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    <title>Rob Black - Seeking Alpha</title>
    <description>'Rob Black' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com</description>
    <author>
      <name>SeekingAlpha.com</name>
    </author>
    <link>http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black</link>
    <item>
      <title>Global Demand For Water Expected to Grow</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/37467-global-demand-for-water-expected-to-grow?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">37467</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[While the market may be segmented in many different ways, the global market for water is estimated at approximately $400 billion per year, with $100 billion spent annually in the United States.<!--more--> Globally, the municipal market represents about a $300 billion industry while the industrial segment represents about $100 billion. Within the U.S. market, municipal expenditures are split between the federal and state & local levels. For 2005, we estimate that total state and local expenditures for water infrastructure will be increase by about 10-12% Year over Year and will grow by a further 5-10% in 2006.
</p>
<p>The water industry can be segmented in several ways, municipal (supplying consumers) vs. industrial (supplying mostly process industries);  drinking water vs. wastewater.  Within each of these segments the market can then be broken down into different sub-sectors, such as equipment vs. chemicals vs. engineering services, etc. Each sub-segment has its own unique issues and opportunities. For example, chemical usage is in decline, whereas the use of membranes is increasing. Additionally, as a result of the increasing use of pharmaceuticals by consumers, new analytical testing requirements are being developed.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Wed, 06 Jun 2007 05:48:43 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  While the market may be segmented in many different ways, the global market for water is estimated at approximately $400 billion per year, with $100 billion spent annually in the United States.<!--more--> Globally, the municipal market represents about a $300 billion industry while the industrial segment represents about $100 billion. Within the U.S. market, municipal expenditures are split between the federal and state & local levels. For 2005, we estimate that total state and local expenditures for water infrastructure will be increase by about 10-12% Year over Year and will grow by a further 5-10% in 2006.
</p>
<p>The water industry can be segmented in several ways, municipal (supplying consumers) vs. industrial (supplying mostly process industries);  drinking water vs. wastewater.  Within each of these segments the market can then be broken down into different sub-sectors, such as equipment vs. chemicals vs. engineering services, etc. Each sub-segment has its own unique issues and opportunities. For example, chemical usage is in decline, whereas the use of membranes is increasing. Additionally, as a result of the increasing use of pharmaceuticals by consumers, new analytical testing requirements are being developed.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/37467-global-demand-for-water-expected-to-grow?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ame">AME</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cr">CR</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/dhr">DHR</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/fls">FLS</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/gdi">GDI</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ge">GE</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/iex">IEX</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/rop">ROP</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/si">SI</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>UnitedHealth Group CEO Updates Analysts On Long-Term Goals</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/37180-unitedhealth-group-ceo-updates-analysts-on-long-term-goals?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">37180</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Analysts recently held a series of meetings with UnitedHealth Group (UNH) CEO, Stephen Hemsley.<!--more-->   Looking ahead, they considered demonstrating improved operational precision/stability in the quarterly reports, and creating a view toward a differentiated, long-term earnings growth outlook as the two key factors that were most critical for the stock.

<p>On the first issue, the company is emphatic that it has seen “no recurrence at all” of the utilization  issues that impacted the 1st quarter commercial MCR.  On the second, there is no backing down from long-term growth outlook. It is targeting to more than double the top line over next decade (an extra $100 billion), and reiterated its view for 15% EPS  growth. The company sees business unit realignment as more significant than is generally recognized.
</p>
<p>Government programs are still a key component for growth, comprising about half of the top-line target. Senior business is a major factor, but could TRICARE be ahead?  The company acknowledges that it needs to show a return to organic commercial growth, and believes that the organization is now more focused on product innovation that can achieve this goal, with evidence of this becoming apparent in 2008. The company also notes its strained relationship with the benefit consulting community, even though they have implemented actions to address this issue.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 04 Jun 2007 11:27:16 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  Analysts recently held a series of meetings with UnitedHealth Group (UNH) CEO, Stephen Hemsley.<!--more-->   Looking ahead, they considered demonstrating improved operational precision/stability in the quarterly reports, and creating a view toward a differentiated, long-term earnings growth outlook as the two key factors that were most critical for the stock.

<p>On the first issue, the company is emphatic that it has seen “no recurrence at all” of the utilization  issues that impacted the 1st quarter commercial MCR.  On the second, there is no backing down from long-term growth outlook. It is targeting to more than double the top line over next decade (an extra $100 billion), and reiterated its view for 15% EPS  growth. The company sees business unit realignment as more significant than is generally recognized.
