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Richard Shaw

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  • Apple's True Opportunities In 2013 [View article]
    Nice big bold first article on SA
    Enjoyable read
    Thanks
    Mar 20 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    425 looks all the more likely after today.
    The value argument is there, but first the momentum holders must be washed out. Until they are gone, value attributes will not be able to support the price
    Jan 25 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    At this point, I think you are right that the general 425 area is where the charts show support. We may have to get there, but there are some solid for that being too far as well -- yield being one important one.

    At 425, the yield would be nearly 2.5% (substantially above the S&P 500) and into the bottom of the dividend investor range -- while at the same time, many of its other fundamentals being stronger than the S&P 500.

    This morning the average Street 1-year consensus is 634. There are 2 Sells, 1 Underperform, 9 Holds, 20 Outperforms, and 24 Buys.

    The yield is about 2.3% (10.60/453) -- competitive with the S&P 500, but with a stronger balance sheet

    The trailing P/E and EV/EBITDA are in value stock territory

    On the chart also, the price is more than two standard deviations from the 63-day average, which is a strongly oversold condition. That doesn't mean the price won't continue to decline, but that the precipitous fall is likely to take a breather. Also the volume has been high relative to averages, suggesting a wash out of the growth/momentum style, and given the yield and price multiples, substitution by more value oriented investors.
    Jan 25 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    After being kicked around quite a bit for saying Apple had gone up too far too fast, and was due for a fall; today's price action ought to cause a few Apple zealots who deny all negative indications with angry retorts to eat a little humble pie.
    Jan 24 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
    Wish I had put that in the article - great point
    Jan 16 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
    Do you mean that's the problem now, or the future?
    Jan 15 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
    I agree that they error in the payout ratio, based on a Yahoo Finance data point, should be corrected. My comment acknowledging the error high in the comments may not be sufficient. I have submitted a correction to SA. My thesis is intact, however, and withdrawal of the article in its entirety is not necessary. I expect the corrected text to be up shortly. Thanks for commenting.
    Jan 15 06:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
    Oh well -- pretty soon, next week
    Jan 15 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
    Follow-up to earlier reply: You are right -- Yahoo did not annualize the payout. My payout point is weaker, but the yield is still low -- thanks for pointing that out
    Jan 15 02:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
    The Surface Pro may surprise -- it fits the corporate structure so much better than the iPad -- able to run full Office and legacy systems and applications that will not run on OSX
    Jan 15 02:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
    I see Google Glass as a plausible game changer -- wearable computing to eliminate hand held devices is a logical next step. Allegedly, Apple and Microsoft have laboratory work on wearables too, but Google seems to be out front on that. Certainly, if they release Google Glass to the public in 2014 as they once said, I will be a buyer -- and if it works OK, bye-bye iPhone for me.
    Jan 15 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
    Very good point if they decide not to hold.
    Jan 15 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
    Frankly, I believe MSFT is a bigger, more dangerous worm than either RIMM or NOK. They will struggle with fits and starts, but they have the intent and capacity to build an ecosystem of their own, and the carriers want more competition and less of an Apple stranglehold.

    MSFT has an evolving set of devices directly and indirectly with computers, laptops, tablets and phones. Combine that with their evolving cloud services and cloud based Office -- they can go further and deep than RIMM or NOK
    Jan 15 02:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
    Perhaps you are right. Took that ratio from Yahoo Finance. The point is clear however. Very low payout ratio.
    Jan 15 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
    That is what I heard too, but the Apple website says Jan 24, so I went with what they published
    Jan 15 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Richard Shaw
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