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RJ Towner

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  • Cheap, But Not For A (Good) Reason: Celanese Offers High-Quality Growth [View article]
    Very enjoyable read, thanks for sharing. This isn't the sort of upside that I'm usually interested in, but in this market, it seems attractive to me.
    Nov 8 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm Hits A Home Run [View article]
    Just curious...how are they paying for these athletic endorsements like Kaepernick, Michael Vick, etc?

    Is it stock?
    Mar 27 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Roundy's: A Small Midwestern Grocer With Huge Potential Upside [View article]
    We've materially lowered our fair value to the single digits as the firm's Wisconsin business has deteriorated at an accelerating rate.
    Mar 14 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting Roundy's: Dividend Now In Play [View article]
    That's a very good question. We continue to believe the stock is cheap, but there's a lot of headwinds in the business/stock.

    1. Walmart/Woodman's stealing share in Wisconsin. Roundy's still has the #1 market share, but we think it's slipping.

    2. The dividend probably isn't sustainable. We think it's a way for the private equity owners to extract more capital from the business. This money would also be better spent paying down debt/spending on store improvements.

    However, the dividend isn't really part of our investment thesis.

    SVU pointed to cutting prices at Jewel (Chicago-based) and that's because it's getting killed. The stores don't offer the same shopping experience as Treasure Island, Mariano's (RNDY), Potash Market, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's or even Dominick's. There's a very big opportunity in the Chicago market, and Mariano's has executed well thus far. Not long ago Mariano's attempted to raise prices, but it backfired, so about 2 weeks later, pricing returned to previous levels.

    If you think Mariano's can win share in Chicago and the various Roundy's outlets in Wisconsin and Minnesota can defend share and post flat/slightly-up same-store sales numbers, then the story is very compelling. We think it can --but the dividend might get slashed in the next year or two which will likely hurt the stock in the near-term.

    If you have any other questions, feel free to email me.

    Thanks,

    RJ Towner
    Associate Director
    Valuentum Securities
    rj@valuentum.com
    Jul 14 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Sports Apparel Stocks To Consider, 1 To Avoid [View article]
    Any mention of Footlocker should include how much of its business is driven by Nike.

    A few questions though. With how well D.Rose and Dwight are doing for adidas, why do you have a hold?

    What are your thoughts on the huge inventory build at UA and its "SKU rationalization"? Doesn't this signal that they are producing too many products and don't have the demand to keep up?
    Mar 7 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar Misses Yet Again [View article]
    Gordon Johnson of Axciom Capital actually called this a short well above $100 and got me interested in the name. I wouldn't necessarily trust anyone on CNBC, but he's a very good analyst.
    Mar 2 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roundy's: A Small Midwestern Grocer With Huge Potential Upside [View article]
    I think we'll learn a lot from this earnings report. Currently trading at under 10x earnings, possible 9% dividend, and they are entering a VERY attractive Chicago market.
    Feb 27 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roundy's: A Small Midwestern Grocer With Huge Potential Upside [View article]
    I couldn't agree more, u068653. I spend some time in Libertyville every month and finally went in and now shop there for 80-90% of my groceries.

    It will be interesting to see if they can replicate the success of Vernon Hills, Palatine, and the two Chicago locations. I've noticed plans to build them in Glenview/Northfield and Wheaton thus far.
    Feb 24 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roundy's: A Small Midwestern Grocer With Huge Potential Upside [View article]
    Agreed, one of the reasons why we're a bit worried in the Appleton/Neenah/Oshkosh markets.
    Feb 24 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Supervalu/Winn Dixie Comparisons Are Wrong [View article]
    Wholesale here is great, but I could see them pawning off different divisions to competitors who are week in certain geographies.

    For instance, it makes a lot of sense for Kroger to acquire Jewel.
    Feb 23 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jamba Juice Expands Product Offering With Talbott Teas [View article]
    Good article Paolo.

    I tend to disagree that sales are going to go up much, particularly given higher fuel costs and a stagnant economy. I just don't see a lot of upside (though the stock has run quite a bit).

    Competition from McDonald's is nothing to scoff at either.
    Feb 22 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Preview: Roundy's [View article]
    Perfect example of PE not really caring about investors with that high dividend. I really really like the story here though once Willis-Stein is gone.
    Feb 22 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock.com Was Ineligible To File A Registration Statement Last December [View article]
    Excellent stuff again, Sam. Some of the best work on Seeking Alpha.
    Feb 22 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rick's Cabaret: Like Joe Cocker Said, 'You Can Leave Your Hat On' [View article]
    I think I'm too young to understand the title, but this is a nice overview of the business.
    Feb 14 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Investors Should Be Angry, But At Whom? [View article]
    Great article. This company is mediocre, and has been for a long-time. People love the lotto ticket stocks.
    Feb 9 12:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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88 Comments
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