</p>
<p>Government programs are still a key component for growth, comprising about half of the top-line target. Senior business is a major factor, but could TRICARE be ahead?  The company acknowledges that it needs to show a return to organic commercial growth, and believes that the organization is now more focused on product innovation that can achieve this goal, with evidence of this becoming apparent in 2008. The company also notes its strained relationship with the benefit consulting community, even though they have implemented actions to address this issue.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/37180-unitedhealth-group-ceo-updates-analysts-on-long-term-goals?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/unh">UNH</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Yahoo and Google Moving Ahead on Three Separate Projects</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/36807-yahoo-and-google-moving-ahead-on-three-separate-projects?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">36807</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[According to reliable sources, Yahoo (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) are moving forward on the following projects:<!--more-->
</p>
<p>Forums at Search Engine <a href="http://forums.seroundtable.com/showthread.php?t=1921">Roundtable</a>, are reporting that Yahoo has begun contacting U.K. advertisers  about the impending launch of Panama.<!--more--> Snippets from the email Yahoo sent out can be seen at <a href="http://www.ppcblog.co.uk/yahoo/yahoo-testing-new-quality-based-ranking-algo-in-uk/">PPC  Blog</a>.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Wed, 30 May 2007 06:15:41 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  According to reliable sources, Yahoo (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) are moving forward on the following projects:<!--more-->
</p>
<p>Forums at Search Engine <a href="http://forums.seroundtable.com/showthread.php?t=1921">Roundtable</a>, are reporting that Yahoo has begun contacting U.K. advertisers  about the impending launch of Panama.<!--more--> Snippets from the email Yahoo sent out can be seen at <a href="http://www.ppcblog.co.uk/yahoo/yahoo-testing-new-quality-based-ranking-algo-in-uk/">PPC  Blog</a>.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/36807-yahoo-and-google-moving-ahead-on-three-separate-projects?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/goog">GOOG</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/yhoo">YHOO</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title> Strong Growth Outlook for Abercrombie &amp; Fitch</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/36508-strong-growth-outlook-for-abercrombie-fitch?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">36508</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Analysts are seeing solid near-term fundamentals, and a still-reasonable sector valuation that has been dampened by a less favorable long-term secular outlook.<!--more-->

<p>Despite this, Abercrombie & Fitch's (ANF) growth outlook is very strong and visible.  It is supported by Hollister, which is expected to double its revenues to $3 billion in the U.S., and International, which has been off to a robust start with the March opening of its flagship store in London.
</p>
<p>ANF's business model is one of the best in specialty retail. The bottom line here is that this is one of the strongest and sustainable businesses in an industry that is known for being volatile. 
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 25 May 2007 03:52:32 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  Analysts are seeing solid near-term fundamentals, and a still-reasonable sector valuation that has been dampened by a less favorable long-term secular outlook.<!--more-->

<p>Despite this, Abercrombie & Fitch's (ANF) growth outlook is very strong and visible.  It is supported by Hollister, which is expected to double its revenues to $3 billion in the U.S., and International, which has been off to a robust start with the March opening of its flagship store in London.
</p>
<p>ANF's business model is one of the best in specialty retail. The bottom line here is that this is one of the strongest and sustainable businesses in an industry that is known for being volatile. 
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/36508-strong-growth-outlook-for-abercrombie-fitch?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/anf">ANF</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Sun Microsystems: Showing Signs of Growth</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/35994-sun-microsystems-showing-signs-of-growth?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">35994</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Sun Microsytems (SUNW) is still a turnaround, but now there is potential for upside.  <!--more-->

<p>Analysts met with Sun Microsystems CEO Jonathan Schwartz and came away convinced that investors should use the recent pullback to add to positions in order to participate in the ongoing turnaround. 
</p>
<p>It now is focusing on cost reduction (with operating expenses declining in 2008 from 2007), along with growth (although growth may take longer to show). The company gave no new guidance and is  maintaining estimates. 
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 21 May 2007 07:00:20 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  Sun Microsytems (SUNW) is still a turnaround, but now there is potential for upside.  <!--more-->

<p>Analysts met with Sun Microsystems CEO Jonathan Schwartz and came away convinced that investors should use the recent pullback to add to positions in order to participate in the ongoing turnaround. 
</p>
<p>It now is focusing on cost reduction (with operating expenses declining in 2008 from 2007), along with growth (although growth may take longer to show). The company gave no new guidance and is  maintaining estimates. 
