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Rob Viglione  

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  • Debt Deflation, Money Creation and the Aftermath [View article]
    What is wrong with you? Do you really sit around all day trying to pick internet fights?

    The article link was a reproduction on my site of Tytler's theory. It was meant to inform my readers of his work. At no point did I claim to originate any of it. Your claim is offensive.

    This is insane: "I guess this is the point where I say you're no patriot if you say that America's deteriorating."

    Patriotism includes questioning those who wield power, defending liberty, and upholding the Constitution. As a prior military officer I took that oath. It is not patriotic to blindly accept the whims of certain people who happen to attain office.

    Regarding the Constitution, it is a limiting document. Its purpose is to clearly define and limit federal authority. The federal government has authority to operate within its scope, no more. Oddly, funding federal projects to develop the Internet are not included in the document.

    Since we live in a world where some people think they know best on how others should live, we will always have individuals who attempt to usurp the legal authority granted to government. Patriots stand against people like you, reminding the rest of us that no matter how eloquent an argument you may derive for any particular idea, the concepts of freedom and liberty outweigh anything else.

    On Apr 14 02:37 PM Vox Rationalis wrote:

    > Rob Viglione wrote:
    Apr 14, 2009. 04:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Universe of Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
    When times are tough rational agents reduce expenditures, work harder, and conserve cash. Rational companies in this environment should reign in dividend payments, hoard reserves, and take advantage of competitive weaknesses in their product markets.

    The bad companies are the ones that attempt to retain dividend levels for show, or for the sake of it. Be careful of this sort of irresponsible management.

    When analyzing dividend yields for long-term investors, try to think about how the company will emerge from the downturn. If stronger, or generally in tact, consider pre-downturn dividend streams in your calculations.
    Apr 4, 2009. 01:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Near Overbought Levels [View article]
    There's two competing forces in the market right now: the real economy and the fake one being pushed hard by governments around the world.

    GDP = G + C + I + (x-i)

    If you believe that increasing government spending ("G"), and artificially "jump-starting" consumer spending ("C") through federal tax confiscations, borrowing, and flooding the world with more dollars is a good thing then you should buy hard into this rally.

    If you don't believe in Big Brother's solutions then back off, and wait on the sidelines until the real world economy shows signs of recovery. If you're really opposed to what government is doing, then short the heck out of this rally...I am.
    Apr 4, 2009. 01:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Ignore Bernanke's Bell [View article]
    Debt is ultimately servitude. Not only will Americans' living standards contract, but so too will our influence around the world. The Chinese know this, as evidenced by recent military aggression the South China Sea.

    Wait, is "aggression" really the word when all they did was stop our spy ship from spying on them in their own territory?

    Bottom line: Expect the Chinese to be increasingly hostile to U.S. encroachment on their territorial ambitions. They will likely be increasingly so as they start losing hundreds of billions in paper value of U.S. debt instruments.
    Mar 22, 2009. 03:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Snapback May Not Be So Snappy [View article]
    The characteristics of the snapback depend on the nature of its causes. If there's a big system-changing event like the repeal of mark-to-market standards (www.cnbc.com/id/295499...) then there could truly be some SNAP in the near term.

    Now if we're talking about a snap back into a bull market...well, yeah that will likely take a good deal of time and manifest along the lines you've described.
    Mar 8, 2009. 04:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should We Really Nationalize Banks - Or Privatize Congress? [View article]
    I like all the suggestions, but would add that we reduce corporate tax rates all the way to zero. It's counterproductive to tax business and capital, and makes even less sense when we realize there is no such real entity as a "corporation". Rather, corporations are merely legal entities that represent real people who are already taxed: workers, shareholders, and consumers.

    The only reason taxing companies has been enabled for so long is that stakeholders are one step or more removed from the tax man. Employees don't realize their wages are depressed, shareholders come to expect taxes on their profits, adjusting for after-tax targets, and consumers think of rising prices as just part of life. Worse, unemployed workers have no way of realizing they are unemployed partly because of the tax system!

    It's all perverse, unfair, and renders the country less competitive and poorer in the long run.

    On Feb 22 11:37 AM Steve in Greensboro wrote:

    > Thanks, Mr. Viglione. You have nailed it. The solutions are:<br/>
    >
    > 1) Restrict the Fed's ability to debase the currency as it did post
    > 9/11/01 and as it is currently doing now.
    >
    > 2) Privatize or liquidate FNM and FRE and prevent the U.S. government
    > from interfering in the mortgage market.
    >
    > 3) Reduce top marginal income tax rates. The U.S. currently has
    > one of the most redistributive income taxes in the world.
    >
    > 4) Reduce the corporate income tax rates. The U.S. currently has
    > one of the highest corporate rates in the world (and the most punitive
    > system).
    >
    > The likelihood of any of this happening for the next 2-4 years is
    > zero. That's why sane investors are out of the equities.
    Feb 22, 2009. 01:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TIPS Can Help Improve the Fiscal Situation [View article]
    It is almost guaranteed that 10-year inflation will exceed the 1% per annum rate, particularly with the insane pace of money creation these days. Fiat currencies are strained, so hedging inflation at this point would not be a bad idea. If TIPS are implying 1% inflation for that period I'd say this is more arbitrage than anything else.
    Feb 22, 2009. 05:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Current 'Message' [View article]
    My portfolio is very long gold for the same reasons presented in this article and commentary, but I'm still opening small positions in GLD puts as a hedge. With so much emotion on both sides of the gold-inflation argument, it pays to do a little hedging just in case your side doesn't win.
    Feb 13, 2009. 01:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adding Up the White House Pay Freeze [View article]
    Paul, you're absolutely right. Public employees earn compensation far out of line with market factors. Their unions-at the local, state, and federal levels-have hijacked our country and are robbing the private sector. This cannot go on, as evidenced by California's pending bankruptcy. My prediction is that 2009 will witness a wave of municipal bankruptcies. Of course the federal government will bail them all out, but the result will only bring us all closer to the abyss.


