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Richard Shaw

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  • Some of the Best Looking ETF Charts Today [View article]
    This is not a "discovery" of trends, as you suggest. It is a report about (1) the scarcity of strong trends, and (2) indication of which ETFs continue to trend higher, as many have broken down.

    Out of the hundreds of ETFs only a few are in strong trends, and these are those.

    Some people don't have the time or tools to identify which are up and which are down, so we provide this report as a help, not as some sort of surprising discovery.

    Apparently, you already did the filtering and already knew which specific funds where is strong trends, but the vast majority of readers did not have those facts in hand.
    Aug 5 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst Stock Picks With Liquidity, Growth and Yield - With Macro Caution [View article]
    T is an appropriate position for some of our clients, but not most, based entirely on their specific circumstances and the overall composition of their portfolio. There is no one-size-fits all. We are required by our regulators to disclose any holding thtat is mentioned in any article, regardless of how we feel about it, how long we have had it, why we have it, how much we have, what percentage of clients have it, whether is is a legacy asset mandated by a client or a choice we have made for a client, or any other reason. We may review telecom at some point, but at this point all that is meant by T or any other security in the list is that it passed the specific criteria used. All this article says is that each company on the list is favorably rated by S&P, Schwab and "the Street" generally, and is liquid, growing and yielding competitively with the S&P. As we commented subjectively, T is not in the short list of companies that also have attractive charts as of Friday July 30
    Aug 2 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst Stock Picks With Liquidity, Growth and Yield - With Macro Caution [View article]
    The report is of a screen only, and it not a report on our holdings. We perform numerous screens based on various criteria, and provide the results as a courtesy to those who are doing their own research. We do express specific views of particular stocks in some articles, but not in this one. In your case, you want specific guidance. Some other readers appreciate being provided a narrowed list they can consider for their own further research.
    Aug 2 09:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2011 Wariness [View article]
    If the price of dividend stocks were to fall about 30%, the current amount of dividends would produce about the same after tax result for top bracket investors as they get today. Dividend amounts would have to rise about 40%, if prices did not fall, to put the top brackets in the same position as today -- there is not enough "room" in the financials for the payout grow that much quickly.

    If someone were in the 25% tax bracket, a very common bracket, prices would have to fall about 12% to be after-tax neutral as to yield. Alternatively, the amount of dividends would have to rise bu about 13% to be after-tax neutral. There may be room in some cases to make that happen over a few years, but those sectors such as utilites that are at or near their payout limits would be hard pressed to increase by that much on current revenues and profits.
    Jul 18 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2011 Wariness [View article]
    It does not exclusively impact the highest brackets, and this article is far from fear mongering. The markets will adjust to this new tax regime and they will not adjust favorably. Dividends go from tax preference at 15% to ordinary income rates up to 39.6%, but also all the rates in between, impacting more than just the top. And for everyone, to the extent that valuation changes, all are impacted.
    Jul 18 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2011 Wariness [View article]
    You are correct that the charts are based on the highest marginal tax rate. Since most of our clients are in the highest tax brackets, we chose to use that measure as illustrative of their situation, however, you are correct that the effect will be less on those with fewer assets and less income --- still adverse, but less.
    Jul 16 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2011 Wariness [View article]
    Glad to give you some relief from the seriousness of the markets.
    Jul 15 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Down Run Frequency [View article]
    You over-interpret my statement. I said it was a "good day" in the sense that it was a strong up day. I made no value judgement as to whether it is good for the market or bad for the market to have a strong up day in the midst of a down trend.
    Jul 9 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Broken Support, Lower Lows, Lower Highs, More Pain Ahead [View article]
    Good point on selected dividend companies. As long as you can focus on the cash yield and not the price fluctuation, that approach works.
    Jul 1 01:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget the Indicators, Just Look at the Unadorned Price Charts [View article]
    That's an important point -- the rapid changes -- but fundamental information has more lag than prices -- so virtually all means of being informed are challenged by the rapid pace of change
    Jun 8 08:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Fundamentals, Valuation and Price Behavior [View article]
    We are in bonds and cash for the time being. Exited all equities except for certain legacy assets clients insist on holding. Europe and China exited months ago, US equities exited weeks ago.
    Jun 4 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Fundamentals, Valuation and Price Behavior [View article]
    ERRATA: The label "LT Debt / equity Q1" in the table above should be "LT Debt / total capital Q1" to match the other LT Debt items. The corrected image is at our website, should you need to see it:
    www.qvmgroup.com/2010-...
    Jun 4 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill: Liability Payment Capacity View [View article]
    The chart has nothing to do with the expected period of payment. The last sentence indicates the number of years of payment is indeterminant. The reason for using a 3 year average of sales, and profits is to smooth the data for a view of annual capacity which is the title of the chart "Annual Spill Liability Payment Capacity"
    Jun 2 10:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gulf Oil Spill Market Watch [View article]
    DO was provided as sidebar information to show that companies that are not directly involved in the spill are heavily impacted by the fallout of the spill. The offshore drilling ban has a big impact on companies that do offshore drilling. It may be that they have contracts that will pay anyway, but the fall in the price of companies such as DO reflects concerns that the drilling business has been compromised by the the current ban on drilling, and the possible future rules that may come as a result of the spill.
    Jun 2 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conservative Equity Income Filter: Part 1 [View article]
    No Free Cake -- good observation. actually two typos. the filter was for P/E less than the three year average. in normal times that gives multiple expansion room, and after recessionary periods where P/Es are elevated, the current P/E needs to be lower. I'll see if I can get the image replaced on the SA site. thanks.
    May 24 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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