The Fed Jawboned Dividend Stocks Lower, But It Won't Last [View article]
The first easy buy would be to pick up some of the utilities etf, XLU. It has sold off significantly as rates have risen, but over the last 15 years the Dow Jones Utility Index has not been highly correlated to rising or falling interest rates. The REITs have been hammered. They should present a buying opportunity soon.
Citizens of Bondsville: Welcome To Dividendsville [View article]
Thank you all for you very interesting and entertaining comments. REITlandia is such a great name for one of Bondsville's suburbs that I could kick myself for missing it.
Using The H Model To Value Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
Nice article. I am trying to replicate your numbers on Clorox and arrive at the same value as you do. I am very interested in the H model because i still use the old fashion 3 step dividend discount model.
Could you use the data for CLX and step me trough it by showing each entry in the model and it's value?. I'm getting a number about half of what you are getting and I have verified that you are right in my old fashioned model.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
Etep, Your experience is what I have been seeing for over a year. It did not used to be that way. If you get a chance to go again, take a look to see how much faster McD's serves the drive-throughs. I am convinced they have real work to do to get this situation solved, and I am convinced they will. The only surprising thing to me is that is has taken them so long.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
Hey Diane and Alex. Do I look like I'm 35. I'm going to be 66 this year. Tell me where we meet for our latte, Egg McMuffin's and a friendly chat.
Again thank you all so much for your comments. This is why I write for SA. I want to hear from real investors who have a point of view, even if it is different than mine. Blessings to you all, and good hunting for stocks you can believe in.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
Many comments about my 20% undervalued comment. That comes from our Dividend Valuation Model which I have shown at the bottom of the blog. Dividend growth and changes in interest rates have been able to predict the price growth of McD's with an R2 of .95. The past does not guarantee the future, but the correlation among the data is among the highest in our universe of stocks.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
Michael, thank you for your links and comments. I was surprised to learn from the McD's people, as you point out, that the McCafe products and specialty smoothies are not just a breakfast product. They are are spread throughout the day. Breakfast is big for them though.
I hear you on the profitability of the products. However, from the very beginning of McCafe and the specialty smoothies, in my opinion, they seem to be very time consuming and awkward to navigate for employees that are used to much simpler actions. I have also noticed, on a number of occasions, confusion as to who was going to run the preparation devices. Sometimes it is the person who took my order; sometimes it appeared to be a person assigned to the spot. I know this probably changes with how busy the store is. Additionally, in countless stores I've visited, these specialty products appear to be almost a nuisance to the employees. That is one more reason the appears to be a cultural clash. The products are great, but how much better would the experience be if they were served by people who were a part of or respected the coffee culture. Please don't let his sound snobbish. I have fallen hard for the McD's lattes. I think they are better than Starbucks. Until a year or so ago, I did not drink coffee.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
Thank you all for your comments. Lots of good points about this blog being US oriented. Indeed, MCD does more business outside the US than in. Please note also that we not only own MCD, but are planning on buying more. In my judgment, MCD is cheap even without the activist shareholders or the spin off of McCafe. But they also have some headwinds that will take some time to overcome.
I would really appreciate other people's comments about service and any comparisons you have with other busy stores.
Dividends: Still The Best All-Season Investment Strategy [View article]
Tortoise#1
Amen to Dividend Dynasty's comments. I learned dividend investing originally from a man who is now 91. I was his stock broker at the time, and as we returned form lunch one day, he said, Greg, I'd like for you to stop trying to make me rich. I have no interest in these little cat and dog stocks you keep recommending to me. From this day on, if it doesn't pay a dividend, I don't want to hear about it. It stunned me that he would pass up all the sure fired winners my investment firm at time was touting. Indeed, when I later started showing him dividend paying stocks, one of the managers of the firm told me that you couldn't make real money investing in big sleepy companies. Interestingly that firm went out of business a few years ago.
Dividends: Still The Best All-Season Investment Strategy [View article]
Let me try to figure out how to dig out that data. I can't promise anything, but I am a believer is the concept of dividend yield plus dividend growth.
Dividends: Still The Best All-Season Investment Strategy [View article]
Robert,
I just went to your site. Thanks for the tip. I have not seen it before. It's very informative. I'll spend some time with it. I may email you if I have questions.
Dividends: Still The Best All-Season Investment Strategy [View article]
ChanelS, you are correct CMI and DIS made the list. However MCD did not. Since we own it, I wish it would have.
We are analyzing the list at the present. We want to be sure there isn't one of the companies that successfully passes all the test that we should own or own more of. When that work is complete, I'll publish the list.