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/35994-sun-microsystems-showing-signs-of-growth?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/java">JAVA</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Is the Global Boom Affecting the U.S Market? </title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/36095-is-the-global-boom-affecting-the-u-s-market?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">36095</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Plentiful liquidity remains a dominant feature of the economic and market environment and is sustaining the equity-favorable reflation process that began in 2002.<!--more--> Expect equities to continue outperforming bonds, and foreign equities to outperform U.S. equities, although in both cases it will be less dramatic than in recent years.
</p>
<p>For now, expect the global boom to continue. As a result, the following industries will continue to benefit: infrastructure, materials, consumption, travel and leisure, the expansion of financial services abroad, and environment-oriented capital spending.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 21 May 2007 06:28:34 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  Plentiful liquidity remains a dominant feature of the economic and market environment and is sustaining the equity-favorable reflation process that began in 2002.<!--more--> Expect equities to continue outperforming bonds, and foreign equities to outperform U.S. equities, although in both cases it will be less dramatic than in recent years.
</p>
<p>For now, expect the global boom to continue. As a result, the following industries will continue to benefit: infrastructure, materials, consumption, travel and leisure, the expansion of financial services abroad, and environment-oriented capital spending.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/36095-is-the-global-boom-affecting-the-u-s-market?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Waters Continues Its Growth</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/33876-waters-continues-its-growth?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">33876</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Waters (WAT) was incorporated in 1994 to acquire the Waters Chromatography Division of Millipore (MIL) and completed an initial public offering in 1995. <!--more-->In May 1996, Waters completed the acquisition of TA Instruments, which expanded the company’s capabilities from liquid chromatography to include instruments used to analyze the impact of temperature on materials. 

<p>In September 1997, Waters further extended its scientific instruments capabilities to include mass spectrometry with the purchase of MicroMass Limited. The combination of these three units is considered to be the current core business of WAT.
</p>
<p>Since the acquisition of MicroMass, Waters has completed several smaller acquisitions, with the most important being the rheology product line of Rheometric Scientific in January 2003. Rheometers measure the response of materials to strain, which is complementary to the company’s Thermal Analysis product line. In both instances, the tested materials and customers are similar.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 30 Apr 2007 04:09:23 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  Waters (WAT) was incorporated in 1994 to acquire the Waters Chromatography Division of Millipore (MIL) and completed an initial public offering in 1995. <!--more-->In May 1996, Waters completed the acquisition of TA Instruments, which expanded the company’s capabilities from liquid chromatography to include instruments used to analyze the impact of temperature on materials. 

<p>In September 1997, Waters further extended its scientific instruments capabilities to include mass spectrometry with the purchase of MicroMass Limited. The combination of these three units is considered to be the current core business of WAT.
</p>
<p>Since the acquisition of MicroMass, Waters has completed several smaller acquisitions, with the most important being the rheology product line of Rheometric Scientific in January 2003. Rheometers measure the response of materials to strain, which is complementary to the company’s Thermal Analysis product line. In both instances, the tested materials and customers are similar.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/33876-waters-continues-its-growth?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/wat">WAT</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Coach 3Q07 Earnings Review</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/33581-coach-3q07-earnings-review?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">33581</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Coach (COH) reported earnings (see <a href="http://retail.seekingalpha.com/article/33330">conference call transcript</a>) of  $0.39 versus consensus of $0.38. <!--more-->The following are the key takeaways from the press release. 

<p>COH reported sales of $625 million versus driven by strong comps in U.S. Retail (15.1%, Factory (26.6%).   Operating margins were up an impressive +300bps, Year over Year.  Gross margins were disappointing but were offset with some savings on the administrative side and they expect GM to regain traction in the upcoming quarters as the company introduces higher margin coated canvas handbags.   
</p>
<p> COH is exiting its Small Corporate Accounts business (to increase its brand control), which contributed 1c of income in the quarter and was expected to contribute 10c for 2007. COH trades at 15x EV/EBITDA and 27x calendar 2007 EPS, a premium to its peers but a discount to its historical P/E average of 28x. The multiple can be justified, with room to expand given high and consistent returns on capital, strong cash flow, near 25% sustainable earnings growth, and recent acceleration in the business. 
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 26 Apr 2007 04:52:30 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  Coach (COH) reported earnings (see <a href="http://retail.seekingalpha.com/article/33330">conference call transcript</a>) of  $0.39 versus consensus of $0.38. <!--more-->The following are the key takeaways from the press release. 

<p>COH reported sales of $625 million versus driven by strong comps in U.S. Retail (15.1%, Factory (26.6%).   Operating margins were up an impressive +300bps, Year over Year.  Gross margins were disappointing but were offset with some savings on the administrative side and they expect GM to regain traction in the upcoming quarters as the company introduces higher margin coated canvas handbags.   
