Volatility Approach to SPY for the Next 30 Days [View article]
Baboon:
Because we used SPY as the proxy for the S&P 500, we used its price (100) for P. SPY is basically 1/10th of the index.
Explanation of 1 Std Dev (that is the expected Std Dev):
One standard deviation expressed as an annualized percentage equals the value of the VIX (yesterday about 26) times the price of the underlying security (1000 if S&P 500 or 100 is SPY as proxy), that product multiplied by the square root of the quantity: the number of projected days (30 in the case of VIX) divided by 365.
Searching for Financially Sound Equity REITS [View article]
DM32:
The database we used is the one supplied by AAII and the LTD to Total Capital is a calculated field provided in that database. You may have data with different "as of dates", or there may be differences in the data rendered by Yahoo (multiple sources) versus AAII (Market Guide).
Comparing Chart Conditions Across 10 Asset Categories [View article]
Notice: The securities in this article ARE NOT separate asset classes. They are separate categories. They are not sufficiently differentiated as to correlation to be considered classes. The original article or our blog uses "Categories" in the title. We have requested a correction of this title to eliminate the use of the word "Classes"
Trolling for High Quality Equity Income [View article]
JP Smith: There are dividend ETFs, but none with a similar approach. You may be more likely to find something like that in the active category. However, no active fund will disclose their full research and selection method, just generalities which are typically so vague as to be nearly useless, and they typically carve out huge exceptions for deviation from their strategy as well.
0% from cash beats negative 30% to 50% in stocks in Q4 2008. We were happy to earn nothing with our cash while watching markets melt back then. it takes a double to get back to zero after a 50% loss
Asset Allocation Didn't Fail: The Allocators Did [View article]
Ernie:
Great point. I do believe that StockCharts plots at least some mutual fund data differently than they plot individual stocks or indexes. This is apparently one of the instances.
Your chart is OK by me, but it is different than the StockCharts chart. Somehow, although they will not say so, StockCharts seems to be including some aspect of total return that causes that difference.
The conclusions about cash vs stocks vs bonds, however, would not be different with other chart services in this instance, although the pictures would be less severe.
I have been in contact with StockCharts.com about the differences between their charts and those from BigCharts, Yahoo Finance, and MetaStock.
Their answers have been opaque to me. I cannot explain why or how they are different. I have suggested to them that if everybody else agrees but them, they must be wrong.
Their response is not helpful. The only part I can understand clearly is their assertion that for technical analysis their way is best.
Fortunately, the discrepancies are are not universal. Mutual funds tend to be more of a problem.
If I could find a service with the same charting features as StockCharts.com (MetaStock has more) with the image sizing and printing features of StockCharts (MetaStock is not good for that), I would not use StockCharts. But for blogging purposes StockCharts is most often the best choice, but not in this instance.
Thank you for your comment. Don't worry about your BigCharts chart. I'll try not to use mutual funds in my future examples, unless I use BigCharts, MetaStock or some service other than StockCharts.
State Budget Gaps and Investment Implications [View article]
Jack Russell -- compliment much appreciated. Would like to know about your firm -- 41 years is good long time to be in the business -- congrats on that. Send me an email with your website address if you like (richard.shaw@QVMgroup...
State Budget Gaps and Investment Implications [View article]
Thanks FatCat -- no criticism felt. I appreciate the comment. Don't overweight my surprise in your own level of concern. I just probably wasn't close enough to the events to fully appreciate depth and breadth of the problems. The feds are in a worse mess, and the towns and cities aren't reported in the budget gaps in this article. I don't know how strong your back is, but mine is prospectively feeling the weight of balancing all those government accounts.
State Budget Gaps and Investment Implications [View article]
fatcat -- you're right about the handwriting on the wall, but I was pleased to find the state-by-state detail and the exact forecasts, which in spite of the prior handwriting was shocking to me to see the magnitude of the problem -- it is even bigger than I imagined
EPS Forecasts Portend Positive Market… Sort Of [View article]
Fred,
Your are a tiresome bore. If you don't like my writing, then stop reading and it if you read it and wish to comment, then actually read it and comment on what I said not what your superficial reading causes you to think I said.
None of the data in this site, or any of the P/E's come from me. They came from S&P or Thompson Reuters. If you think they are doing it wrong then write to them. Barrons published the Reuters data. If you think they are stupid too, then write them.
If you bothered to even read the title, and noticed the "... sort of" ending you might have had the ability to see my expression of doubts about the predictions. However, that is probably too subtle for someone with as blunt and unartful style of commenting as your own.
Also if you had bothered to read the article you would not that it provides P/E for both operating earnings and "as reported" earnings, not just operating earnings as you complain.
Your consistent attack mode on my articles using terms like "nonsense" and "irrelevant", and your condescending tone is unbecoming, and as you can tell frankly pisses me off.
How you could possibly effectively tell me I am stupid for accumulating and reporting data published by S&P and data from Thomspon Reuters and published by Barron's is simply beyond my imagination.
S&P 500: Fundamental and Technical Convergence [View article]
Gwynn: Your 130 multiple doesn't appear to relate to statements in the article or the comment thread. If you believe the P/E is 130, please share your logic. I could not offer any reasons to buy a large cap index at 130 times earnings, but don't believe that is where we are. Elaborate.
