Rob Viglione

Rob Viglione
Contributor since: 2009
Company: Manhattan Beach Real Estate Brokerage
If a cartel tried cornering the BTC market by hoarding coin, those coin would be equivalent to taken out of circulation for that duration, which leaves increased purchasing power (lower prices for the remaining goods and services denominated in BTC) to those BTC holders who actually use it as currency. Because of the divisibility of BTC and it's exponentially growing adoption, cornering this market is a fool's wish.
It's tough to see the exponential trend when 150,000+ years of evolution has trained us to think linearly.
Another long shot is that Chinese management are just crooks, picking up shares on the cheap while everything tanks; not likely, but one of those 1% probability scenarios.
Thanks for sharing your research in this article. I was on the fence, holding to see whether they make their February coupon payment, but by then I realize my entire position could be wiped out. Just folded today. I'll be watching the company closely for an entry point if management changes its tune, but that's not looking likely.
This isn't the first time I've been ripped off doing business in China. It seems as though defrauding foreigners is a national past time. It will come around to bite them in the a$$, though.
If CMED's financial statements weren't fraudulent, this would be the buy of a lifetime!
An issue that can hopefully one day be resolved in economics is that quality data only dates back to relatively modern times; we do not have sufficient data to claim that a simplistic push-pull economic theory, like that of Keynes's General Theory, works beyond the narrow range of economic state from which it was derived.
Keynes`s General Theory is readily demonstrated to be inapplicable in the extreme case of relegating 100% of economic activity to government action, and currency dilution; actually, anything close to approaching the extreme would tear apart any society.
You cannot generate prosperity into perpetuity by deficit spending, and currency dilution; those methods merely borrow prosperity from the future, but must be repaid. My hunch is that the present state of economic malaise has already borrowed too much prosperity from the future to make furthering that prescription sustainable.
MSFT is like a utility stock that has the possibility of one day maturing an R&D product line ...low risk like utility, but some positive upside like a tech stock. Not a bad combo...
The Fed has backed itself into a corner; they can either continue down the path of creating money to ease deficits and desperately cling to growth targets, or they risk being held responsible for the big crash that would occur if this stimulus-dependent economy were to have its crack supply cut....
Regulatory burdens have their own compounding effects (negative) that are often times intangible, but certainly accumulate over time.
You'd think that with all of the volatility, political uncertainty, and mounting risks of continued economic decline, the simplest thing to do would be to start peeling away regulations!
Sadly, each new regulation creates new regulators; entrenched interests who have their own incentives to grow....more like a disease than anything else.
Any takers on how this will impact mortgage yields?
In such a negative attitude environment this last week, it's refreshing to hear a different, relatively upbeat perspective. When the market first started crashing in 2007 I quickly turned crazy bear, maintaining that position for far too long into 2010...I've since grown up and realized that the world doesn't always conform to the models in my mind.
The U.S. financial position is precarious, and on the path to continued deterioration. My hope is that leaders will emerge in the mess to start marching us in the right direction; at best, that would give us the chance for a soft landing, and long term balance sheet repair.
At first I was excited thinking that foreclosure rates are down, but then...hmmm, just because banks are taking longer to process? Not the best news in the world...
This is not good for consumer balance sheets, or for velocity of money --> inflation
This is definitely not something the retail CRE sector needs right now!
China is nuts to continue to lock itself into the US debt-death spiral. They'll eventually learn the lesson that every creditor suffers when they throw more debt at delinquent borrowers.
Buy until the U.S. government can balance a budget....
These jack@$$es need to learn to live within a budget. Selling assets will only last so long...
Moderation is the watchword, but there's certainly mounting risk to treasuries. Diversifying out and, and should, be a moderate process, not one in which you run for the exits only to find you've actually increased portfolio risk.
Why would the feds ever miss a payment when they have the power to print?
Fight on, Amazon!
And how many people in CA base their livelihoods on AMZN online sales? Pushing these people out of business, or out of state, isn't exactly going to boost the already ailing economy here...
When the feds can balance a budget I'll consider selling gold. Until then, each dip is a buying opportunity.
I wish I could say I am shocked the Fed is adding new borrowing categories to Consumer Credit calculations...nonethe... that's just underhanded.
#endthefed
I don't understand what's so hard, or wrong, with having a currency that doesn't expand in supply beyond the rate of growth in economic output?
Fiscal and monetary policy "cures" are running out of steam. My guess is that they only work for a given range of balance sheet leverage.
Gold will be a safe play until the feds can balance a budget...
If you do a rain dance long enough it'll always work.
Love the theories, and tend to agree with both of them.
#1 shows complexity of economics...many factors contribute
#2 refinancing is always an option, which reduces risk of locking in rates that are too high
Definitely agree that there are many more factors that drive housing prices, which is the point of the article. I've been hearing mounting concern about risk of mortgage rate increase to prices, so the linear regression was intentional, meant to show that there's more going on than just borrowing rates.
I'm not bold (or crazy) enough to predict which way prices will go :)
Data source:
www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
I can't find specific reference to which interest rates is used as the "long rate," but a quick eye ball comparison seems like it is 30-year treasury yield.
Agreed that the title is preposterous! The editors modified my original title, which was a question of "how" interest rates impact home prices.
Rates certainly effect individual buying behavior in the short run, but my big point was that there are many more factors that play into real estate economics. The message is that the world won't end if/when rates go higher; people will still buy homes.
I certainly doubt Obama would be willing, or able, to make real cuts in programs that are widely popular with his voting base. It's at least refreshing to hear him make the right commentary...my fingers are crossed he follows through.
Commodities priced in USD cannot forever remain decoupled from USD. Only a matter of time before continued devaluation of paper boosts nominal metal prices.