</p>
<p> COH is exiting its Small Corporate Accounts business (to increase its brand control), which contributed 1c of income in the quarter and was expected to contribute 10c for 2007. COH trades at 15x EV/EBITDA and 27x calendar 2007 EPS, a premium to its peers but a discount to its historical P/E average of 28x. The multiple can be justified, with room to expand given high and consistent returns on capital, strong cash flow, near 25% sustainable earnings growth, and recent acceleration in the business. 
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/33581-coach-3q07-earnings-review?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/coh">COH</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>NAND Memory Fundamentals Improving</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/31602-nand-memory-fundamentals-improving?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">31602</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[The recent tightening in the NAND (Flash) market and resulting rebound in pricing has been partly driven by inventory replenishment and yield issues at manufacturers, which raises the concern that pricing could be flattish or under downward pressure once the inventory replenishment is completed and/or yields improve.<!--more--> 
</p>
<p>Despite this “head-fake” risk, analysts expect any such risk to be temporary, as NAND industry fundamentals are indeed improving in 2nd quarter 2007 from a supply versus demand standpoint, and we continue to believe that NAND supply-demand will be balanced in 2nd half 2007. At these levels the upside potential on the stock exceeds downside risk.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 05 Apr 2007 04:10:02 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  The recent tightening in the NAND (Flash) market and resulting rebound in pricing has been partly driven by inventory replenishment and yield issues at manufacturers, which raises the concern that pricing could be flattish or under downward pressure once the inventory replenishment is completed and/or yields improve.<!--more--> 
</p>
<p>Despite this “head-fake” risk, analysts expect any such risk to be temporary, as NAND industry fundamentals are indeed improving in 2nd quarter 2007 from a supply versus demand standpoint, and we continue to believe that NAND supply-demand will be balanced in 2nd half 2007. At these levels the upside potential on the stock exceeds downside risk.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/31602-nand-memory-fundamentals-improving?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/sndk">SNDK</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Qualcomm: Sound Business Entering Period Of Uncertainty</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/31418-qualcomm-sound-business-entering-period-of-uncertainty?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">31418</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Let’s talk Qualcomm (QCOM).  The business is sound as 3G uptake is strong, chip orders remain solid, and the handset market is healthy. <!--more-->Cost improvements in chips should continue throughout the year. QCOM also expects to recognize some Pantech royalty revenue in 2nd quarter which  helps the effective royalty rate and profitability.
</p>
<p>Big dates coming up.  Nokia/April 9th: QCOM's pessimism regarding a near-term resolution with Nokia has not changed. Although the companies will conduct another round of negotiations ahead of April 9th, there is a low likelihood that an agreement will be reached by then. If no agreement is reached, analysts would likely remove Nokia royalties from EPS estimate – the impact would be $0.06 in 2007 and ~$0.28-0.30 in 2008. While the headline multiple would change, it is important to remind investors that Nokia is willing to pay QCOM some royalties (analysts believe a 50% reduction in the rate would be acceptable to Nokia).
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 03 Apr 2007 17:40:48 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  Let’s talk Qualcomm (QCOM).  The business is sound as 3G uptake is strong, chip orders remain solid, and the handset market is healthy. <!--more-->Cost improvements in chips should continue throughout the year. QCOM also expects to recognize some Pantech royalty revenue in 2nd quarter which  helps the effective royalty rate and profitability.
</p>
<p>Big dates coming up.  Nokia/April 9th: QCOM's pessimism regarding a near-term resolution with Nokia has not changed. Although the companies will conduct another round of negotiations ahead of April 9th, there is a low likelihood that an agreement will be reached by then. If no agreement is reached, analysts would likely remove Nokia royalties from EPS estimate – the impact would be $0.06 in 2007 and ~$0.28-0.30 in 2008. While the headline multiple would change, it is important to remind investors that Nokia is willing to pay QCOM some royalties (analysts believe a 50% reduction in the rate would be acceptable to Nokia).
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/31418-qualcomm-sound-business-entering-period-of-uncertainty?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/qcom">QCOM</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Amazon's Ad Program Could Augment Revenue Growth</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/30980-amazon-s-ad-program-could-augment-revenue-growth?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">30980</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Recently, Amazon (AMZN) unveiled a new Beta program that allows publishers (bloggers, etc) to embed ads among the web page's text which will link to Amazon products.   The new product, dubbed "Context Links" is available to registered Amazon Associates and requires some additional code to be added to the publisher's web page, which then matches text content on the page to relevant Amazon products that consumers can buy.<!--more--> The publisher receives a referral fee - see <a href="http://www.affiliatemanager.net/index.shtml">an example here</a>.
</p>
<p>The program is designed to bring incremental revenue to content creators, as well as Amazon. The new Context Links format allows publishers to customize: the number of links per page, the portion of the page that is linked, which Amazon products are linked, the format of the link to discern it as an ad, and whether previews appear upon mouse overs. Amazon benefits upon increased sales as well as the branding of Amazon every time there is a "mouse over."
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 03:12:33 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  Recently, Amazon (AMZN) unveiled a new Beta program that allows publishers (bloggers, etc) to embed ads among the web page's text which will link to Amazon products.   The new product, dubbed "Context Links" is available to registered Amazon Associates and requires some additional code to be added to the publisher's web page, which then matches text content on the page to relevant Amazon products that consumers can buy.<!--more--> The publisher receives a referral fee - see <a href="http://www.affiliatemanager.net/index.shtml">an example here</a>.
</p>
<p>The program is designed to bring incremental revenue to content creators, as well as Amazon. The new Context Links format allows publishers to customize: the number of links per page, the portion of the page that is linked, which Amazon products are linked, the format of the link to discern it as an ad, and whether previews appear upon mouse overs. Amazon benefits upon increased sales as well as the branding of Amazon every time there is a "mouse over."
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/30980-amazon-s-ad-program-could-augment-revenue-growth?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/amzn">AMZN</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title> Unemployment Rate Declines, May Raise Fed Concerns</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/29388-unemployment-rate-declines-may-raise-fed-concerns?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">29388</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[The unemployment rate fell to 4.5% in February. Employment in the household survey was 145.9 million in February, up 9.5 million since the current expansion began in December 2001. Employment in the establishment survey, which doesn’t include self-employed or agricultural workers, was 137.4 million, up 6.5 million in the same period.
</p>
<p>The unemployment rate has been one of the best indicators of the strength and steadiness of the expansion. This  rate comes from a survey of households and has been reflecting the dynamism of the economy.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 13 Mar 2007 05:24:22 -0400</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  The unemployment rate fell to 4.5% in February. Employment in the household survey was 145.9 million in February, up 9.5 million since the current expansion began in December 2001. Employment in the establishment survey, which doesn’t include self-employed or agricultural workers, was 137.4 million, up 6.5 million in the same period.
</p>
<p>The unemployment rate has been one of the best indicators of the strength and steadiness of the expansion. This  rate comes from a survey of households and has been reflecting the dynamism of the economy.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/29388-unemployment-rate-declines-may-raise-fed-concerns?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Rob Black's Healthcare Stock Report</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/27804-rob-black-s-healthcare-stock-report?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">27804</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<strong>Merck</strong> (MRK) said it would stop its U.S. lobbying push to make the company's Gardasil cervical cancer vaccine a requirement for schoolgirls aged 9 and above. <!--more-->The lobbying program received widespread media criticism. The vaccine, approved in 2006 for females aged 9 to 26, works against two strains of the human papillomavirus that are responsible for about 70 percent of cervical cancer cases.
</p>
<p><strong>Medco Health Solutions</strong> (MHS), the biggest U.S. drug-benefits manager, reported a 29 percent jump in profit to $228 million and raised its 2007 forecast after selling a higher proportion of generic copies of medicines.  Revenue rose 1.2 percent to $10.9 billion. New lower-cost copies of drugs such as <strong>Pfizer</strong>'s (PFE) antidepressant Zoloft and Merck's cholesterol pill Zocor have better profit margins for Medco, which buys medicines for employers, unions and insurers. Sales have risen for the past seven quarters, and analysts expect new generics coming on the market to allow Medco to keep growing for several more years. The shift to generics doesn't appear to end for about another three to four years. The model doesn't have any inherent weaknesses.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 22 Feb 2007 11:42:16 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  <strong>Merck</strong> (MRK) said it would stop its U.S. lobbying push to make the company's Gardasil cervical cancer vaccine a requirement for schoolgirls aged 9 and above. <!--more-->The lobbying program received widespread media criticism. The vaccine, approved in 2006 for females aged 9 to 26, works against two strains of the human papillomavirus that are responsible for about 70 percent of cervical cancer cases.
