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Richard Shaw

 
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  • S&P 500 Price Not Expensive By Historical P/Es [View article]
    No Free Cake -- nice chart -- thanks
    Jul 24, 2013. 07:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Price Not Expensive By Historical P/Es [View article]
    Yes, the legend on the chart specifies that the 109 estimate is from S&P, and that the average IBES estimate is 111

    I have made no estimates
    Jul 23, 2013. 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Price Not Expensive By Historical P/Es [View article]
    Ed Yardeni, does a similar chart using forward operating earnings from 2007. It shows a high of just over 15x in 2007. A low under 10x in 2008, and a current level of about 14.5x
    Jul 23, 2013. 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Price Not Expensive By Historical P/Es [View article]
    Not today. The day is over for me.
    Jul 23, 2013. 06:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Price Not Expensive By Historical P/Es [View article]
    Tiger777: I put a plot of operating earnings, reported net income and dividends at the end of the article on my blog if you wish to see it
    http://bit.ly/15efHpy
    Jul 23, 2013. 05:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Price Not Expensive By Historical P/Es [View article]
    Not an unreasonable argument, but the shift to a longer term regime might not occur over night, and presumably the shift would be detectable and allow for adjustment
    Jul 23, 2013. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Price Not Expensive By Historical P/Es [View article]
    I agree "ex Items" is a very wide loophole for reporting earnings. It varies a great deal by company and type of company. I think I'll put together a chart on that for the S&P 500 as a whole. Will be interesting.
    Jul 23, 2013. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Watchful: Muni Tax Exemption Under Continued Attack [View article]
    They use borrowed funds. I don't know if they have legal limits, but they have practical limits. You might want to look here for more info on how much leverage they use.
    http://bit.ly/vdSVdQ
    Jul 21, 2013. 11:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Watchful: Muni Tax Exemption Under Continued Attack [View article]
    Yes, that is my understanding
    Jul 18, 2013. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Watchful: Muni Tax Exemption Under Continued Attack [View article]
    The BuildAmerican bonds are a specific example. In exchange for issuing fully taxable muni bonds, the Feds agreed to reimburse part of the interest expense, BUT they get to pick and chose which purposes get funded with BuildAmerica bonds, and there has been at least one example in Florida where the Feds said they don't have to honor the reimbursement if there are other financial issues between the state and the federal government that are in dispute
    Jul 16, 2013. 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Watchful: Muni Tax Exemption Under Continued Attack [View article]
    You muni CEFs may be dropping in part due to the fact that they use leverage and interest rates are rising.

    Must laws are instituted prospectively (but not always), however the market anticipates, and could have the same effect as retroactive law (just look at what the suggestion of future tapering did to Treasury rates)
    Jul 16, 2013. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Watchful: Muni Tax Exemption Under Continued Attack [View article]
    In a world where the Constitution was not violated in many other ways
    Jul 16, 2013. 09:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Watchful: Muni Tax Exemption Under Continued Attack [View article]
    Counterpoint: if major tax reform were to reduce top tax rates, muni bonds would see less demand, and have to raise raise rates on new issues, and old issues would decline --- although I doubt it has a chance, if we were to move to a sales tax (with negative tax subsidies for low income), muni bonds would have to pay the same as taxable bonds, because there would be no income tax to shelter -- states an local debt financing would be come much more expensive, and state and local income and property taxes would rise (whatever tax form they had then would extract more than taxes do today)
    Jul 16, 2013. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Watchful: Muni Tax Exemption Under Continued Attack [View article]
    OOPS! The word NO is missing. We have no positions. That will be fixed. Thanks
    Jul 15, 2013. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Watchful: Muni Tax Exemption Under Continued Attack [View article]
    One would hope so, but retroactive tax law does happen. In the 1989 tax revision, the depreciation rules for real estate where changed retroactively, which changed the economics on which some investments were made.

    And let's not forget breaking the promise to convert paper money to gold, nor the violation of bond holder's rights during the auto industry bail out. Those were not tax laws, but they are government deciding to take money from some in the name of the "common good". If the "common good" is invoked, retroactive tax law changes will not be impossible or even unlikely.
    Jul 15, 2013. 11:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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