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Richard Shaw

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  • Stop Loss Orders and Liquidity [View article]
    George, thanks for pointing that out. We left out an important sentence to explain that the list was first filtered for strong a positive pattern in the price charts. You are quite right that SPY is the most heavily traded ETFs. SPY and DIA didn't make the trend strength test we did.

    We will see if we can get that missing qualified into the text.
    Apr 29 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • To Hybrid or Not to Hybrid? [View article]
    No, not a short-term visionary, just someone with advice about deciding TODAY between a Camry hybrid/non-hybrid or an Escape hybrid/non-hybrid. No visionary work whatsoever, just an opinion about choosing between two versions of two models of two makes for a purchase today.
    Apr 19 12:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Hybrid or Not to Hybrid? [View article]
    You miss the point entirely. The article does not compare Prius to other models. It compares same models in conventional and hybrid forms. Get a bicycle and you could save even more. The point is that the premium on a per model basis is not earned back by the gas savings.
    Apr 18 07:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Hybrid or Not to Hybrid? [View article]
    10 years is a long time to own a car and too long to use in a general case analysis
    Apr 18 02:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Hybrid or Not to Hybrid? [View article]
    It's not misleading at all for what it intended to do -- it says that if you want a Camry, the non-hybrid is ultimate low cost choice. If you want and Escape, the non-hybrid is the ultimate low cost choice. To say that we should have compared a Prius to a Camry is apples to oranges. Why not say a Camry is a lower cost choice than a Hummer, true, but not relevant to the question we sought to answer. Apples to apples, the hybrids are still more costly in the end.
    Apr 18 01:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Hybrid or Not to Hybrid? [View article]
    If people are still asking the questions, we still strive to provide the answers. Actually, much of what is written about investing and finance is "rehash", or slightly different takes on long discussed issues. People continuously re-ask and re-learn, and the flow of new people with old questions is never ending.
    Apr 18 11:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford & Toyota: A Tale of Two Car Companies [View article]
    Gee thanks!
    Apr 16 04:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Setting Stop Loss Levels [View article]
    If you are a subscriber, for each INDICATOR you can select an OVERLAY and PARAMETERS for the overlay. Using the BB width Indicator, select Simple Moving Average and Parameter = 63, then on POSITION select Behind Indicator.
    Apr 11 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rates Are Rising: Bond Fund Duration Is Important [View article]
    Interestingly, as Bill Gross points out, it may be more advantageous to seek some extra yield by increasing credit risk than by extending duration, because in a moderately increasing interest rate scenario, the presumption is of an improving economy which reduces credit risk in general, which partially counterbalances the negative price impact of rate rises on the duration element of bonds.

    Also higher yielding bonds of a given maturity have a lower duration that lower yielding bonds of the same maturity, because, as the duration calculation goes, the original loan amount is recovered at a faster rate with higher yielding loans (bonds).
    Apr 6 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rates Are Rising: Bond Fund Duration Is Important [View article]
    You State:
    "they are safer because even if they go down in price the yield rises and therefore you still have a gain" as has been repeated here.

    We Respond:
    We said nothing of the kind. We "repeated" no such statement, nor did we even remotely suggest the meaning of that statement. Your quote is not from our article, and your interepretation of our meaning is incorrect. You misunderstand the article entirely, if you think we said that rising yields compensate for falling prices.
    Apr 6 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Practical Use of VIX for S&P 500 Investors [View article]
    The are taken directly from statistical Z-value tables. You can use Excel to derive them, but you can also look them up online at various sources in Z-value tables.
    Apr 4 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternate Constituent Weightings in the S&P 500 [View article]
    We've added this important footnote to the P/E ratios for the equal weighted S&P 500 companies to our blog posting and add it here for clarification:

    "This ratio for equal weighted S&P 500 stocks is the average of the individual company P/E ratios which do not include those with negative earnings. It is not the ratio of the sum of all market-caps to the sum of all earnings (both positive and negative), which we will explore in a subsequent article."
    Apr 4 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Matching Cash Flow Needs with a Bond Ladder [View article]
    Given the conditions you stated, it does make more sense to own a portfolio of bonds than individual bonds. To get good pricing, you need to buy large size positions, and to minimize credit risk you need many different issuers. You are less likely to experience default as a percentage of your investment in a fund than in a less diversified portfolio of individual bonds. Rising interest rates in and of themselves do not increase defaults, but if the rates exceed the capacity of states and cities to tax and pay, then default risk increases on the bonds issued by those particular entities -- all the more reason for a fund than an personal collection of individual bonds.
    Apr 2 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What’s Active Management, And What’s Not? [View article]
    Actually, I made no assumption about anyone's risk tolerance and specifically said people should deviate as appropriate. The question is simply do you start with an all US allocation as a US person and then add some international, or do you start with a world allocation and tilt in the direction and the the extent you feel is appropriate.
    Mar 29 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Matching Cash Flow Needs with a Bond Ladder [View article]
    Until the funds are liquid, the bid/ask spread is a problem. That needs watching.
    Mar 20 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment