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Richard Shaw  

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  • The Grinch May Steal The Christmas Rally [View article]
    I don't believe there is a fixed time frame. Not aware of any precisely the same measurements, although a service called Lowry Research has its own measures of breadth along some of the same lines, and for a multi-decade period (it is a subscription service). I assume the degree and consistency of divergence (such as angle of ascent of one and the angle of descent of the other, would have a lot to do with the time frame -- but there are always other forces on securities that could moderate or counteract the implications of the divergence -- that is why I referred to the divergence as a warning (one I am taking seriously), but not a specific all ---- market tops are not singular events in time, but rather evolving conditions, as Corrections and Bears rolls through parts of the underlying sectors, industries and individual securities in an index

    Sorry not able to be more specific. Just take the info onboard, combine with other information you have and relate it to your goals, limits, time frames, and need for or lack of need for cash from the portfolio to make your own decision

    In our own case (not necessarily right for you), we take this, in combination with other data, to hold above average cash for those of our accounts for parties at or near retirement, and who do not have excess assets for their retirement neeeds
    Nov 24, 2015. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Grinch May Steal The Christmas Rally [View article]
    If your goal is long-term income and income growth, there are few times when it is not a good time to buy dividend stocks with long-term patterns of consistent dividend growth and currently attractive yields as well as reasonable valuation relative to its own history and certain absolute values you may establish such as payout ratio and PEG ratio, among others.

    The less you need to sell stocks to generate income, and the more you intend to derive return from income, the less important market price cycles matter to you. However, the converse is also true.

    No specific calendar on dividend stock articles, but probably something soon.

    Nov 23, 2015. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Grinch May Steal The Christmas Rally [View article]
    your description of the market as "bipolar" in your bio is a good one
    Nov 23, 2015. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Grinch May Steal The Christmas Rally [View article]
    recently TRV, ACE, TROW, RTN, UTX
    Nov 23, 2015. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Factor Trend Reversal Indicator Sees A Bear [View article]

    I use the yield curve as a recession indicator.
    Have included that data in other articles, but should probably reference it more often.

    Recession almost always means Bear, but the Bear tends to arrive before the recession -- at least certainly before the "after the fact" official designation of a recession by the govt
    Oct 12, 2015. 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Target Date Funds As Aid In Retirement Portfolio Design [View article]
    To be clear, this is not a recommendation to own target date funds. we own none. The article makes the point that being aware of the models is useful, and may serve, in conjunction with pure risk allocation models, as a base from which to deviate to create a personally suitable portfolio.

    The performance of the actual funds and of proxy simulation are clearly presented including return give up
    Oct 5, 2015. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Is Now More Likely Than Not [View article]
    (1) secular judgements are not made on the basis of several days
    (2) if you read more closely you would see it talks of the weight of evidence not of certainty
    Let's see how things play out of a longer period than a week.
    Also, stocks have not "rocketed" - they merely reached the approximate mid-point of their decline from July
    Oct 5, 2015. 04:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Is Now More Likely Than Not [View article]
    thanks i'll fix that
    Sep 29, 2015. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Best Performing S&P 100 Stocks [View article]
    Well said.
    Responsibility investing is a valid approach with essentially same overall profit potential as unrestricted investing
    Sep 25, 2015. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Best Performing S&P 100 Stocks [View article]
    I understand, but in my personal case, having seen so many cancer deaths among friends and family, I just can't bring myself to put money in a product that causes cancer -- death by cancer is ugly -- and my doctor clients and a non-profit specifically instruct me not to invest in tobacco
    Sep 23, 2015. 06:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Best Performing S&P 100 Stocks [View article]
    That's a typo which I will have SA fix -- sorry & thanks
    Sep 23, 2015. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Market Watch [View article]
    What is true of many of the wealthy as well as others is the tendency to spend in proportion to assets -- so sometimes some people you would think of as all set, because they have a lot of money, still have the risk of outliving assets due to their spend level -- and some people simply cannot cope emotionally with major drawdowns which has nothing to do with wealth or spend -- and some simply like the idea of changing allocation significantly around what are perceived to be major trend changes

    We do not manage to model portfolios, but rather to investment policies established with each client based on their real life goals and circumstances

    I lean toward dividend income and dividend growth personally, but also believe there are times to be light on equity and repurchase at better prices -- that is why we were only down 10% in 2008, and could repurchase stocks at prices well below 2007 levels
    Sep 23, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Market Watch [View article]
    No not all, but some
    And some would rather sell dividend stocks and repurchase at lower prices
    No not to get by -- most have investments greater than $5 million and some with 10's of millions -- getting by is not even a topic for any of our clients
    Sep 23, 2015. 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Best Performing S&P 100 Stocks [View article]
    i agree. no suggestion that anyone buy here - just observing the few stocks that have held up

    we have massively reduced equity over past several months.

    i am personally 73% cash at this time waiting for re-entry.

    read my prior two articles to see our negative technical view
    Sep 23, 2015. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction Yes; Bear Probably Not Soon, But Possible - Key Indicators Discussed [View article]
    I agree that we have a statistically small sample size for the yield curve (the "Term Spread"). Unfortunately, most investment indicators have the same sample size problem. Seeking confirmation from indicators based on non-overlapping factors is one way to partially overcome the reliability of single indicators.

    As one reader pointed out, the Fed manipulation of interest rates may make the yield curve less reliable than otherwise. That is partly why we included the 5-yr/10-yr curve in the supporting charts -- those rates being less impacted by ZIRP than the 3-mo/10-yr

    Yes, it's a really tough call. The multi-factor Stress Indexes are still good (and they have only two recession of backtest, but logical support), but then the high yield options adjusted yield spread (the "Quality Spread") has been flashing warnings for some time.

    What is your opinion of the research papers from the New York Fed (1996)and the National Bureau of Economic Research through University of Wisconsin (2010) on the yield curve predictive powers?
    Aug 31, 2015. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment