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Richard Shaw  

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  • Persistent, Consistent Dividend Payers [View article]
    Concerning Aristocrats, S&P has talked about difficulties since 2008 meeting their 50 company plan.

    Concerning per minute trading, I disagree of course because that is my position. We have some positions in the millions. It is not reasonable for example, to buy $3 million of a stock that trades $4,000 per minute, for example. That would take 750 minutes, or about 2 days, if the investor were the only seller, in the event of a need or desire to exit. That would be inappropriate in our philosophy.

    The example is extreme for effect, but we wish to be able to enter and exit both quickly and cleanly, without being a disturbance to the market,

    We disagree that per minute trading means nothing -- it is an important part of our security selection, but differences in view are what make a market.
    Dec 22, 2010. 08:08 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Persistent, Consistent Dividend Payers [View article]
    that sounds reasonable -- thanks -- to be clear, the list is not a recommendation -- just a screen for dividend payment history to which logic such as your need be applied
    Dec 21, 2010. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Setting Stop Loss Levels [View article]
    No. It is a true measure of the difference between the 200-day SMA and the price, AND IF you don't want to own a position trading below the 200-day SMA, you would feel compelled to exit if the price declined by that percentage gap between the 200-day and the price. You might well wish to use a tighter exit based on other tests such as price channels, standard deviations or other tests. The 200-day test in the instance you mentioned is probably the widest stop you might consider, based on your statement that it is "too large" --- NOTE: this is not personal investment advice, only discussion of the concepts in the article
    Dec 21, 2010. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity REIT Yields vs. 10-Year Treasury Yields [View article]
    Dr. Case:

    Is it correct to assume that institutional investors consist primarily of life insurance companies, endowments and pension funds? And is it fair to assume that the management capabilities, finance, and portfolios and acquisitions capabilities of REITs and institutions are roughly the same?

    If both of those assumptions are reasonably correct, and if your statement that institutional real estate portfolio have been flat with respect to capital appreciation, while REIT share prices have shown capital appreciation, does that not simply mean that minority public investors have been yield seeking and accepting increasingly lower yields as Treasuries have gone done in yield (Treasury yields have been in decline for the 33 years you studied in your article), whereas institutions have not been able to sell or appraise their holdings at higher prices sufficient to match the returns of REITs because private investors are not willing to buy at as low capitalization rates (with lower expected yield) as REIT investors are accepting in the multiples they put on REIT shares?

    And if that is a correct interpretation, wouldn't that make the argument that REIT income is highly sensitive to Treasury yields?
    Dec 21, 2010. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Yield Contribution to Total Return Worldwide [View article]
    This article does not contend that investing in dividends makes the highest total return. It states that dividends are an important part of return of the over all market, and that dividends tend to dampen volatility, and that for certain investors (those drawing on their portfolios) the "risk of ruin" is reduced, as compared to a non-dividend portfolio. Nothing wrong with attempting to have a portfolio consisting non-dividend stocks if that meets your particular needs.
    Dec 21, 2010. 07:25 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity REIT Yields vs. 10-Year Treasury Yields [View article]
    That is correct, as I stated in the article:

    "... mean reversion will bring their prices down unless they can substantially increase cash flow and distributions."
    Dec 20, 2010. 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity REIT Yields vs. 10-Year Treasury Yields [View article]
    No, but they could be analized in a similar manner.
    Dec 19, 2010. 05:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETF Asset Size Not as Important as Dollar Trading Volume, Ownership Turnover [View article]
    Yes, 5,000 million is 5 billion.

    Here are the average share volumes for SPY for various periods from StockCharts as of 10/27/2010:

    10 days: 191,215,472
    21 day: 186,598,736
    63 day: 195,098,720
    126 days: 240,633,904
    252 days: 212,403,088

    We aren't likely to resolve the WHYs and HOWs for database differences, so I am going to move on from this data point dialogue, but the basic point of the article that dollar trading volume is more important to investors when determining safe positions sizes than total assets, and that turnover of ownership may have implications for price stability when moods change.
    Oct 28, 2010. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETF Asset Size Not as Important as Dollar Trading Volume, Ownership Turnover [View article]
    Yes, and if you take three decimal places off of the AAII SIP data you get my number which is noted in the header as $MM (which is short for millions).

    AAII SIP data is in thousands, so to express data as millions ($MM), you take off three decimal places.

    So our data on 3 month average daily dollar volume from AAII agrees. AAII says SPY does approximately $53 billion per day.

    How and why it may differ from other data is not something I can explain at this time. I also doubt that using a different set of data from a different source would produce a materially different conclusion, but I'd like to see that data if anybody cares to produce it.
    Oct 27, 2010. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETF Asset Size Not as Important as Dollar Trading Volume, Ownership Turnover [View article]
    Ron, I reviewed the data at the source again, and find these tables to be true to that. Perhaps we should have an offline discussion to see where/why/how the differences in our source exist -- Richard
    Oct 25, 2010. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETF Asset Size Not as Important as Dollar Trading Volume, Ownership Turnover [View article]
    Ron, the data came from AAII database. will review and get back.
    Oct 24, 2010. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dark Side of Stop Loss Orders [View article]
    Please take your conspiracy theory elsewhere. We were shocked the moment the stops happened and the chart crashed -- as you would have been. We were extraordinarily relieved to learn that the problem was not a real one -- as you would have been --, and that Schwab took appropriate steps (that they would also have taken for you) to correct the error. The only possible difference between our case and that of some other non-specific case is that we called Schwab to tell them we believed the trade was some kind of error about moments after it occurred. We don't know if they or other brokers have systems that can spot each and every case of such situations, or if account holders must call in some cases to alert the broker to the problem. If a trade is not "busted" after some period of time (perhaps same day), it becomes impossible or unlikely to be able to be negated. Lighten up on the conspiracy stuff. We may not be the smartest guys around, but we aren't stupid enough to do something illegal and then publish an article about it to hundreds of thousands of readers.
    Oct 3, 2010. 07:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dark Side of Stop Loss Orders [View article]
    That is an entirely valid approach, and one we have used from time-to-time, but it only works when prices sink in an orderly way -- such as bad news coming out and a company falling 10% and basically staying there for a while -- not just a few seconds -- and after some days or weeks getting back to where it was as the severity of the news is reconsidered and found less damaging. Fishing for good entry points by entering GTC buy orders well below the current price, can sometimes net some good opportunities, but that approach can also hitch you a ride further down, if you have not made a wisely considered selection.
    Oct 3, 2010. 01:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dark Side of Stop Loss Orders [View article]
    We got out well above 109 at a price roughly equal to that prevailing in the minute after the short crash. Very little damage.
    Oct 3, 2010. 01:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dark Side of Stop Loss Orders [View article]
    You suspect wrong.
    Oct 2, 2010. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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