</p>
<p><strong>Medco Health Solutions</strong> (MHS), the biggest U.S. drug-benefits manager, reported a 29 percent jump in profit to $228 million and raised its 2007 forecast after selling a higher proportion of generic copies of medicines.  Revenue rose 1.2 percent to $10.9 billion. New lower-cost copies of drugs such as <strong>Pfizer</strong>'s (PFE) antidepressant Zoloft and Merck's cholesterol pill Zocor have better profit margins for Medco, which buys medicines for employers, unions and insurers. Sales have risen for the past seven quarters, and analysts expect new generics coming on the market to allow Medco to keep growing for several more years. The shift to generics doesn't appear to end for about another three to four years. The model doesn't have any inherent weaknesses.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/27804-rob-black-s-healthcare-stock-report?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cmx">CMX</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/mhs">MHS</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/mrk">MRK</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/pfe">PFE</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Rob Black's Financial Stock Report</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/27787-rob-black-s-financial-stock-report?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">27787</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[CIBC upgrades <strong>Wells Fargo</strong> (WFC)  to Sector Outperform with a $42 target. The upgrade was  based on compelling relative historical valuation and the $8 billion war chest of excess capital atop which the company is currently sitting. <!--more-->The firm believes this will be used to do a deal, buy back shares, or raise the dividend near term.
</p>
<p>Deutsche Bank downgrades <strong>NovaStar Financial</strong> (NFI) Hold from Buy and lowers their target to $8 from $29. The downgrade is based on disappointing results and guidance of little to no taxable income from 2007-2011.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 22 Feb 2007 09:00:23 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  CIBC upgrades <strong>Wells Fargo</strong> (WFC)  to Sector Outperform with a $42 target. The upgrade was  based on compelling relative historical valuation and the $8 billion war chest of excess capital atop which the company is currently sitting. <!--more-->The firm believes this will be used to do a deal, buy back shares, or raise the dividend near term.
</p>
<p>Deutsche Bank downgrades <strong>NovaStar Financial</strong> (NFI) Hold from Buy and lowers their target to $8 from $29. The downgrade is based on disappointing results and guidance of little to no taxable income from 2007-2011.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/27787-rob-black-s-financial-stock-report?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aea">AEA</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/csh">CSH</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/fcfs">FCFS</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/nfi">NFI</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/wfc">WFC</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Rob Black's Retail Stock Report</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/27637-rob-black-s-retail-stock-report?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">27637</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Barron's reports <strong>Brown-Forman</strong>'s (BF.B) fortunes hinge on Jack Daniel's, which accounts for some two-third of profits. The brand is benefiting from a growing consumer preference for liquor over beer, and a predilection among younger drinkers worldwide for bourbon. Fans argue the stock could top 80 in a year.<!--more--> Class B shares trade for 21 times projected profits. Brown-Forman no longer trades for a big premium to its chief liquor rivals, Diageo (DEO) and Pernod Ricard, though its earnings are likely to grow by double digits in coming years.
</p>
<p>Barron's Online reports in the past 90 days, seven executives and directors from <strong>Anheuser-Busch</strong> (BUD) grossed $33 million disposing of nearly 652,200 shares on the open market, according to Thomson Financial data.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Wed, 21 Feb 2007 07:04:18 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  Barron's reports <strong>Brown-Forman</strong>'s (BF.B) fortunes hinge on Jack Daniel's, which accounts for some two-third of profits. The brand is benefiting from a growing consumer preference for liquor over beer, and a predilection among younger drinkers worldwide for bourbon. Fans argue the stock could top 80 in a year.<!--more--> Class B shares trade for 21 times projected profits. Brown-Forman no longer trades for a big premium to its chief liquor rivals, Diageo (DEO) and Pernod Ricard, though its earnings are likely to grow by double digits in coming years.
</p>
<p>Barron's Online reports in the past 90 days, seven executives and directors from <strong>Anheuser-Busch</strong> (BUD) grossed $33 million disposing of nearly 652,200 shares on the open market, according to Thomson Financial data.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/27637-rob-black-s-retail-stock-report?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ahbif.pk">AHBIF.PK</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/bf.b">BF.B</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cag">CAG</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cao">CAO</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ebay">EBAY</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/kft">KFT</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/unfi">UNFI</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/wmt">WMT</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Rob Black's Consumer Electronic Stock Report</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/27635-rob-black-s-consumer-electronic-stock-report?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">27635</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Barron's reports <strong>Sony's</strong> (SNE) push to improve efficiency will eventually pay off, and investors' decade-long disregard hints at the potential upside should they come around. The sum of Sony's parts would value its ADRs at 64 -- 22% above where they trade today.
