Richard Shaw's  Instablog

Based on US and world nominal GDP growth rates from 1981 through 2008, we make a case for the likely price of the S&P 500 between 650 and 800.  ... [full article at QVM site]

Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC

Disclosure: We do not own any security mentioned in this article

Here is an interesting 20-year S&P 500 chart.  It shows how the 52-week and 26-week simple moving averages did a pretty good job of calling major multi-year tops and bottoms.  There was certainly a lot of up and down between those turns, but at 30,000 feet those averages were fairly good indicators.  If they have any predictive value, they would say that the current situation is not yet a major turning point. ... [chart at QVM site]

Richard Shaw

Disclosure: we do not own the index at this time

Lots of red today, but only a small dent in the recent rally.  Follow through on the downside would be telling, but one day is not enough to break the momentum -- strong down day though it was.  We'll have a much better picture by the close on Wednesday. Three consecutive down days might be a game changer.

Here is what the daily 1-year charts look like for ETFs representing key asset groups, plus the charts for crude oil and copper.

 April 20, 2009

Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC

Disclosure: We own all of these except USO, DBC, VNQ, VEA, UUP, and EMB in various managed accounts.