Robert, you are exactly right about companies with high rates of dividend growth. It's tough to do it for a long time. Just an FYI, in recent years we have moved away from insisting that every stock raise their dividend every year. There are companies that have treated us very well that skipped a year of dividend hikes. We have become much more interested in five and ten year rates of growth. Raising dividends when the annual results don't justify it, in our judgment, is not wise in every many cases. Some companies are so dedicated to their dividend increases that they hike when they should not.
Before dividends regained their popularity, there were lots of companies that did not raise their dividends in poor years and they heard very few complaints. With dividends now being the front of many investor's minds, I think many companies may feel compelled to keep dividend hikes going. I worry about that. Token, unjustified dividend hikes play heck with our models.
Dividend Star Abbott Labs Splitting Into 2 Companies: We Like The Decision [View article]
The concept ABT is following is an attempt to unlock value. They are betting that the two new companies will trade eventually at a higher PE than the current ABT does. The bottom line hope is that ABT will trade towards Mead Johnson's mid 20s PE and ABBVIE will go towards that of MRK and BMY. It looks to me like it's working. We will see after spin off in new year.
The Fed Jawboned Dividend Stocks Lower, But It Won't Last [View article]
Full disclosure: I own XLU and lots of utilities.
The Fed Jawboned Dividend Stocks Lower, But It Won't Last [View article]
Citizens of Bondsville: Welcome To Dividendsville [View article]
Thanks again,
Using The H Model To Value Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
Could you use the data for CLX and step me trough it by showing each entry in the model and it's value?. I'm getting a number about half of what you are getting and I have verified that you are right in my old fashioned model.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
Again thank you all so much for your comments. This is why I write for SA. I want to hear from real investors who have a point of view, even if it is different than mine. Blessings to you all, and good hunting for stocks you can believe in.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
I hear you on the profitability of the products. However, from the very beginning of McCafe and the specialty smoothies, in my opinion, they seem to be very time consuming and awkward to navigate for employees that are used to much simpler actions. I have also noticed, on a number of occasions, confusion as to who was going to run the preparation devices. Sometimes it is the person who took my order; sometimes it appeared to be a person assigned to the spot. I know this probably changes with how busy the store is. Additionally, in countless stores I've visited, these specialty products appear to be almost a nuisance to the employees. That is one more reason the appears to be a cultural clash. The products are great, but how much better would the experience be if they were served by people who were a part of or respected the coffee culture. Please don't let his sound snobbish. I have fallen hard for the McD's lattes. I think they are better than Starbucks. Until a year or so ago, I did not drink coffee.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
I would really appreciate other people's comments about service and any comparisons you have with other busy stores.
Dividends: Still The Best All-Season Investment Strategy [View article]
Amen to Dividend Dynasty's comments. I learned dividend investing originally from a man who is now 91. I was his stock broker at the time, and as we returned form lunch one day, he said, Greg, I'd like for you to stop trying to make me rich. I have no interest in these little cat and dog stocks you keep recommending to me. From this day on, if it doesn't pay a dividend, I don't want to hear about it. It stunned me that he would pass up all the sure fired winners my investment firm at time was touting. Indeed, when I later started showing him dividend paying stocks, one of the managers of the firm told me that you couldn't make real money investing in big sleepy companies. Interestingly that firm went out of business a few years ago.
Dividends: Still The Best All-Season Investment Strategy [View article]
Dividends: Still The Best All-Season Investment Strategy [View article]
Dividends: Still The Best All-Season Investment Strategy [View article]
I just went to your site. Thanks for the tip. I have not seen it before. It's very informative. I'll spend some time with it. I may email you if I have questions.
Dividends: Still The Best All-Season Investment Strategy [View article]
We are analyzing the list at the present. We want to be sure there isn't one of the companies that successfully passes all the test that we should own or own more of. When that work is complete, I'll publish the list.
Robert, you are exactly right about companies with high rates of dividend growth. It's tough to do it for a long time. Just an FYI, in recent years we have moved away from insisting that every stock raise their dividend every year. There are companies that have treated us very well that skipped a year of dividend hikes. We have become much more interested in five and ten year rates of growth. Raising dividends when the annual results don't justify it, in our judgment, is not wise in every many cases. Some companies are so dedicated to their dividend increases that they hike when they should not.
Before dividends regained their popularity, there were lots of companies that did not raise their dividends in poor years and they heard very few complaints. With dividends now being the front of many investor's minds, I think many companies may feel compelled to keep dividend hikes going. I worry about that. Token, unjustified dividend hikes play heck with our models.
Dividend Star Abbott Labs Splitting Into 2 Companies: We Like The Decision [View article]