</p>
<p>Wedbush Morgan thinks<strong> Electronic Arts</strong>' (ERTS) steep research and development costs should start to fall and since the co uses cash flow for R&D, both cash flow and EPS should swell.  Electronic Arts' revenue from mobile games reached $100 mln in the nine months, up from virtually nil a year ago. It's sure to keep climbing as cellular networks speed up and handsets get better at displaying games.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Wed, 21 Feb 2007 06:42:01 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  Barron's reports <strong>Sony's</strong> (SNE) push to improve efficiency will eventually pay off, and investors' decade-long disregard hints at the potential upside should they come around. The sum of Sony's parts would value its ADRs at 64 -- 22% above where they trade today.
</p>
<p>Wedbush Morgan thinks<strong> Electronic Arts</strong>' (ERTS) steep research and development costs should start to fall and since the co uses cash flow for R&D, both cash flow and EPS should swell.  Electronic Arts' revenue from mobile games reached $100 mln in the nine months, up from virtually nil a year ago. It's sure to keep climbing as cellular networks speed up and handsets get better at displaying games.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/27635-rob-black-s-consumer-electronic-stock-report?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aapl">AAPL</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/erts">ERTS</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/rimm">RIMM</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/sne">SNE</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/uvn">UVN</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Rob Black's Technology Stock Report</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/27634-rob-black-s-technology-stock-report?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">27634</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<strong>Wind River</strong> (WIND) has acquired the intellectual property including patents, copyrights, trademarks and associated product rights for RTLinux, a hard real-time Linux technology developed by Finite State Machine Labs. <!--more-->Wind River also acquired rights to future runtime revenue streams for RTLinux customers in the embedded applications field. 
</p>
<p>Canaccord Adams downgrades <strong>iRobot</strong> (IRBT) to Hold. The downgrade is based on a lack of visibility into sustained growth and the firm remains concerned about potential benefits from a high level of spending to educate consumers.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Wed, 21 Feb 2007 06:17:34 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  <strong>Wind River</strong> (WIND) has acquired the intellectual property including patents, copyrights, trademarks and associated product rights for RTLinux, a hard real-time Linux technology developed by Finite State Machine Labs. <!--more-->Wind River also acquired rights to future runtime revenue streams for RTLinux customers in the embedded applications field. 
</p>
<p>Canaccord Adams downgrades <strong>iRobot</strong> (IRBT) to Hold. The downgrade is based on a lack of visibility into sustained growth and the firm remains concerned about potential benefits from a high level of spending to educate consumers.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/27634-rob-black-s-technology-stock-report?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cown">COWN</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/irbt">IRBT</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/sndk">SNDK</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/wind">WIND</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Garmin Cashes in on Holiday PND Sales</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/27266-garmin-cashes-in-on-holiday-pnd-sales?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">27266</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Portable Navigation Devices [PNDs] were clearly a “hot” item over the holiday season, and <strong> Garmin (GRMN) </strong>benefited as expected. Sales within Garmin’s automotive/mobile segment, nearly 73% of the corporate total, increased by 173% to $445 million, measurably eclipsing the 112% increase we were anticipating for the unit’s year-over-year growth. The outdoor segment increased by 16%, in-line with estimates, but the aviation and marine segments continued to struggle posting a 3.6% increase and a decline of 11.3%, respectively.<!--more-->
</p>
<p>Management’s initial revenue guidance for 2007 was very strong, with sales targeted at $2.5 billion, representing 41.3% year over year growth (Street consensus was $2.2 billion).  Management believes that all businesses will perform well, with the outdoor, aviation, and marine segments targeted for 20% top line growth, and the automotive segment expected to generate better-than 50% revenue growth for the year.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 16 Feb 2007 03:18:45 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  Portable Navigation Devices [PNDs] were clearly a “hot” item over the holiday season, and <strong> Garmin (GRMN) </strong>benefited as expected. Sales within Garmin’s automotive/mobile segment, nearly 73% of the corporate total, increased by 173% to $445 million, measurably eclipsing the 112% increase we were anticipating for the unit’s year-over-year growth. The outdoor segment increased by 16%, in-line with estimates, but the aviation and marine segments continued to struggle posting a 3.6% increase and a decline of 11.3%, respectively.<!--more-->
</p>
