far Ahead Of Themselves [View article]
Dividend Stocks With Prices Way Too Far Ahead Of Themselves [View article]
Dividend Stocks With Prices Way Too Far Ahead Of Themselves [View article]
"We note that probability is ignorant of specific special drivers that could justify the price movement, but most of the time most stocks are not subject to unusual forces to drive them unusually far from their moving averages -- so most of the time the probabilistic approach is a good alerting mechanism. You have to look beyond that alert to make an investment decision."
Dividend Stocks With Prices Way Too Far Ahead Of Themselves [View article]
Dividend Stocks With Prices Way Too Far Ahead Of Themselves [View article]
Can Your Gold ETF Holdings Be 'Cyprused?' Yes [View article]
Can Your Gold ETF Holdings Be 'Cyprused?' Yes [View article]
How Often Does S&P 500 Have 10% And 20% Negative Price Moves? [View article]
How Often Does S&P 500 Have 10% And 20% Negative Price Moves? [View article]
It is not this quarter versus the four before that. It looks at the rolling four quarters including the just completed quarter.
If you would like to hand count the same data over 10,000+ days please do and let us know
For investors quarters are ok
Months are better for some
For traders days may be too long
Each person should pick there most appropriate interval
We like quarters