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Riley Wilkins

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  • Apple: Not So Cool Anymore [View article]
    Well they've sold at least 1, but I'm not sure who would buy it other than Bezos... :P
    Oct 15 03:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Not So Cool Anymore [View article]
    It's not too difficult to figure out who is a professional blogger looking for clicks..
    1. Anonymous author.
    2. Fills article with charts to take up space (make it appear longer, so that it's accepted.)
    3. Cover a super mega-cap, to ensure lots of clicks.
    4. Call the Apple Watch, iWatch. Enough said.
    Oct 15 03:36 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Not So Cool Anymore [View article]
    You lost ALL credibility when you said "iWatch"... twice... c'mon man you know absolutely nothing about Apple.
    Oct 15 03:29 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Apple: The Important Details For iPad Event [View article]
    I don't think they'll unveil a hybrid device. I once heard Craig Federighi talk about Surface Pro like devices, and if I remember correctly they don't believe a hybrid provides an optimal user experience. You could be right though, we'll just have to wait and see.
    Oct 14 08:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Worth Much More On A Discounted Cash Flow Basis [View article]
    Thanks for the article,
    It's easy to forget that valuing a business comes down to figuring out how much cash a business will produce over its lifetime and then discounting it back to the present. Certainly easier said than done. I always appreciate a write up that focuses on FCF instead of EPS. EPS doesn't always properly reflect a company's ability to make money, as GAAP states that depreciation and amortization must be expensed over time, even though zero cash outflows are associated with this understating true power of the business.
    Oct 13 10:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese iPhone 6 pre-orders reportedly top 20M [View news story]
    Oct 13 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Carl Icahn Is (Kinda) Right About Apple Stock [View article]
    I think you're right about Apple Watch, it's going to be a massively successful product. First year sales may only be 20-25 million or so, but going forward I think the category has tremendous potential, esp. considering the health and fitness tracking is extremely useful. I'm also excited to see the 3rd party accessories that come out. My guess is big designers (Louis Vuitton, ect.) will make designer bands for the Watch, which makes the watch even more customizable than it is currently. IMO I see Apple Watch accounting for 15-20% of profits in 2 years
    Oct 13 02:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Use The Apple Cash Machine To Grab A 9%-Plus Yield And Beat The Market Pullback [View article]
    Icahn is right. If AAPL did a massive $100 billion dollar tender at the current share price, AAPL's outstanding share count would fall from roughly 6 to 5 billion. This would boost FY15 EPS from an estimated ~$7.50 to ~ $8.75... with a PE of 16.5, shares should trade to $144 or higher. Why is Wall Street so wrong? They've neglected the value of $133 billion in net cash and they're underestimating 'organic' growth.
    Oct 12 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SA Contributor Community: 10,000 Contributors Edition [View article]
    Ray Dalio is a SA contributor! WTF, lol that's awesome.
    Oct 11 08:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple With 3.50% Yield Can Reach $203 [View article]
    I agree that Icahn only cares about Icahn, but he's right when he says AAPL still cheap. Look at the financials, and model the cash flows and account for the giant net cash position. Some people pay way too much attention to the behavior of others instead of figuring out what a company is worth. If I could I'd give Icahn a call and thank him for sending that letter.
    Oct 10 02:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple With 3.50% Yield Can Reach $203 [View article]
    Bio, I'm not trying to be a dick here, but what makes Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, GS, or BAML, experts on the share price of Apple? You need to learn how to model cash flows yourself, listening solely to the advice of sell side analysts will produce results that are average, more likely below average over time. To state Apple's upside is limited and then point to a nobody at Deutsche Bank's hold recommendation as evidence is amateurish. I mean no offense, but you'll be better off when you're able to come to your own conclusions.
    Oct 10 02:09 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple With 3.50% Yield Can Reach $203 [View article]
    Icahn may be slightly exaggerating the value of Apple. It's a lot more convincing to say Apple is worth double or 100% more instead of 78% more or 67% more, and will likely get the board to do the right thing, which is to begin an $80 billion dollar tender. Either way he knows Apple is worth significantly more and in his own interest and interest of all shareholders, they should take his advice.
    Oct 10 01:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple With 3.50% Yield Can Reach $203 [View article]
    I agree that a dividend increase would send shares up BUT in theory it shouldn't. Whether or not Apple pays that extra cash out as a dividend, adds it to the war chest, uses it for R&D, general corporate purposes, whatever it shouldn't actually affect the intrinsic value. It's zero sum so long as the benefit derived from paying a dividend is equal to the next best use of that cash. Markets aren't rational though, which is exactly why Icahn sent Cook a letter. Wall Street refuses to place ANY value on that $133 billion net cash on the balance sheet, whereas if it were used for a massive tender it would get priced in.
    Oct 10 01:34 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Activist Carl Icahn Overly Aggressive On His EPS Estimate? [View article]
    Nice article, I expect Apple to announce an increase in buybacks during March or April, maybe they'll actually have the guts to do an $70-80 billion dollar tender offer at a 10% premium to market prices, I certainly hope so because it'll create value for LT shareholders. The next major product will definitely disrupt TV, it's impossible to not get this impression after watching Cook's interview part I with Charlie Rose. He mentions that "TV is stuck in the 70s" with a "terrible user interface" or something like that, and it comes across as an area of focus. Will it be an all-in-one TV set? Or something else? We'll have to wait and see
    Oct 10 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple No Longer Seems Massively Cheap, Even Ex-Cash [View article]
    I usually have great respect for your work, but I think you rushed this article. Not to say an article needs to be long to be insightful, but the brevity suggests you kind of impulsively wrote something to say Icahn's PT is a bit too optimistic. Consensus FY15 earnings are way too conservative and this is because they don't want to look like fools again like they did in 2012 when they predicted $50/share and it came in at like $42. Now we have the reverse, consensus of $7.2 when it'll be most likely be much higher. This doesn't even include the ex-cash argument that you present. I trust Icahn more than a nobody Morgan Stanley analyst who has a generic, conservative, $115 or whatever PT based on a very conservative earnings estimate. If Icahn is right with his $9.00+ EPS for FY15 then asking for Apple to do a tender offer right now is a genius move.
    Oct 9 01:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment