Comments on Riga's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/riga/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/93342-allied-irish-banks-with-9-dividend-this-bank-could-thrive?source=feed#comment-342940 342940 Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:31:35 -0500
Looking at some of the techinicals, we can see the RSI and %R showing a massive overselling of the stock, and shorting has decreased significantly in the past month.

Anglo could bring all this positive news to a halt if they go under, but I see a slow recovery from them as well. Call me an optimist, but I think you should see the stock price of AIB double by the end of 09]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-306718 306718 Sat, 15 Nov 2008 12:11:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93342-allied-irish-banks-with-9-dividend-this-bank-could-thrive?source=feed#comment-284048 284048 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 17:50:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-270616 270616 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 14:04:56 -0400
btw SOMERVILLE..i live in somerville MA on prospect hill]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-269574 269574 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 11:01:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-269303 269303 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 01:51:49 -0400 The community has been rushing over to open their accounts with WFC this past month! (esp from WAMU) Add it up, there will be short term issues obviously, But definitely a hold on this stock and maybe even a buy..very soon.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-268074 268074 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 23:29:49 -0400 The pessimists worry about dropping home values. There are really only three reasons home values matter -- if you want to sell your home or you want to borrow against it or you have an ARM and want to refinance to a fixed. Wells did not do a lot of ARMs -- the average length of a mortgage is about 12 years --most people have no reason to sell their homes right away and will just ride out this cycle. Wells also has a presence in markets where values are not dropping like they are in California --so they still have the ability to do Home Equity lending in other areas of the country (check out Texas).
Will they have more write-offs --of course --but they are no where near as bad off as some of the pessimists on this board indicate. If you think they are fooling people by hiding bad loans -- then they have a lot of people fooled -- they were just listed by an independent organization as one of the 10 safest banks in the world --the only American bank on the list -- Congress and the Fed have looked to Wells to determine how they avoided the mess other institutions are in -- they still have their Triple A rating --the only American Bank to have this rating. Even the few analysts who have rated them a "sell" or "underperform" are beginning to get on the stagecoach. Are all these people less knowledgeable than you? Is Buffet less knowledgeable than you?
When the stock price gets to $50 you will be saying I should have gotten on the stagecoach when it was in the 30's.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-268073 268073 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 23:25:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-268050 268050 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 22:40:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-268006 268006 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 21:49:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267950 267950 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 20:39:48 -0400
Paulson said the U.S. economy is in a ``a very fragile situation'' even with enactment of the bailout. ``We will have turbulence and turmoil in our financial system for some time,''

Don't let the fact you have no money stop you! Don't let the fact that every country in the world thinks that we are idiots and that they are currently in the process of limiting exposure with our economy bother you!

BUY! BUY! BUY!

How on Earth do you think we got into this mess in the first place?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267898 267898 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 19:29:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267893 267893 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 19:20:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267875 267875 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 18:56:37 -0400
If WFC goes up and/or KO goes down -- that still doesnt provide any evidence about whether WFC was a conservative lender.

Buffett saw the disaster in derivatives coming precisely because they caused him so much pain in his General Re purchase -- he got burned, it wasn't foresight at all.

General Re was his largest single purchase -- WFC and KO are only his largest holdings in publicly listed companies, they are much smaller in size than GenRe

Avoiding option ARMs (assuming they really did avoid them) is important -- but it doesn't tell us anything about their underwriting of other mortgage types. If they lent money on overpriced California real estate, they can still have massive losses. Its hard to imagine how they could have avoided that mess entirely.

And to RobM: constantly repeating that WFC is very conservative does not make it so... it just makes you sound like a parrot. I readily admit my only experience with WFC is very anecdotal and not a good basis from which to draw an opinion... I would love to see some actual numbers about WFC's loan underwriting, rather than mindless religious chanting.

I have had several dozen Wall Street "analysts" try to sell me credit products related to WFC and they CONSTANTLY repeat over and over that WFC is super conservative -- but not one of them has been able to show me any numbers.

That doesn't prove anything about WFC -- but it does tell me the crowds are dangerously mindless. Following the mindless crowds is a great way to lose a lot of money]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267839 267839 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 18:06:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267832 267832 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 17:56:16 -0400
www.dataroma.com/m/hol...

The chances are that with more additions and rising stock price, wfc may in fact surpass KO and become his largest holding. He actually spent more money buying WFC shares in 2007 than JNJ, and that's inspite of the fact that he already held a large chunk of wfc. This is buffetts proverbial fat-pitch, and of course other investors are completely oblivious to it. But that is what makes him great. He sees things before everyone else does. He saw the credit crunch comming, he saw the disaster waiting to happen with derivatives and the very likely real estate bust. And yet, he kept adding to his wfc position. He knew that wfc's earnings were not peak earnings - that if anything, the credit boom had intensified competition, thereby making life harder for conservative and well managed banks like wfc. Ironically, the credit crunch has now given wfc an opportunity to increase market share and benefit from rising margins while other banks are selling assets to shore up capital.

Buffett is a genius.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267824 267824 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 17:44:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267814 267814 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 17:31:09 -0400
Buffett himself would beg to differ with you. He sunk a lot of money into USAir Group -- which was a huge losing trade until some "bright" state pension managers from Georgia decided to buy USAir and bail Buffett out.

Buffett was a big investor in Fannie Mae -- but after holding the position for several years he bailed out and called Fannie a disaster waiting to happen.