    On Jan 24 08:28 AM Paul Price wrote:

    > It's a good thing to declare a wage freeze as it sets the tone for
    > all overpaid union government workers.
    >
    > Civil service is now among the paid total compensation jobs in all
    > of America when you consider wages, benefits and pensions. Almost
    > no private sector employees earn what government workers now get
    > paid.
    >
    > This will eventually bankrupt the nation.
    Jan 24, 2009. 02:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protectionism by Any Other Name [View article]
    We lose jobs and industry overseas because of decades of bad policies, and government intervention in the economy. America was once the most competitive country in the world, but has since suffered from expensive labor laws, unions holding us all hostage, complex accounting requirements, and a hostile tax regimen. Businesses leave for a reason. This is the root cause of the decline in American production. The other side of the trade equation can be explained by rampant consumerism rotting our culture.


    On Jan 24 01:03 PM biomedlives wrote:

    > I ask James Kwak, Robert Weinstein, and other free trade advocates
    > if they believe our long-running trade deficit is a problem and,
    > if they do, how they propose to fix it. I'm not a fan of protectionism,
    > but I speculate that NAFTA and every other trade agreement the U.
    > S. has signed in recent years has made our trade deficit worse.
    >
    >
    > If the people whose in manufacturing and software programming went
    > oversease still had those jobs instead of lower-paying positions
    > with poor benefits, they might not have to borrow to pay for their
    > lifestyles.
    Jan 24, 2009. 02:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Where Credit Is Due [View article]
    The "smart money" usually bets against the crowd.


    On Jan 18 10:28 AM patio wrote:

    > Not at all true. Our currency is holding its value, increasing actually,
    > and T-Bills are still being purchased. The world has voted with all
    > our problems, we are still a better bet than the Euro, etc.
    > Right or wrong, the smart money is betting on the US.
    >
    >
    > On Jan 18 09:26 AM xerxes317 wrote:
    Jan 18, 2009. 04:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Where Credit Is Due [View article]
    Even more importantly than producing things American want, we need to produce things of value to consumers in other countries. This is the only way to repay our debts through decades of trade deficits. Foreigners hold our paper for a reason, which is to reclaim a portion of our national output at some time in the future.


    On Jan 18 10:07 AM Crude Oil Trader wrote:

    > Peter is dead on when he says we need to produce. It is that simple
    > people. You need to produce something here in the U.S. that another
    > American needs and sell it to them. It is that simple! We have become
    > the new Europe. Europe relied on the little worker bees in the U.S.
    > and imported workers to rebuild after World war II, mostly from Turkey.
    > Now we have raised multiple generations of young people that are
    > to good or important to work. China is our worker bees and we are
    > importing our labor from the south. That is where all of our wealth
    > is headed. Throw in middle east oil, what do you expect. Maybe we
    > could start with becoming a natural gas exporter, can you just imagine!
    Jan 18, 2009. 04:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Where Credit Is Due [View article]
    Do lenders in Zimbabwe have a higher propensity to lend? Is that why Mugabi's government is printing trillion denominated bills? Hyper inflation comes from government printing, not bank lending or velocity of money increases. Just plain and simple printing.


    On Jan 18 09:24 AM patio wrote:

    > The great Irving Fisher agrees, George. You cannot get inflation
    > when lenders won't lend ( or at least go back to sane criteria )
    > and borrowers neither qualify nor WANT to borrow. All the inflationista's
    > have the same argument, but, but, they are printing so much money.
    > But thus far, no velocity increase- we should have seen something
    > by now, eh?
    > The other kind of "inflation", goods increase in price, would come
    > from our dollar devaluing vs. other fiat currencies. Not happening
    > either.
    >
    >
    >
    > On Jan 18 08:49 AM George Kesarios wrote:
    Jan 18, 2009. 04:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Expert: Friday Wrap [View article]
    Every dollar eaten up by government securities means a dollar less invested in the private sector to fuel real growth. The irony is that the flight to safety will further erode the economy's ability to fix itself. That is, unless you believe in Soviet-style central planning.

    If government does manage to sap up about $2 trillion a year to fund its deficits then we are in trouble. If it fails to convince enough private buyers to pick up this paper in exchange for real output then the Fed will simply seize a greater slice of the economy by printing more money. Either option is miserable for the private sector.
    Jan 17, 2009. 01:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama's 'Buy American' Plan May Meet China's Export-Led Growth in 2009 [View article]
    We're seeing a general breakdown of the last couple decades of "free trade." Reneging trade agreements, and providing MASSIVE subsidies to domestic industry (TARP and trillions in other bailouts) can only be met with animosity abroad. This is not the broad multilateral cooperation we were promised and will only get worse. Consider the new found influence of the labor lobby and its collusion with domestic industry in search of handouts and we see there is only one inevitable outcome...
    Jan 14, 2009. 11:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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