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  • U.S. Shales - 'Fraclog' And 'Refracs' Are The Overused Terms Of This Earnings Season [View article]
    Craig,

    Very good point. In any event, the product has received excellent visibility, pilots have been initiated, R&D is moving forward. And that's a good thing for the industry.
    May 18, 2015. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shales - 'Fraclog' And 'Refracs' Are The Overused Terms Of This Earnings Season [View article]
    Sounds like... an over-used buzzword of this earnings season?
    May 18, 2015. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Topping Units: A Trend In The U.S. Refining? [View article]
    TOT,

    Terrific comment, thank you.

    The expansion speculation was in the industry press somewhere. I could not find the original piece that I saw, but I found this one:

    http://reut.rs/1FlK1lz
    May 17, 2015. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Debt-For-Equity Swaps Are A Trader's Paradise [View article]
    Larry700,

    I actually think that you and I are on the same side of the argument. All I did, I took the price of the bond and divided it by the number of shares issued, getting the implied exchange price per share (one could also look at it from a different angle - as premium paid relative to the most recent price of the bond).

    I totally agree with you, it does not matter what the originally paid price was.
    May 16, 2015. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Debt-For-Equity Swaps Are A Trader's Paradise [View article]
    I am currently reviewing the Trusts' hedging settlements timing - there appears to be a time lag that may extend hedging revenue by one quarter. I will post an update when ready.
    May 16, 2015. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Debt-For-Equity Swaps Are A Trader's Paradise [View article]
    Just posted a follow up on the ratings impact:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 16, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks And Leverage: What Are Potential Implications Of Debt-For-Equity Swaps? [View article]
    Fliper,

    Thank you for the chart. In fact, the price of oil and general market sentiment is another set of factors that may obscure the comparisons. I guess my point was that most recently the bonds moved quite a bit. Hard to tell how much of it is due to the improved macros and how much is due to the bid from swaps.
    May 16, 2015. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Topping Units: A Trend In The U.S. Refining? [View article]
    Hi TOT,

    Thank you for the insight, very helpful.

    I also heard that Exxon is considering a major heavy-sour expansion (I should post a note at some point).
    May 16, 2015. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carrizo Oil & Gas: Solid Execution, Growing Asset Base [View article]
    Raw Energy,

    It is interesting to compare repositioning outcomes by several companies.

    Forest Oil tried to reposition itself, first to adapt its business model to the disruption by natural gas shales and then by oil shales.

    CHK repositioned from its focus on gas shales to more focus on oil shales.

    PVA repositioned from focus on gas to focus on the Eagle Ford.

    Etc. Etc. It's a long list of big successes, not so big successes, and even occasional failures.

    CRZO gave up its entire Barnett business in the process, but I am impressed with what they managed to accomplish elsewhere.
    May 16, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Big Oil? [View article]
    Joseph,

    I read your article carefully but am not sure I could find a clear rationale behind your investment thesis.

    You wrote: "If the market is flat, they'll likely stay roughly where they are (though a serious elevator shaft drop in oil prices would force us to remind ourselves daily that these are long-term investments)."

    Is it possible to assert that "they'll likely stay roughly where they are" without implicitly taking a view that oil prices will go materially higher?

    All the majors you mentioned have strong balance sheets, but are they really as immune as you seem to imply, assuming the oil prices stays where they are as well?

    I am not advocating one way or another, but let's look at the current strip pricing (which is of course just one of many scenarios) - does not look great for the majors. if the strip pricing materialized, the majors would continue to suffer, alongside the rest of the industry. Q1 results for the majors were pretty awful.

    So can one really rule out the scenario that the oil majors will in fact underperform the market?
    May 16, 2015. 08:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Debt-For-Equity Swaps Are A Trader's Paradise [View article]
    Fliper2058,

    You are right - the size of an individual swap under this format may not be in the company's control. I guess what I personally found a little disappointing is that HK was able to swap ~5x the amount (in several transactions), with a similar magnitude of stock price decline.

    Ford is an interesting case study, in fact. If I recall correctly, back in 2009, there seemed to be quite a bit of surprise among skeptics about how well Ford's exchange offer was actually received.
    May 16, 2015. 06:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Debt-For-Equity Swaps Are A Trader's Paradise [View article]
    MarionPolk2000,

    The way I personally would do the analysis, I would look at how much value is available and who has the claim on that value.
    May 15, 2015. 10:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Debt-For-Equity Swaps Are A Trader's Paradise [View article]
    Larry700,

    Your wrote: "The SD bonds are no longer listed by Schwab as they have now been rated at C."

    SandRidge notes are not rated 'C' by the S&P - the senior unsecureds are still rated 'CCC.' There is a difference. They may end up rated "SD" but let's not misrepresent the facts about the credit rating (or about what is stated in the article, even if it is a poor one :) ).

    May 15, 2015. 09:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Debt-For-Equity Swaps Are A Trader's Paradise [View article]
    Given that this note was submitted before the market's open, a quick follow-up regarding today's negative market reaction (the stock traded down 10%+ during the session) may be in order.

    The most likely explanation to the stock's weakness is the recognition that the exchange - which is meant to be a measure of last resort - does not move the needle, given the $3.3+ billion of debt on balance sheet and the expected continued cash burn.

    The natural question is: why did SandRidge pursue such a small transaction?

    Given the almost inevitable stock price impact (as the market would anticipate the stock to come back on the market, creating pressure), pursuing a sequence of small swaps would seem to make no sense at all, versus doing the entire amount in one go.

    The potential concern is that the outcome demonstrates the size limitation of this specific strategy.
    May 14, 2015. 04:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rice Energy: Dry Utica - From Optimism To Confidence [View article]
    Hi Carl,

    I don't know if they are using sliding sleeves or plug-n-perf. Will need to look into it.
    May 14, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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