Richard Shinnick

Sears Holdings' True Value

Sorry, meant to add the numbers. Here is the book values: SHLD 1.2, M 1.0, Tgt 2.6, JCP 1.9, so Sears Holding looks cheap. Macy's looks like a screaming deal?

Sears Holdings' True Value

Jud,

Book value per share is a problem I think (I think that is what you mean) as the real estate values are screwed up from what I understand (depreciation, and a basis that could have been carried forward for years). How about simple forward PE: (SHLD 15.2, M 8.2, Tgt 13.0, JCP 7.9). If you have any input on why book is an ok metric, let me know. A lot of the Lampert premium has come out of Sears Holding though.

Sears Holdings' True Value

Thank you very much for the compliment. I collaborated with my 3-year old on this one. She really wants the miniature Ducati motorcycle that they sell at Sears.

Anyway, the point that I was trying to make with Sears is that it really all just hinges on one guy. More than any other company that you might look at-even Bershire Hathaway.

Anyway, thank you again for the constructive criticism, please post a link to something that you have written so that I can have something to shoot for.

BofA Deal May Not Rescue Countrywide Shareholders

Good price? Bad price? I really don't know. Once again, a good deal for CFC, but is this a good deal for BoA? Is BoA just saving face on its own $2 billion investment that has been marked down $1.5 billion already? Will the deal fall apart? What does this do to BoA credit rating? I am taking a cue from Warren Buffet here, if you don't understand it, don't invest in it. I am out of BofA (with a small loss) until I get a handle on this deal which has been sorely lacking in details.

BofA Deal May Not Rescue Countrywide Shareholders

As I submitted this article yesterday, I have to admit that I was surprised that this deal happened, but not at all surprised that it priced below CFC share price at close yesterday. Here is the problem though, as usual the press reports this deal as "done" it is not "done" and a lot can happen between now and then. I live smack in the middle of CFC country (Thousand Oaks, California) and can't help but wonder how this will be good for "CFC employees" as Angelo promises? Angelo makes a lot of promises and whatever else this deal is he just saved face big time!

Sears Holding's Lampert Continues Great Brand Lineup

I recently checked out a couple of Sears specifically to see how things wer going, went to one tonight with my daughter (3 year old). The "urban" Sears had Kmart like Women's clothes, a spectacular appliance and tool section (expected that) and some ok kids clothes. The suburban Sears had great kids clothes, the women's clothes were not so low end and had a pretty good men's section. In fact, in both stores, employees were very helpful and very plentiful, the store looked clean which surprised me. I even saw a cardboard box that said "please reuse to save expenses" and a message came on telling all employees to tidy up and clean restrooms.

I was really impressed with the merchandise and the store overall and the thing that made the whole experience the most pleasant in both cases:

Besides the dozens of helpful employees in every corner, I WAS THE ONLY ONE THERE. To be fair, they tell me that weekends are busier.

Great merchandise + no customers = inventory issues + no profit

Countrywide Takeover By BoA Would Make Sense

Sorry for the doube post, but I read your article again and had two more questions:

1. BAC gets CFC at a "discount" to what? CFC "true" value, "book" value, what metric is that discount calculated against?

2. Wouldn't BAC get a big chunk of market share anyway if CFC failed?

Countrywide Takeover By BoA Would Make Sense

With respect, it makes sense for BAC to buy CFC because BAC "can sustain any last losses" and because CFC has "liquidity" issues. Huh?

I don't want to buy a company because it is going bankrupt and I can sustain the losses, I want to buy a company because I can make money. How exactly does this benefit BAC? That it benefits CFC is a given.

Buy Gold on Emotion, Not Fundamentals!

GaryD, I don't disagree. In fact, you are dead on. The Fed\Congress are in a box of their own making. My point-beyond the sarcasm-is that gold as an investment class is not well-known. Most retail investors simply do not own gold but when it hits $1,000 it will be front page news and it will come on the radar-and now, as opposed to the 80's it is a lot easier to invest in with these etfs, etc.

Personally, I also prefer picking stocks and analyzing companies..but here we are both owning gold..sign of the times.

How Far Might Housing Prices Fall?

Mas,

I think JBD is right about including inflation because you are discounting FUTURE cash flows to arrive at PRESENT value. Factoring inflation in to the discount model gives you the proper price of the asset. If you do not factor in inflation, the PRESENT value of the asset will not include FUTURE inflation.

I agree that you need to factor in maint and taxes (just pull them from the rent cash flows).

Please tell me if I am missing something.

How Far Might Housing Prices Fall?

JBD

Are you serious? You mean I don't just compare the neg-am payment to the rent I can charge and then calculate that the property will go up by 20% per year forever? The mortgage guy said I could refinance and pull out a Ferrari next year!!!

Financial calculator? Net present value? Tax benefit (I don't pay no stinking taxes)?

I just don't get you man!

2005 lives forever!!!!!!

How Far Might Housing Prices Fall?

Price to rent ratio makes sense because real people (as opposed to analysts and CDO engineers) make decisons based on such things. I remember hearing somewhere that in a given area, when the average family could afford the average house with 1/3 of their income (as opposed to their "stated" income) that prices were basically in equillibrium.

Prices falling to where the average family is able to afford the average home is, of course, to be avoided at all costs.

E.W. Scripps Company: A Raging Short?

My wife is addicted. My neighbor's wife is addicted. My mother-in-law is addicted. My sister is addicted. And..I am pretty sure Oprah is addicted. It is a female thing so consider yourself unqualified to write on this topic.