Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Richard Shaw  

View Richard Shaw's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Survey Of Technical Condition And Portfolio Attributes Of Key Bond Fund Types [View article]
    This was not intended to provide an actionable idea. That is why it is titled "survey" and why the narrative talks about providing the broad perspective necessary to make your own suitability decision. Not every article is meant to tell you what to do. Some as this one are meant to gather and distill data that most people do not have or do not have the time or tools to assemble. There is a large wide choice of bond fund investments and this tries to put them categorically into perspective.
    Apr 16, 2015. 01:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Trend Analysis By Comparing Equal Weight To Market Weight Indexes [View article]
    Nice analogy
    "I may look just fine, but I'm not feeling all that well."
    Mar 27, 2015. 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Trend Analysis By Comparing Equal Weight To Market Weight Indexes [View article]
    Glad to be of help. Also along the same lines, the ratio of performance of the market-cap weighted indexes is illuminating. Example: Russell 2000 over Russell 1000, or Consumer Discretionary over Consumer Staples, or S&P 100 (or Russell Top 50) over S&: 500, and similar ratios. Presumably if the smaller cap is doing better than the larger cap, the market is stronger than if the reverse, and if the discretionary is doing better that the necessary, the market is stronger than if the reverse.
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury's Quicksilver Market Reversal Indicators Vs. David Rosenberg Indicators [View article]
    I have heard that many times too, and I do expect at least a temporary negative reaction to the first Fed rate increase, but the factual history as shown in the top panel of the last image is that the saying is not always true -- in fact false in the last 20 years
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha, From One Contributor's Perspective [View article]
    I'm with you on that
    Mar 25, 2015. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha, From One Contributor's Perspective [View article]
    You have a good point.
    Mar 25, 2015. 11:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Relative Sortino Risk Adjusted Returns For Mutual Funds [View article]
    this is Morningstar calculation
    Mar 24, 2015. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Relative Risk Adjusted Return For Retirees And Those Who Prefer A Smoother Ride [View article]
    sorry about spelling error. mobile app appears not to enable correcting replies. the auto correct on phone slips in unintended spellings
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Relative Risk Adjusted Return For Retirees And Those Who Prefer A Smoother Ride [View article]
    yes MS Sortinino
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Relative Risk Adjusted Return For Retirees And Those Who Prefer A Smoother Ride [View article]
    I will be seeking to publish an article on relative risk adjusted return for mutual funds, but it will be elsewhere because SeekingAlpha does not publish mutual fund related articles. When/If published, I will post a note here as to its location.
    Mar 21, 2015. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Relative Risk Adjusted Return For Retirees And Those Who Prefer A Smoother Ride [View article]
    Well thank you very much! -- but they shot him in the head for his clarity.
    I do appreciate the compliment.
    Mar 21, 2015. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Fund Choices For Retiree Portfolios [View article]
    I believe it is reasonable to capitalize your pension at an appropriate cap rate (considering interest rates and the risk of your pension defaulting) and treat it as a long-term bond asset in your portfolio
    Feb 22, 2015. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Fund Choices For Retiree Portfolios [View article]
    I disagree with the advise you were given

    check my response to "popple45" above.
    Feb 22, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Fund Choices For Retiree Portfolios [View article]
    Agree
    Feb 22, 2015. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Fund Choices For Retiree Portfolios [View article]
    NO. While you may not see quoted rates. if you decide to sell an individual bond before maturity, it's price change from your purchase price will reflect the difference in interest rates since you bought it, adjusted for the difference in the credit quality (if any) and for the remaining years to maturity (which would be less than when you bought it, assuming you did more than trade it). Keep in mind that a "round lot" in bonds is 100 bonds ($100,000 assuming $1,000 face amount per bond). Any individual bond purchase on a retail level is prone to unfavorable mark-ups by dealers relative to what a fund can get, and with size comes pricing benefits. Purchases below 100 bonds are more expensive, and possibly purchases of say 1,000 bonds get sharp prices. By owning individual bonds in small numbers you have more issue specific credit risk. You need a ton on money to get a good ladder and a good credit risk diversification in bonds. Also, it may be a lot easier to buy the bonds than sell them (at least for a reasonable price). Bonds don't trade like stocks. They are posted for sale and shopped around, but are not bought and sold at the click of a button.

    You don't avoid interest rate risk with individual bonds, but you do put up management headaches and other risks that are significant.

    Some would say, if you get all of your money back at maturity, where is the interest rates risk. Ignoring that you may not get all of your money back with every credit bond, you incur interest rate risk if rates rise by not earning current market yields along the way. If you buy a 3% bond and rates to 4%, then you don't get the 1% rate rise, while somebody else buys the same bond when the rates rise and gets the 4% yield.

    In theory, the price reduction in the bond if you sell it before maturity after rates have risen is about equal to the present value of the interest increase you would not receive if you held the bond to maturity.
    Feb 22, 2015. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,042 Comments
1,435 Likes