S&P 500 Valuation with Normalized Earnings [View article]
Lynn,
You are correct and civil in your criticism. We checked and our data source was not clear on the format. We really should have caught that and appreciate that you did. We then used a different data source with better labeling and redrafted then republished the article on our blog, with the corrected data, keeping the operating earnings data as well to show the difference between using "as reported" and "operating" earnings.
captainccs: thanks for that heads up. i have notified SA editors of the need to fix that. in the meantime, you can access the full time image at my site at:
Volatility Approach to SPY for the Next 30 Days [View article]
Because we used SPY as the proxy for the S&P 500, we used its price (100) for P. SPY is basically 1/10th of the index.
Explanation of 1 Std Dev (that is the expected Std Dev):
One standard deviation expressed as an annualized percentage equals the value of the VIX (yesterday about 26) times the price of the underlying security (1000 if S&P 500 or 100 is SPY as proxy), that product multiplied by the square root of the quantity: the number of projected days (30 in the case of VIX) divided by 365.
Rising Interest in Currency Funds [View article]
Searching for Financially Sound Equity REITS [View article]
The database we used is the one supplied by AAII and the LTD to Total Capital is a calculated field provided in that database. You may have data with different "as of dates", or there may be differences in the data rendered by Yahoo (multiple sources) versus AAII (Market Guide).
Comparing Chart Conditions Across 10 Asset Categories [View article]
Trolling for High Quality Equity Income [View article]
There are dividend ETFs, but none with a similar approach. You may be more likely to find something like that in the active category. However, no active fund will disclose their full research and selection method, just generalities which are typically so vague as to be nearly useless, and they typically carve out huge exceptions for deviation from their strategy as well.
Key Asset Categories vs. Cash [View article]
0% from cash beats negative 30% to 50% in stocks in Q4 2008. We were happy to earn nothing with our cash while watching markets melt back then. it takes a double to get back to zero after a 50% loss
Asset Allocation Didn't Fail: The Allocators Did [View article]
Great point. I do believe that StockCharts plots at least some mutual fund data differently than they plot individual stocks or indexes. This is apparently one of the instances.
Your chart is OK by me, but it is different than the StockCharts chart. Somehow, although they will not say so, StockCharts seems to be including some aspect of total return that causes that difference.
The conclusions about cash vs stocks vs bonds, however, would not be different with other chart services in this instance, although the pictures would be less severe.
I have been in contact with StockCharts.com about the differences between their charts and those from BigCharts, Yahoo Finance, and MetaStock.
Their answers have been opaque to me. I cannot explain why or how they are different. I have suggested to them that if everybody else agrees but them, they must be wrong.
Their response is not helpful. The only part I can understand clearly is their assertion that for technical analysis their way is best.
Fortunately, the discrepancies are are not universal. Mutual funds tend to be more of a problem.
If I could find a service with the same charting features as StockCharts.com (MetaStock has more) with the image sizing and printing features of StockCharts (MetaStock is not good for that), I would not use StockCharts. But for blogging purposes StockCharts is most often the best choice, but not in this instance.
Thank you for your comment. Don't worry about your BigCharts chart. I'll try not to use mutual funds in my future examples, unless I use BigCharts, MetaStock or some service other than StockCharts.
Key Asset Categories vs. Cash [View article]
State Budget Gaps and Investment Implications [View article]
State Budget Gaps and Investment Implications [View article]
State Budget Gaps and Investment Implications [View article]
EPS Forecasts Portend Positive Market… Sort Of [View article]
Your are a tiresome bore. If you don't like my writing, then stop reading and it if you read it and wish to comment, then actually read it and comment on what I said not what your superficial reading causes you to think I said.
None of the data in this site, or any of the P/E's come from me. They came from S&P or Thompson Reuters. If you think they are doing it wrong then write to them. Barrons published the Reuters data. If you think they are stupid too, then write them.
If you bothered to even read the title, and noticed the "... sort of" ending you might have had the ability to see my expression of doubts about the predictions. However, that is probably too subtle for someone with as blunt and unartful style of commenting as your own.
Also if you had bothered to read the article you would not that it provides P/E for both operating earnings and "as reported" earnings, not just operating earnings as you complain.
Your consistent attack mode on my articles using terms like "nonsense" and "irrelevant", and your condescending tone is unbecoming, and as you can tell frankly pisses me off.
How you could possibly effectively tell me I am stupid for accumulating and reporting data published by S&P and data from
Thomspon Reuters and published by Barron's is simply beyond my imagination.
Get a life!
Richard Shaw
S&P 500: Fundamental and Technical Convergence [View article]
Your 130 multiple doesn't appear to relate to statements in the article or the comment thread. If you believe the P/E is 130, please share your logic. I could not offer any reasons to buy a large cap index at 130 times earnings, but don't believe that is where we are. Elaborate.
S&P 500 Valuation with Normalized Earnings [View article]
You are correct and civil in your criticism. We checked and our data source was not clear on the format. We really should have caught that and appreciate that you did. We then used a different data source with better labeling and redrafted then republished the article on our blog, with the corrected data, keeping the operating earnings data as well to show the difference between using "as reported" and "operating" earnings.
www.qvmgroup.com/inves...
Thank you for your observation.
Is Low Quality Leading the Market? [View article]
www.qvmgroup.com/inves...