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  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    Ellaruth,

    Thank you for taking the time to read. Your kind word is already ample reward (you can always add me to your "follow" list as "author real-time alerts" :) ).
    Mar 22, 2015. 11:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    Always dubious,

    If I may add my 2 cents - if all exports are banned, the price at the pump would go up and will stay elevated until additional refining capacity is built. Exports are helpful as they allow to optimize global refinery runs using the capacity that is already installed.
    Mar 22, 2015. 11:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    David,

    T-shirts, PCs and other things add up to a manufacturing (and technological) base of significant size that, unfortunately, has migrated elsewhere. One can debate whether it's for better or for worse, but if too many t-shirt factories go off-shore, one may end up with a huge national debt and weak currency.

    The U.S. is blessed - to some degree, thanks to the entrepreneurial tradition of the oily and gassy states - to have a terrific manufacturing base in oil & gas, oil services and petrochemicals. A smart policy is needed to keep it that way.
    Mar 22, 2015. 11:25 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    bbob68 and manitocat1,

    Agreed. However, to play devil's advocate, for energy security to be achieved, the U.S. Upstream sector must produce enough (and, arguably, some more, to be able to help allies in Europe and some other places where there is little left to extract). If the discount explodes again to $25 per barrel, we may see domestic production decline. Moreover, extractors may elect to plan conservatively, given the risk. It's a delicate balance.
    Mar 22, 2015. 11:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    Founder,

    In fact, a lot of oil that has filled SPR facilities on the Gulf Coast is the U.S. federal royalty oil from GOM offshore leases. In a way, a waterborne grade, akin to Brent.
    Mar 22, 2015. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    Philip,

    "...the burden of proof is on those who advocate an export ban."

    Well, it certainly was 40 years ago. What were they thinking?

    Interesting point regarding a phase out, makes sense as a concept. I would argue, however, that there still remains the issue of windfall value redistribution that needs to be addressed.
    Mar 22, 2015. 09:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    Riverrat,

    "Low cost" is the key word. Are all the Trillions economically competitive?
    Mar 22, 2015. 09:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    David de los Angeles,

    One can make a mile-long list of things that the U.S. consumes much more than it produces domestically (including t-shirts, sneakers, toys, PCs, and you can continue the list). But very few of those are subject to export ban. Logic?
    Mar 22, 2015. 09:23 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    Option Calling,

    Thank you for bringing up EPD in this context. A highly relevant stock. I hope to cover in one of my subsequent notes.
    Mar 22, 2015. 08:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    Aricool,

    Terrific points, thank you.
    Mar 22, 2015. 08:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas Stocks - That Evasive Inflection Point [View article]
    Hi Alexander,

    A fair observation. I have about 300 publicly traded Energy stocks on my screen, which I am sure is far from being exhaustive. The sample in the article includes just 125 of those. So I am sure I have missed some relevant ones.

    Initially, the purpose of this list was to provide a simple tool that would give a quick, intuitive idea of the magnitude of this correction. So I did not try to make the list comprehensive. It is probably time to expand it. Will try in my next update.
    Mar 21, 2015. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas Stocks - That Evasive Inflection Point [View article]
    Chazsf,

    Thank you for pointing this out, terrific catch. I just checked the model and indeed one cell (dividend input link for Suncor) was corrupted. I submitted the change.
    Thank you again.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas Stocks - That Evasive Inflection Point [View article]
    Mykie,

    This is a complex issue. I will try to bring for discussion some aspects in my next notes.
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas Stocks - That Evasive Inflection Point [View article]
    Mykie,

    That is correct, rig count and production have a time lag. Future production is obviously being lost but current production is still growing.
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas Stocks - That Evasive Inflection Point [View article]
    Waxwing,

    A repeal of the ban may have a modest positive effect on North American prices, mostly in the form of a narrower WTI/Brent differential. Free exports would bring up the price that US producers receive for their growing stream of light sweet grades that are currently landlocked.

    On the other hand, the repeal cannot address (and one might argue, aggravates) the problem of global oversupply. For that bigger issue to be resolved, there are two polar scenarios: (1) prices fall lower quickly and balance is restored, quickly, via shut-ins, or (2) prices stay a somewhat higher but still depressed levels for longer - new investment will decline and that way reduce future supply.
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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