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Richard Zeits  

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  • Now Is The Time To Double The Strategic Petroleum Reserve [View article]
    Fliper2058,

    Interesting point. One could also argue, commodities provide inflation protection.
    Jun 9, 2015. 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Double The Strategic Petroleum Reserve [View article]
    David,

    Drawback: immediate budget outlay. Benefits: reduce oil prices in the long run; assist defense goals (i.e., reduce defense budget); sleep better (this is akin to medical insurance - even if nothing happens, it is nice to have). Finally, it feels good to be in control of your own destiny.
    Jun 9, 2015. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Double The Strategic Petroleum Reserve [View article]
    Karchlg,

    There are probably no reasons why other countries should keep their SPR oil in the U.S. Many countries have SPRs and could simply expand their facilities and reserves.
    Jun 9, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Double The Strategic Petroleum Reserve [View article]
    Ephud,
    My apologies. A fix is on its way. Thank you for pointing out.
    Best regards,
    Richard
    Jun 9, 2015. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcón Resources: Taking Stock In The Eagle Ford [View article]
    JackSiemasz,

    Please note that the data in the article are actual oil volumes (not Boe) and are not normalized for off-line time.

    200 MBoe in year one would be a very strong result. One needs to see how the tails perform, but 200 MBoe in year one would appear to imply an EUR much higher than 450 MBoe.
    Jun 9, 2015. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Independence: You May Have Missed The News - It Has Already Happened [View article]
    Aricool,

    You are making an interesting point. The problem, however, is that one needs a much bigger SPR for it to be a viable counter-threat. Shale oil is an SPR of a sort (assuming one has enough equipment and qualified engineers and workers standing by).

    By the way, the price of maintaining a large SPR may be lower than the related benefits to the defense budget.
    Jun 9, 2015. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcón Resources: Taking Stock In The Eagle Ford [View article]
    lol wut,

    I am not sure I would necessarily agree - the decline appears to be hot shale-like (as opposed to, for example, some fractured carbonates or "dead oil" shales where tail production collapses). Personally, I would need to see one more year of production history, particularly from more recent wells. It is also interesting to see how wells perform depending on their location in various regimes.

    It would be interesting to hear your more detailed observations on the issue. It is indeed an important one.
    Jun 8, 2015. 05:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Independence: You May Have Missed The News - It Has Already Happened [View article]
    GGGL,

    In my opinion, there is absolutely no merit in expecting a negative impact from lower oil prices on the U.S. economy, let alone a recession.

    Canada is obviously more impacted. That being said, Canada is also a very diversified and strong economy overall.

    The greatest impact is on oil-exporting economies with weak balance sheets. Russia, Venezuela, Iran are some of the examples.
    Jun 8, 2015. 04:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Independence: You May Have Missed The News - It Has Already Happened [View article]
    Robert,

    The point I was trying to make that the issue should be taken in a broader context of the U.S. and global economic security. If U.S. oil supply is secure does not mean that the world overall is fully energy-secure.
    Jun 8, 2015. 04:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Independence: You May Have Missed The News - It Has Already Happened [View article]
    Scooter-Pop,

    M&A in the Midstream sectors has been very active. Assets are being constantly dropped down.

    In the E&P sector, the bid-ask spread is wide. Few sellers would be willing to sell at a $60-$65 price deck.
    Jun 8, 2015. 04:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Independence: You May Have Missed The News - It Has Already Happened [View article]
    Scooter-Pop,

    I think the Flu has already propagated, to some degree, judging by some MLP's performance.

    Personally, i do not expect a significant decline in U.S. + Canada oil production this year. However, the lack of the "customary" 1+ million barrels per day increment between year-end 2014 and year-end 2015 should be a strong headwind as it may cause some investors to re-think their assumptions regarding the Midstream sector's sustainable pace of growth.
    Jun 8, 2015. 12:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Is Judgment Day In Crude Oil's Financial Cold War [View article]
    Grisly_atoms,

    Well, then the question is to the author (and to gs, citi, etc., if that is what they indeed said, which I hope they did not).

    The answer was in your question, the way I see it. Let's say, six months at 2 mmb/d of surplus -- would equate to extra 360 million barrels in storage. Let's assume that this has already happened. The global storage must be full by now, right? Another six months -- every tanker would be parked as floating storage. Does that make sense? Any empirical confirmation? Or am I missing something?
    Jun 4, 2015. 03:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Is Judgment Day In Crude Oil's Financial Cold War [View article]
    TF17,

    Let's do the math together.

    Let's assume the figure is accurate and all storage is marketable (which is would be a stretch - storage must be logistically connected). What is the normal utilization and what is the current utilization? Let's say, for illustration purposes, 40% and 70%. Let's say there is 1 Bn barrels of storage worldwide. So the overstock would be 300 million barrels relative. If the build up occurred over a 10-month period, the oversupply has been 1 MMb/d on average.

    Most importantly, I am not seeing oversupply currently. In fact, if anything, I am seeing a moderate under-supply currently, based on a number of indicators.

    So where did the 2 mm b/d figure come from? Major oil think tanks do not show 2 mm b/d either.
    Jun 4, 2015. 03:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Is Judgment Day In Crude Oil's Financial Cold War [View article]
    Grisly_atoms,

    Who said there is excess supply of 2mmb/d?
    Jun 4, 2015. 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Is Judgment Day In Crude Oil's Financial Cold War [View article]
    Pablomike,

    Actually, in many cases, you can. However, there is no reason to. Because cash revenues are higher than cash costs by a huge margin.
    Jun 4, 2015. 01:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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