Lets not forget one of his biggest purchases was General Re, which came with billions in undocumented derivatives trades that eventually led Buffett to call derivatives weapons of financial destruction.

Too many of Buffetts disciples only remember his winning trades-- like everyone else, Buffett has had some failures too.

As for Wells Fargo -- the company is extraordinarily concentrated in California, which is having one of the most severe real estate collapses in the country.

Some people like to claim WFC is more conservative in lending, but there isn't much evidence behind this folklore. It might be true, but the only "evidence" anyone ever gives is that "everyone knows Wells Fargo is more conservative"... If they were really more conservative, we should have seen a terrible plummet in the amount of loans they were writing near the peak of the real estate bubble -- but instead we saw a continuation of the trend. Doesn't sound like they were turning away people.

I happen to have several colleagues who received **unsolicited** home equity loans from Wells Fargo through the US Mail. They never requested the loans, so obviously they didnt fill out any liar loan type documentation -- or any documentation. All they had to do was endorse the back of the check and deposit it in their checking account and the loan was activated!!!!

I know this is very anecdotal evidence, but it really made me reconsider the "accepted wisdom" that Wells Fargo is more conservative in their lending.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267798 267798 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 17:04:11 -0400
Remember, Buffett is never wrong on his big bets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267747 267747 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 16:06:56 -0400
If you look at the number of accounts opened versus the value of deposits, you can clearly see that the people creating new accounts during the depression were in some way wealthier than those already holding accounts, suggesting WFC was expanding into a void in a relatively new market. Today it's grown rather sizeable in its old market venue and has to compete in all other markets. What WFC has going for it now is not what was going for it 70 years ago. Still strong though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267741 267741 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 15:59:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267732 267732 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 15:46:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267726 267726 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 15:37:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97712-wells-fargo-a-growth-stock-during-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-267704 267704 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 15:28:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93342-allied-irish-banks-with-9-dividend-this-bank-could-thrive?source=feed#comment-251716 251716 Thu, 11 Sep 2008 12:19:09 -0400
That was a very important point that Mason Hawkins mentioned regarding the bank knowing each and every one of their customers. Thats the way it is done here in Ireland.

The population in Ireland has been growing and is currently 4 million people. The population in Ireland before the great potato famine was 8 million. Our population will grow and return to 8 million perhaps by 2040 to 2050. At present there is a baby boom. All these people will need banking facilities :-)

Eamonn
Value investor Ireland
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93342-allied-irish-banks-with-9-dividend-this-bank-could-thrive?source=feed#comment-244960 244960 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 19:15:52 -0400
Ireland does withhold 20% as per the EU norm, UK excepted, I believe. Canada does the same. However, it is very easily reclaimed on your tax filing irrespective of your tax bracket or filing status. That is to say, you still get 100% of the dividend, you just get some of it as a credit on your taxes. It takes the form of an entry in box 6 of form 1099-DIV from the brokerage firm indicating the foreign tax paid. This full amount is then entered for a credit on the second side of the standard 1040. On the 2007 verion of the 1040, it was line 51, titled, "Foreign Tax Credit." It is terribly easy to accomplish and, when dealing with publicly traded stocks, as opposed to control stakes in a private, foreign-domiciled businesses, there are no extra supplemental forms.

While easily done, I fully concede that a more rigorous analysis of AIB's pluses and minuses would entail a time value of money calculation taking into account some months of lost interest on that withheld 20%.

The Irish government's tax policy, a matter of remarkable clarity, is outlined in the link below.

Cordially,
DD


www.idaireland.com/upl...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93342-allied-irish-banks-with-9-dividend-this-bank-could-thrive?source=feed#comment-244961 244961 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 19:15:52 -0400
Ireland does withhold 20% as per the EU norm, UK excepted, I believe. Canada does the same. However, it is very easily reclaimed on your tax filing irrespective of your tax bracket or filing status. That is to say, you still get 100% of the dividend, you just get some of it as a credit on your taxes. It takes the form of an entry in box 6 of form 1099-DIV from the brokerage firm indicating the foreign tax paid. This full amount is then entered for a credit on the second side of the standard 1040. On the 2007 verion of the 1040, it was line 51, titled, "Foreign Tax Credit." It is terribly easy to accomplish and, when dealing with publicly traded stocks, as opposed to control stakes in a private, foreign-domiciled businesses, there are no extra supplemental forms.

While easily done, I fully concede that a more rigorous analysis of AIB's pluses and minuses would entail a time value of money calculation taking into account some months of lost interest on that withheld 20%.

The Irish government's tax policy, a matter of remarkable clarity, is outlined in the link below.

Cordially,
DD


www.idaireland.com/upl...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93342-allied-irish-banks-with-9-dividend-this-bank-could-thrive?source=feed#comment-244815 244815 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:35:50 -0400
Incidentally, the tax as levied by European companies is levied on U.S. qualified plans as opposed to U.S. tax policy in the U.S.

In my experience, the 20% withholding tax on dividends is a dead loss to my clients.

Burton A. Johnson, MD, JD
President
Burton A. Johnson Portfolio Management, Inc.
Sandy Spring, MD USA]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93342-allied-irish-banks-with-9-dividend-this-bank-could-thrive?source=feed#comment-244566 244566 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:55:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93342-allied-irish-banks-with-9-dividend-this-bank-could-thrive?source=feed#comment-243937 243937 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 13:18:38 -0400