Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
425 looks all the more likely after today. The value argument is there, but first the momentum holders must be washed out. Until they are gone, value attributes will not be able to support the price
Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
At this point, I think you are right that the general 425 area is where the charts show support. We may have to get there, but there are some solid for that being too far as well -- yield being one important one.
At 425, the yield would be nearly 2.5% (substantially above the S&P 500) and into the bottom of the dividend investor range -- while at the same time, many of its other fundamentals being stronger than the S&P 500.
This morning the average Street 1-year consensus is 634. There are 2 Sells, 1 Underperform, 9 Holds, 20 Outperforms, and 24 Buys.
The yield is about 2.3% (10.60/453) -- competitive with the S&P 500, but with a stronger balance sheet
The trailing P/E and EV/EBITDA are in value stock territory
On the chart also, the price is more than two standard deviations from the 63-day average, which is a strongly oversold condition. That doesn't mean the price won't continue to decline, but that the precipitous fall is likely to take a breather. Also the volume has been high relative to averages, suggesting a wash out of the growth/momentum style, and given the yield and price multiples, substitution by more value oriented investors.
Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
After being kicked around quite a bit for saying Apple had gone up too far too fast, and was due for a fall; today's price action ought to cause a few Apple zealots who deny all negative indications with angry retorts to eat a little humble pie.
I agree that they error in the payout ratio, based on a Yahoo Finance data point, should be corrected. My comment acknowledging the error high in the comments may not be sufficient. I have submitted a correction to SA. My thesis is intact, however, and withdrawal of the article in its entirety is not necessary. I expect the corrected text to be up shortly. Thanks for commenting.
Follow-up to earlier reply: You are right -- Yahoo did not annualize the payout. My payout point is weaker, but the yield is still low -- thanks for pointing that out
The Surface Pro may surprise -- it fits the corporate structure so much better than the iPad -- able to run full Office and legacy systems and applications that will not run on OSX
I see Google Glass as a plausible game changer -- wearable computing to eliminate hand held devices is a logical next step. Allegedly, Apple and Microsoft have laboratory work on wearables too, but Google seems to be out front on that. Certainly, if they release Google Glass to the public in 2014 as they once said, I will be a buyer -- and if it works OK, bye-bye iPhone for me.
Frankly, I believe MSFT is a bigger, more dangerous worm than either RIMM or NOK. They will struggle with fits and starts, but they have the intent and capacity to build an ecosystem of their own, and the carriers want more competition and less of an Apple stranglehold.
MSFT has an evolving set of devices directly and indirectly with computers, laptops, tablets and phones. Combine that with their evolving cloud services and cloud based Office -- they can go further and deep than RIMM or NOK
Apple's True Opportunities In 2013 [View article]
Enjoyable read
Thanks
Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
The value argument is there, but first the momentum holders must be washed out. Until they are gone, value attributes will not be able to support the price
Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
At 425, the yield would be nearly 2.5% (substantially above the S&P 500) and into the bottom of the dividend investor range -- while at the same time, many of its other fundamentals being stronger than the S&P 500.
This morning the average Street 1-year consensus is 634. There are 2 Sells, 1 Underperform, 9 Holds, 20 Outperforms, and 24 Buys.
The yield is about 2.3% (10.60/453) -- competitive with the S&P 500, but with a stronger balance sheet
The trailing P/E and EV/EBITDA are in value stock territory
On the chart also, the price is more than two standard deviations from the 63-day average, which is a strongly oversold condition. That doesn't mean the price won't continue to decline, but that the precipitous fall is likely to take a breather. Also the volume has been high relative to averages, suggesting a wash out of the growth/momentum style, and given the yield and price multiples, substitution by more value oriented investors.
Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
MSFT has an evolving set of devices directly and indirectly with computers, laptops, tablets and phones. Combine that with their evolving cloud services and cloud based Office -- they can go further and deep than RIMM or NOK
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]