Seeking Alpha

Richard Zeits

 
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PRO Top Ideas
Top Ideas are high-conviction long or short ideas focused on market mispricings with asymmetric risk/reward profiles.
  • EQT Corporation: The Midstream Advantage
     • Thu, Aug. 28 EQT 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis, EQT’s upstream business is one of the best values in the Marcellus/Utica E&P peer group.
    • The company is developing takeaway solutions in the Marcellus that may support production growth to over 3 Bcf/d by 2018.
    • The stock has a catalyst in the form of a potential monetization of the General Partner interest in the MLP.
    • The recently acquired Midland acreage has the potential to evolve into a second core operating area.
    • Despite the natural gas pricing headwinds in the Marcellus/Utica area, the stock's risk/reward profile appears skewed very favorably to the upside.
  • Antero Resources: Rich Valuation Represents A Risk
       • Sat, Jul. 26 AR 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Antero’s strong stock performance has resulted in trading multiples that are among the highest among large-capitalization E&P stocks and among its Marcellus and Utica peers.
    • While the company's production growth guidance is impressive, it is to some degree a result of significant outspending of internal cash flow and does not represent an organic growth rate.
    • The risk to natural gas price realizations is elevated and may contribute to the stock's price correction.
  • Halcón Resources: Success In The TMS Redefines Upside Potential
       • Thu, Jun. 26 HK 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent drilling results in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale, both by Halcón and other operators, indicate that the play’s ultimate success is increasingly probable.
    • A week ago, Halcón received an important endorsement of its TMS asset from Apollo Global Management in the form of the first tranche of a $400 million mezzanine financing.
    • Given the scale and quality of Halcón’s position in the TMS, the asset may prove defining for the stock’s valuation.
    • Factoring in the potential impact from the TMS, the stock’s risk/reward profile appears favorable.
  • Sanchez Energy: From 'Asset-Poor' To 'Asset-Rich'
       • Tue, Jun. 10 SN 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Sanchez emerged as the winning bidder on Shell's Eagle Ford assets. The purchase price is highly favorable to Sanchez.
    • In an optimistic scenario, the transaction could add over $1 billion to the stock’s intrinsic value.
    • From a strategic perspective, the acquisition fully resolves the company’s drilling inventory challenge.
    • Only a small portion of the potential upside is reflected in the post-announcement price move.
  • Kodiak Oil & Gas: A New Paradigm - A Moderate-Risk Development 'Story'
       • Tue, Apr. 15 KOG 26 Comments

    Summary

    • The article provides illustrative valuation analysis of Kodiak’s drilling inventory, including risks and upsides.
    • The stock is priced very reasonably relative to its value potential.
    • The transition into full development mode and substantially reduced operating risk should help to close the gap between the stock price and the underlying NAV.
  • SandRidge Energy: Disappointing Asset Sale Reinforces Valuation Concerns
       • Fri, Jan. 10 SD 83 Comments
  • Bill Barrett: The Niobrara And Uinta Upside
       • Tue, Jan. 7 BBG 13 Comments
  • Cabot Oil And Gas: 50% Growth And Free Cash Flow Shows The Stock's High Multiple Is Warranted
       • Dec. 24, 2013 COG 36 Comments
  • Comstock Resources: In Search Of New Growth
       • Dec. 18, 2013 CRK 4 Comments
  • Penn Virginia: Outlook Remains Strong Despite Recent Outperformance
       • Dec. 3, 2013 PVA 4 Comments
  • EXCO Resources: Fundamentals Remain Weak, Despite Leadership Change
       • Nov. 26, 2013 XCO 18 Comments
  • Carrizo Oil & Gas: Oil-Focused Portfolio With Assets In All The Right Places
       • Nov. 22, 2013 CRZO 13 Comments
  • SM Energy: Just Getting Started
       • Nov. 5, 2013 SM 11 Comments
  • Goodrich Petroleum: Transformation Underway
       • Oct. 22, 2013 GDP 6 Comments
  • Clayton Williams: Leveraged To Momentum In 2 Top Oil Plays
       • Oct. 22, 2013 CWEI 31 Comments
  • Forest Oil: Disappointing Asset Sale Raises Valuation Concerns
       • Oct. 8, 2013 FST 11 Comments
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust I: Risk Of Downward Re-Pricing
       • Jul. 6, 2013 SDT 5 Comments
  • Penn Virginia: Strong Value Upside Driven By Quality Of Eagle Ford Assets
       • Jun. 19, 2013 PVA 18 Comments
  • QEP Resources: Bakken 'Monster' Wells Validate Strong Upside Potential
       • Jun. 6, 2013 QEP 19 Comments