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Richard Shaw

 
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  • This S&P 500 Rally Does Not Have Good Legs [View article]
    Do you mean opinions like this or people like me -- the later being a personal attack, the former being about the idea argument.

    And for the record, this article has nothing to do with the "sooner or later" comment you made. It simply says that the relationship between movement of categories is not normally characteristic of a rally, and that there are evident contradictions in the rise.

    No recommendation to buy or sell. FYI, We are fully invested at time.

    May I presume from your comment that you would prefer to be unaware of what is going on, and to make your investment decisions in the dark?

    Actually, looking at your last comment in your history before this one, I notice that you made your own negative call on March 18 as follows:

    "Time To Lighten Up On The Refiners [View article]
    looking at futures this morning,might be time to lighten up on whole market."

    I wonder if you feel so badly about "people like you" who made "sooner or later" calls to sell this rally. Surely you will eventually be right, but since you were totally wrong, you may need to make yourself feel better about your error by striking out at other who provide cautionary information, including ones to provide substantive information to support their idea, not just unsupported statements of opinion like the one you made then, and like the empty one you made here.
    Apr 10 07:13 AM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Valuations Of Dividend Stocks And Cyclical Stocks [View article]
    There are attractive dividend producing stocks with lower P/E ratios than the S&P 500, and which trade at a discount to their historical mean P/E ratios. One must be selective and also use valuation factors as well as yield factors in the selection process. Using dividend only selection criteria is not a good idea.

    However, I am concerned that at SA there seems to be a kind of "religious" divide between those who "believe" and don't believe in dividend stocks. Yet, "dividend stocks" are not really defined. There are good ones and bad ones, as their are good and bad non-dividend paying stocks. The reality is far less "all of this" or "all of that" than many articles or comments have become.

    Dividends without a financially healthy company that is growing and priced reasonably are not attractive. However, some people need or prefer more of their total return in cash on a current basis in the form of dividends, and some do not. That is no reason to label each other as on one team or the other, then go from there to thinking that the other team (whichever you are on) is right, and the other is wrong.

    The question of dividends or not dividends as part of the selection process should be a matter of suitability -- financial needs, emotional needs; working or retired; short or long investment time horizons; other sources of income (wages, pensions, etc) or income only from portfolio; and other factors.

    There is far too little discussion of suitability in the dividend or non-dividend discussions, and far too much emotion in many of the comments. The question is what does each person want from their investments and what do they need and what are their limits and constraints.

    Someone with a good job and 30 years to retirement does not need the same things as someone 70 years old retired with only Social Security and say $100,000, versus someone 70 years old with $10 million in a portfolio. There is a multitude of circumstances and many appropriate approaches to investing based on the right thing for the specific person.

    It is not possible to create any proof that there is one correct way to invest. Let's try to spend more time as a community presenting approaches in the context of suitability, and less on forming camps of opposing theorists about right and wrong investing.
    Jul 26 01:18 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Your Only Option Was To Own 10-Yr Treasuries Or The S&P 500 For 10 Years [View article]
    remurraymd:

    we own both individual stocks and some index product -- guess that makes us fools -- good to know there are people like you who only buy "10-baggers" for 1000% profit -- you must be awfully rich by now

    your brashness prevents you from understanding the purpose of the exercise -- too busy looking in the mirror while you read

    there was no suggestion to buy indices (although we do not think index investors are fools as you do). the purpose was to point out the terribly overpriced condition of today's Treasuries, and to point out that a longer term view of stocks can help look past the day-to-day "risk on", "risk off" frenetic activity, driven by hyperactive media that is driving people out of stocks into bonds

    this article is a form of mental exercise, just a thought experiment, not a set of recommendations -- but you didn't figure that out

    perhaps you would care to reveal some of your method and track record buying only 1000% profit securities -- I am sure many of us would love to see how you do that on a consistent basis -- at that rate how many years does it take for your wealth to reach infinity?
    Jul 16 05:23 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Largest Pipeline MLPs: Ratings From Very Bullish To Strong Sell From Thompson Reuters 'Star Mine' [View article]
    Sir -- I did not rate any of the MLPs, let alone SXL.

    Had you taken the time to actually read what I wrote, you would have noticed that the ratings are provided by Thompson Reuters StarMine (which is the consensus of the analyst that they believe are most accurate on each security). I merely reported what Thompson Reuters says.

    I also stated that it looked like the analysts were highly influenced by the historical charts.

    Please try to direct your frustration in the correct direction. And please take the time to read and comprehend before criticizing articles.
    May 3 11:03 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dark Side of Stop Loss Orders [View article]
    You are correct that stops are not protection, as insurance. They are protection against losses greater than an amount you are willing to take to stay in the position. Puts can protect from first dollar (or after a specific loss if not at-the-money), but they have a cost and they expire requiring a renewal cost. Stops don't provide first dollar protection and have a corridor of loss potential, but the do not have a cash outlay and either do not expire or can be reinstated each time without cost. Both puts and stop loss orders provide forms of protection with different features, effects and costs.
    Oct 2 08:04 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Your Only Option Was To Own 10-Yr Treasuries Or The S&P 500 For 10 Years [View article]
    remurraymd AND yellowhoard -- what's with this "FOOLS" language -- can't you guys take a slightly less arrogant way to express your views

    secondly neither of your comments are responsive to the purpose and objective of the article -- it wasn't about whether indices or individual stocks are better, and it wasn't about whether an asset category other than stocks or Treasuries could be more profitable -- it was a thought experiment about a BINARY choice between US stocks and today's 10-yr Treasuries to explore the issue of total return comparisons of those two asset categories over comparable time frames.

