Richard Shinnick

Earnings Preview: Crocs

Crocs are kids shoes. Kids love them. My 1 year old son got a pair today, my 3 year old daughter absolutely loves hers. They wash off very easily, parents love them for that reason. Any sales to adults are a bonus. Crocs gets bought and becomes a "line" for Nike.

Ambac's Earnings: You Can't Make This Stuff Up

Shouldn't this crash the market...oh wait, we moved to other stories. Remember when this was the "most important" market story, well now it is on the 13th page just behind the war in Iraq. Meaningless old news, who cares, or so it seems. Sometimes it appears that the MSM picks a story and the world revolves around it until the MSM picks another story for the world to revolve around... what will it be this week? The market went up\down this week because....fill in the blank.

Was That a Short-Covering Rally?

Nah,

The fundamentals have changed. The Fed is on top of it, no inflation, no recession, and everybody is getting a check in a few weeks. Stupid shorts.

20 Winners During a Painful Week

DKS? Why? Curious.

Time to Get Serious About Utilizing Short ETFs

Fin,

Actually I did implement it at that time. I was ignorant though, I thought it would be a short term trade, didn't realize it would become a permanent fixture. I guess I was just too optimistic-stupid me.

Carlyle Deserved to Collapse

Hi Chungst,

You are terrific! Hence forth I will consider you a friend and mentor. If Felix is anything like me, he really enjoys seeing independent dialogue on his articles, it is part of the fun of writing in this terrific venue.

At the end of the day, with Carlyle, it really will be the investors who get hurt. Sure, the billionaires who run the show will lose a little, but often the "investors" are not so well off and are sometimes three steps removed. Pension funds who invest in hedge funds who invest in other hedge funds, etc. It is sort of like the many investors in ETrade who had no idea that the company had so many billions in mortgages and MBS on their books, and still don't, what you see is not necessarily what you get. What I am seeing and hearing is that some of these funds were heavily marketed and the risks were minimized or glossed over. You could market a fund like this Carlysle fund like this "This fund holds Agency MBS which are Implicitly Guaranteed by the Federal Government and our parent company owns 15%." Looks great, implicit guarantee, parent company buys in, how can you lose?

But dig deeper, how was that 15% "ownership" generated? Actual dollars in, or simply accrued fees taken from investors?

Also, in the fine print "we use leverage" but not "we lever this puppy up 32 times, so if there is the slightest hiccup in the mortgage market you will lose big."

I maintain that the guys who ran this fund knew the risks, they will not seriously suffer, it was just a gamble for them and they will just move on to the next one.

BTW "Your actions here speak volumes of your character (if any such exists)".

This sentence does indeed speak volumes, but don't worr about me getting upset, I won't. I still enjoy our discussions and you have taught me quite a bit.

Carlyle Deserved to Collapse

Chungst,

I got it, your job is to criticize and not analyze. Actually, I already knew that. I really enjoy your criticisms, and I would hate to have you ruin them with any analysis.

Cheers to you to!

What Are Brokers' Exposures to Carlyle Capital?

JbMaria,

Long gone, I actually made a miniscule profit on that trade, but I saw the writing on the wall and jumped out in the $4.90 range. Its those pesky mortgages again. In any case, these days the long trades are just hedges and the short trades seem to be the real "investments" as it is hard to hold any long trades with any conviction.

Carlyle Deserved to Collapse

Chungst,

"It looks like some people at Carlyle didn't read their financial history books."

Sure they did, they read that the fastest way to billions is to use OPM and they rolled the dice. It was their investors who did not read the financial history books. The Carlyle group knew the risks precisely.

What Are Brokers' Exposures to Carlyle Capital?

Barry,Mark,

Right you are, I personally know a few people "on the verge" whose home equity lines have not quite run out. These are prime and alt-a types. Also, I think S & P limited its prediction to "supprime" but the market heard what it wanted to hear.

What a mess.

Latest Bank Headache: Home Equity Loans

Barry,

You are really bumming us out here. We need more denial not more reality. We absolutely have to get on the same page, the consumer exists to spend, that is what HELOC's are for! That is what credit cards are for! In tough times we can't under any circumstances stop spending! If the consumer can't borrow then it is the government's job to borrow for them-and mail them checks to keep spending! The fed can take these HELOC's on their balance sheet! There is absolutely no problem here whatsoever. The market is up 500 points in 2 days, what is your problem Barry! Get with the program! Your one of those "save and invest" guys aren't you?

Earnings Preview: Dick's Sporting Goods

Can't think of another store that is more "discretionary" thank Dicks. Short candidate? Puts anyone?

Read This Before Buying E*Trade

daffy,

no problem, a lot of people don't get my sense of humor at any time during the day...but you are right on the CFC thing, I feel the same way, maybe a lot of government pressure on BAC to complete the deal..who knows.

Read This Before Buying E*Trade

daffy,

yes...I have heard of a Tsunami, that was the point of my joke-the financials as a group are dangerous. In fact, I have been so short the financials that to a degree BAC and ETFC have been my "hedges" on my short positions. Pure mortgage plays are toxic, but with BAC and ETFC you have companies that are beaten down due to their exposure but have a lot more than mortgage exposure going for them (but I am hoping BAC sees the light and punts on CFC).

Flow of Funds Report: Maybe Bernanke Is Onto Something

jlounsbury59,

Actually, it IS tounge and cheek and it is still scary because, althought Tim if being facetious, Washington may not be. In fact, Washington called yesterday, they are mailing out checks to help, didn't you get a call? Oh yeah, I forgot, they are spending $47 million to mail you a letter about it. Isn't it really all the same thing?