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Richard Zeits  

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  • U.S. Shale Oil: A Grand Parade Of Cost Improvements [View article]
    dhdhoora,

    Thank you for taking the time to read. I have not really followed Lonestar, but John Pinkerton is a well know name, good for them.
    Apr 23, 2015. 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil: A Grand Parade Of Cost Improvements [View article]
    Curious O&G Investor,

    Thank you for reading. I am working on a more detailed discussion on the topic, coming soon.
    Apr 23, 2015. 02:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC, Russia, U.S. Shales - A Global Battle For Oil Market Share [View article]
    Rawenergy, Wisdom -

    Another point - costs are declining. Just posted a note that has a few examples:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 23, 2015. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC, Russia, U.S. Shales - A Global Battle For Oil Market Share [View article]
    Wisdom's Reward,

    I agree, EIA monthlies are not a bad source, but I would give it another month or two to see clearly what's going on.

    I was also in the camp modeling a plateau in May-June, but when rig utilization data started rolling in, I felt that all bets were off. The peak or plateau seems to be due a little earlier. Having said that, models are always guesses due to assumptions wheres EIA has something akin to a measurement, difficult to beat that.
    Apr 23, 2015. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC, Russia, U.S. Shales - A Global Battle For Oil Market Share [View article]
    Rawnenergy,

    Another consideration, I would not separate the DUC well inventory from rig utilization. If the inventory becomes too high, the rig utilization is the balancing item.
    Apr 23, 2015. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC, Russia, U.S. Shales - A Global Battle For Oil Market Share [View article]
    Rawenergy, Wisdom's Reward,

    Nabors quoted a third party report saying 4k well WOC.

    I should note though that there is always a minimum normal backlog. In the past few years, the backlog normalized from elevated levels as gathering and processing infrastructure caught up.

    So the backlog may be a factor in suppressing WTI backwardation from going too wide, but it is probably not significant enough to have any influence on global oil prices. When I do my simpleton's math, let's assume average EUR per well of 300,000-500,000 barrels and that 1,000 wells represent above-normal inventory that will come online immediately once a trigger oil price threshold is passed. If every well contributes 400 b/d in the first year, we are talking a production contribution of 400,000 b/d. It's within the measurement error in the context of global supply.
    Apr 23, 2015. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Triangle Petroleum: Strong Quarter, Difficult Outlook [View article]
    g8trgr8t,

    I am sorry - I misunderstood you, I meant ~1,000 wells in the Bakken. For the U.S. total 3,000 wells sound reasonable. I saw an estimate of 4,000 well. I should note though that there will always be a "normal" inventory of wells waiting on completion, particularly in pad drilling mode.

    I will chick on the ND regulation, it is interesting and, I agree, important. Thank you for bringing it up.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Triangle Petroleum: Strong Quarter, Difficult Outlook [View article]
    g8trgr8t,

    I don't think there is a 12-month requirement to complete. Also, I think the number of wells WOC is ~1,000. I agree the PP fleet grew throughout the year, but personally I expect the EBITDA margin to decline close to zero for commodity PP this year.

    I also agree that the midstream business is attractive, but the size of their investment is not that huge. Caliber is the smallest of their three key assets.
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC, Russia, U.S. Shales - A Global Battle For Oil Market Share [View article]
    Fishfryer,

    May I ask, who is "we?" I, personally, do not share your views, particularly the ones like "we should roll in to the Middle East and suck them dry" or "topple Russia." Sorry to say but this sounds provocative for the purpose of being provocative. By the way, I have noticed that your comments lead to links to "Peak Oil" or "Peak Natural Gas" sites.
    Apr 22, 2015. 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC, Russia, U.S. Shales - A Global Battle For Oil Market Share [View article]
    gggl,

    I would not expect the current oil price to have much impact on regimes. There are places where regimes exist for decades, despite the nation's abject poverty. How about North Korea.
    Apr 22, 2015. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC, Russia, U.S. Shales - A Global Battle For Oil Market Share [View article]
    Hi Ryan,

    Thank you for reading. With regard to wealth transfer, I would say in a normal world it should be more of an exchange that creates wealth for everybody - someone sells a barrel, someone sells an iPad. Also, in a normal world, being hostile should be considered not nice and have some cost.
    Apr 22, 2015. 06:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Triangle Petroleum: Strong Quarter, Difficult Outlook [View article]
    g8trgr8t,

    I would use a multiple of EBITDA rather than revenue. The problem, however, is that EBITDA for RockPile will be very different for the upcycle (it was $95 million, I believe, in 2014 for RockPile) and for the downcycle.

    I would also look at how much the company has invested in the assets to date. You may be surprised that the number is not that huge. On the call, the conversation was that equipment is going for cents on a dollar. I think it may be an exaggeration, but this is a commoditized business.

    Caliber is a different story. It's revenue is stable and less cycle-dependent.
    Apr 21, 2015. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcón Resources: April Eagle Ford Update [View article]
    Vibrosig,

    Agreed, that is a very instructive type of analysis. Actually, something like that will be in my newsletter next week.
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Triangle Petroleum: Strong Quarter, Difficult Outlook [View article]
    Pablomike,

    I agree, it's a bit low. I would say there may be several factors. First, this is a EUR estimate used for reserve booking. It is a conservative metric by its nature. While some companies use the same type curve for their reserves and for investor presentations, some others show a more optimistic type curve to investors that what they book.

    Triangle commented that their Three Forks PUDs are booked conservatively.

    Finally, this is a booking for the entire PUD inventory, across all areas where wells have been drilled and that are included in the 5-year plan. So there is obviously significant variance by area.

    Ultimately, this is why I wish that Triangle provided an open and detailed account of their well results by area, instead of directing investors to the state data base.
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC, Russia, U.S. Shales - A Global Battle For Oil Market Share [View article]
    Jerrydd,

    Power generation has been deregulated in many areas many years ago. So why is it that those areas still rely on gas and coal for power, despite lavish subsidies to green power? I think it may be because Mr. Market votes for gas and coal every day.

    Once there is an economically viable alternative to nat gas and coal, I am sure the world will transition to those better sources, But I am not sure that solar can step into the big shoes of natural gas today, or can it?
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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