<p>Management’s initial revenue guidance for 2007 was very strong, with sales targeted at $2.5 billion, representing 41.3% year over year growth (Street consensus was $2.2 billion).  Management believes that all businesses will perform well, with the outdoor, aviation, and marine segments targeted for 20% top line growth, and the automotive segment expected to generate better-than 50% revenue growth for the year.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/27266-garmin-cashes-in-on-holiday-pnd-sales?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/grmn">GRMN</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Rob Black's Media Stock Report</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/27035-rob-black-s-media-stock-report?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">27035</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<strong>FoxNews.com</strong> (NWS) reports the Beatles songs — all of them — will be offered for downloading soon. That's what Neil Aspinall, the head of Apple Corps and the man who's protected the Beatles legacy for the last 40 years — said over the weekend.<!--more-->
</p>
<p><strong>Yahoo</strong> (YHOO), the world's largest consumer e-mail provider, said it has embedded instant messaging features inside its e-mail program, bridging a generational divide that has confused many users.   Heavy Internet users have long toggled between e-mail and instant messaging services.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Wed, 14 Feb 2007 07:57:22 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  <strong>FoxNews.com</strong> (NWS) reports the Beatles songs — all of them — will be offered for downloading soon. That's what Neil Aspinall, the head of Apple Corps and the man who's protected the Beatles legacy for the last 40 years — said over the weekend.<!--more-->
</p>
<p><strong>Yahoo</strong> (YHOO), the world's largest consumer e-mail provider, said it has embedded instant messaging features inside its e-mail program, bridging a generational divide that has confused many users.   Heavy Internet users have long toggled between e-mail and instant messaging services.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/27035-rob-black-s-media-stock-report?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/nws">NWS</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/omc">OMC</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/yhoo">YHOO</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Rob Black's Technology Stock Report</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/27034-rob-black-s-technology-stock-report?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">27034</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<strong>Alcatel Lucent’s</strong> (ALU) <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/26592">4th quarter</a> ended 2006 on a low point in terms of revs, Gross Margins, Operating Margins, and EPS.<!--more--> Because of 4th quarter 2006's 16%Year/Year drop in revenues, 31.9% GM, and 0.5% OM, 2006 revenues declined 2% Year/Year and GM and OM averaged 36.9% and 5.6%. 2005 GM and OM were 39.6% and 7.6%. 
</p>
<p>Management indicated that 1st quarter 2007 revenues would decline at less than a typical seasonal rate from an already low 4th quarter 2006. This is a decline despite the addition of <strong>Nortel's </strong>(NT) UMTS revs in 1st quarter 2007. Because most of 2007 merger synergies will take place in 2nd half 2007, analysts do not see much COGS and opex improvement  in 1st quarter 2007 and look for potential mixed results for GM and OM relative to 2006 averages given ALU's high degree of operating leverage. Management guided for ~5% Year/Year revenue growth in 2007. This is off a low 2006 base and includes the addition of Nortel's UMTS revs (revenues start in 2007, adds ~ 130b.p.). In other words, ALU's Year/Year organic rev guidance is actually ~3-4%, compared to peers like Ericsson (ERIC) and <strong>Nokia</strong> (NOK) which we see growing infrastructure revenues 7% and 7% respectively.
</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Wed, 14 Feb 2007 07:49:30 -0500</pubDate>
      <author>Rob Black</author>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<img src='http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/robblack.jpg' align="left" hspace="10" vspace="6" width="78" height="103" border='1' /><strong><a href="http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/">Rob Black</a> submits: </strong>  <strong>Alcatel Lucent’s</strong> (ALU) <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/26592">4th quarter</a> ended 2006 on a low point in terms of revs, Gross Margins, Operating Margins, and EPS.<!--more--> Because of 4th quarter 2006's 16%Year/Year drop in revenues, 31.9% GM, and 0.5% OM, 2006 revenues declined 2% Year/Year and GM and OM averaged 36.9% and 5.6%. 2005 GM and OM were 39.6% and 7.6%. 
</p>
<p>Management indicated that 1st quarter 2007 revenues would decline at less than a typical seasonal rate from an already low 4th quarter 2006. This is a decline despite the addition of <strong>Nortel's </strong>(NT) UMTS revs in 1st quarter 2007. Because most of 2007 merger synergies will take place in 2nd half 2007, analysts do not see much COGS and opex improvement  in 1st quarter 2007 and look for potential mixed results for GM and OM relative to 2006 averages given ALU's high degree of operating leverage. Management guided for ~5% Year/Year revenue growth in 2007. This is off a low 2006 base and includes the addition of Nortel's UMTS revs (revenues start in 2007, adds ~ 130b.p.). In other words, ALU's Year/Year organic rev guidance is actually ~3-4%, compared to peers like Ericsson (ERIC) and <strong>Nokia</strong> (NOK) which we see growing infrastructure revenues 7% and 7% respectively.
</p><br/><a href='http://seekingalpha.com/article/27034-rob-black-s-technology-stock-report?source=feed'>Complete Story &raquo;</a>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/alu">ALU</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/dell">DELL</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/nt">NT</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/sne">SNE</category>
      <category type="author" link="http://seekingalpha.com/author/rob-black">Rob Black</category>
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