    Too much of the discussion in many articles and radio and TV shows compares the high certainty of principal recovery at maturity by Treasuries to the volatile nature of stocks over days, weeks, months and quarters --- whereas, we believe that comparing stocks over the same time period as the life of the Treasury is the fairest comparison
    Jul 16 06:13 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Good Could Come for the U.S. From the Turmoil in Egypt? [View article]
    Of course it is bad news. That is the obvious part. There is no spin here, only one more chance for the US to see the handwriting on the wall about energy security. If the US reads that handwriting and does something about it, then that part is good news.
    Jan 29 08:32 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Stock Plus Dividends: Better Than Bonds [View article]
    If the moon were made of blue cheese ...

    This is a 10 year analysis, not to perpetuity. Their cash is huge, their franchise would not disappear overnight.

    You could say the same thing about any dividend stock, if their product prices were cut by 90%.
    Nov 13 09:17 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 35% Decline In Gold? KITCO Analyst Suggests That Possibility [View article]
    Well, we aren't into personal attacks about authors and people who give interviews -- so we will look past the unnecessary roughness in your comments.

    However, Nadler or not, the 2008 situation did result in a 35% reduction and there are those who might not be called fools who believe that some of the things going on in Europe could create a general market problem similar to 2008. In such a case it is not out of the realm of possibility that another 35% dip could occur.

    So try looking at the charts and forgetting the names of those whose opinions were cited.

    I personally have had large exposures to gold ETFs on and off. I am off at the moment, but have sold PUTs that are likely to reinstate holdings in a big way.

    However, if you want your own credibility as a commenter to be high, you might refrain from calling people fools. It detracts from your argument.
    Aug 25 05:38 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P P/E's Versus 10-Yr Treasury Rates From 1957 [View article]
    Wrong maybe. "dillusional" is a bit over the top for a comment.
    Jun 23 10:06 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Holdings Of 13 Dividend Income Funds [View article]
    First "never" is an overly strong condition.

    Second, this article stipulates that the investor is a retiree and not in the 20 to 50 age range

    Third, she stipulated high quality and low volatility with above average yield ... which tends to be found among larger more than smaller companies
    Dec 16 08:44 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Your Only Option Was To Own 10-Yr Treasuries Or The S&P 500 For 10 Years [View article]
    There is nothing false whatsoever in constructing a question for a thought exercise. The nature of a thought experiment or exercise is to isolate a limited set of variable and see how they behave.

    Don't you understand the significance of a title that begins with "What If ..." and a first sentence that begins with "If your only option was ..."

    If you read you would note that I said this is not a recommendation, that I believe in and practice allocation -- this is just an exercise to explore an issue -- why is that so hard to comprehend?

    Try reading a bit more closely -- perhaps you are not used to exploration of ideas and only expect articles to be pre-digested recommendations for action -- this is not that -- this is food for thought to roll data around in your head, and consideration of a question that has nothing to do with your comment

    Please try to grasp the nature of the content of an article before making fundamentally irrelevant comments such as this one --- if I was attempting to make an allocation recommendation or to select funds for a portfolio, I would have said so and done so.
    Jul 16 09:45 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 33 Favorite Equity Income Stocks Of 6 Top Actively Managed Rated Equity Income Funds [View article]
    BlueOkie

    First, there is no suggestion that you rebalance at all, let alone do it monthly. This simply shows you the impact of doing so, as that is what the software we used has as its only option -- and by the way it is what is practiced by some large accounts.

    Second, "silly" is a judgement that may make sense to you but not to others. In a tax free or tax deferred account there is no tax drag from rebalancing, and for large accounts commissions are inconsequential as a percentage of assets. For small accounts commissions are important.

    With commissions in the $10 or less range, and with trades of $1,000 the commission is 1%. For trades of $10,000 the commission is 0.1%. For trades of $100,000 the commission is 0.01%.

    I contend that a 0.01% trading cost is likely to be no problem, and that 0.1% may often work if the security had a large enough price change, and that a 1% trading cost would most often be too much to be worthwhile, except in cases of very large price changes in the position.

    If the commission is too high relative to the amount to be rebalanced, you don't do it; but if the commission is not too high then rebalancing can make sense. It is all a matter of the size of the portfolio, as well as the level of attention and work you are will to apply.

    It is important not to judge the discussion of a method that is not tailored to your personal situation as "silly", but rather to simply decide that it is not for you. You would have been better to say, that you don't have enough money to make the approach economically practical.
    Mar 10 11:22 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    Pedro -- You may well be correct about Apple's future. Certainly, that is why we got in, but I do not have the hubris to call others "fools" for having an opinion other than my own
    Dec 11 10:31 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You a Left Brain Or Right Brain Dividend Investor? [View article]
    First, nobody said invest "solely" for dividends. And , nobody said they are investments "for all seasons"

    Since you need to attack others while attempting to make a point, you obviously are over-invested in your own philosophy, to the point that you read into statements by others concepts that are not there.

    There is no need to suggest that you are smart and others are stupid. Please take insulting comments about other commenters or contributors to other forums, where talking trash is the norm.
    Apr 18 09:26 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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