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Richard Zeits  

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  • Is U.S. Shale Oil Production Already Declining? [View article]
    Rawenergy,

    I think what you are suggesting is already happening. The massive reduction in capital budgets has been impressive in the past three months (although th sluggish wait-and-see posture during the entire Q4 2014 seemed like will power paralized). This is a huge industry. Bringing the entire supply chain to a halt is quite a task and quite a pain.
    Apr 1, 2015. 05:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is U.S. Shale Oil Production Already Declining? [View article]
    GGG,

    I agree on Iran negotiations - the next 48 hours will be interesting.

    I would argue, however, that the deal may be viewed as a potential risk factor by producers. Iran certainly has a resource base to ramp up production significantly. It may add even more barrels to the already oversupplied market while putting upward pressure on oil service pricing in the region.
    Apr 1, 2015. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is U.S. Shale Oil Production Already Declining? [View article]
    Firsttracks,

    Cold winter could be a driver, but I am not convinced this is really the case this year. Sharply reduced budgets are, on the other hand, in my opinion.

    The carry over of capital and supply chain commitments from last year will certainly help initially, but then a decline will be difficult to avoid.

    Monitoring via production guidance by individual companies and via aggregate reporting by states is probably the easiest way of figuring out if production is growing or declining. Watching well inventories appears too labor intensive and less real time/precise.
    Apr 1, 2015. 05:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is U.S. Shale Oil Production Already Declining? [View article]
    GGG, If everyone wants peace, why isn't there a peace deal?
    Apr 1, 2015. 04:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is U.S. Shale Oil Production Already Declining? [View article]
    GGG,

    I would think that structurally, more or less, U.S. Gas Price = Brent Price + Brent Crack Spread + a little bit to bring gas to the U.S. shore?

    So I think oil price still matters quite a bit.
    Apr 1, 2015. 04:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: Weathering The Storm [View article]
    Hi Adam,

    Certainly. But I will have to write them up at a later point, not at my desk this weekend.
    Mar 28, 2015. 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Richard Zeits Positions For 2015: A Bull Case For North American Natural Gas [View article]
    Steve,

    Thank you for the thought. The long-term strip is indeed very different from where it stood just a year ago. Amazing how much the sentiment has changed. I am currently very focused on enhancing my analytical applications for oil, but nat gas is next on my agenda. I will certainly follow up with my best thoughts on natural gas, hopefully soon and hopefully in a much more systemic fashion than before.
    Mar 28, 2015. 01:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    Please do not ban the export of Treasury bonds!
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: Weathering The Storm [View article]
    RG3015,

    Thank you for excellent questions. It is difficult for me to answer in a brief comment, an update article would probably be more suitable. EXCO is in my queue, hopefully soon.
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    David, I am just curious about your rationale - if there is a glut, what is your reason for a ban on trade?
    Mar 23, 2015. 01:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    David, Brent is just a quoted benchmark. In reality, it's a small-volume crude.
    Mar 23, 2015. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    Kruk,

    Would it make sense to develop both extracting and processing capacity on the U.S. soil? I am not siding with any specific answer or view point - a topic for another article - but an argument is often made that due to extensive environmental, safety, labor, etc. requirements, U.S. processing industries would not have a chance competing with overseas. Therefore, since the society is asking for all those nice things, that same society should be prepared to pay the price and effectively subsidize the processing industries for the extra cost. Currently that subsidy comes in the form of the export ban.
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:43 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    Levis,

    These are very valid observations. I guess the market does not trust the refining industry to add distillation capacity quickly enough?
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    Happyshorter,

    I have not forgotten about the Canadian oils. A big topic. Will try to cover in the following notes.
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    David, judging by your argument, I sense you have changed camp and now are supporting the repeal of the ban?
    Mar 23, 2015. 12:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,718 Comments
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