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Rob Viglione  

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  • Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao says China will find it difficult to meet its 4% inflation target this year but expects it to come in below 5%. In May, inflation was 5.5%. Wen, who is on a trip to Europe, also forecast that the economy would grow above 8%-9%.  [View news story]
    Chinese inflation will be reported at whatever the government wants it to be.
    Jun 27, 2011. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Can't We Cut Our Way to Prosperity? [View article]
    Nor can we spend our way to prosperity...
    Jun 27, 2011. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Mortgage REITs Yielding Over 13% [View article]
    The yields are awesome, but yield usually is commensurate with risk.
    Jun 26, 2011. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bit of Good Economic News [View article]
    I've never been an fan of measuring spending as a gauge of prosperity. Any fool can spend beyond his means, but that doesn't mean he's prosperous.
    Jun 26, 2011. 02:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Single-family mortgage delinquencies are still on the decline, slipping for a sixth straight month, says Freddie Mac in its monthly report. May delinquencies dropped to 3.53%, down from a year-ago 4.06%. Two months of increases in the rate last year broke a three-year string of sequential declines. Refinancing is 58% of total volume, down from 70%.  [View news story]
    Hopefully we've hit the inflection point in delinquencies...
    Jun 24, 2011. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Mongolia really is the land of opportunity," says a U.K. banker. The commodity boom and 21 years of democracy are bringing the trappings of wealth to the country. Sports cars sell briskly, though there are few roads to drive them on, and a Louis Vuitton store opens in downtown Ulan Bator, where a statue of Lenin once stood.  [View news story]
    Reminds me there's still hope for us all!
    Jun 24, 2011. 05:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "I'm a little more sympathetic to central bankers than I was 10 years ago," says Fed chief Bernanke in response to a Japanese reporter bringing up then-Professor Bernanke's call 10 years ago for the BOJ to get its act in gear. Press conference over.  [View news story]
    I'm not...
    Jun 23, 2011. 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A couple of key numbers from CoreLogic's latest report on housing's shadow inventory: 1) 1.7M homes are seriously delinquent, in the foreclosure process or not currently listed for sale - down from 1.9M a year ago, reflecting fewer newly delinquent loans; 2) ~2M current negative equity loans are more than 50% or $150,000 upside down.  [View news story]
    The last thing this market needs is for even a fraction of those 2M negative equity homes to default
    Jun 23, 2011. 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commercial real estate prices dropped 3.7% M/M and 13% Y/Y in April, according to a Moody’s index that is now 49% below its Oct. 2007 peak. The strong get stronger and the weak get weaker, as major markets such as NYC and DC have recovered more than half of post-peak losses, while distressed transactions bounce along the bottom.  [View news story]
    At some point cash flows are going to warrant valuations and we should see a bottom. I'd be a charlatan for trying to predict that price point...
    Jun 22, 2011. 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A "lost decade?" The U.S. has already had that and more, argues Stephen Gordon, who shows real per capita net worth is back to 1999 levels. Housing is even uglier, with per capita equity retreating to 1978's figure. A Canadian, Gordon compares the data to his country, and happily declares, "Canada is not the U.S."  [View news story]
    That's just really really sad...but to be expected. You don't manufacture real growth by massive government spending on credit and printing money to subsidize it.
    Jun 22, 2011. 11:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "We are approaching the danger zone where the debt/GDP ratio (87%) becomes increasingly closely watched," warns the head of the French public audit office. President Sarkozy aims to bring the annual deficit down to 3% of GDP by 2013, from last year's 7.1%.  [View news story]
    I thought this article was about the U.S....I suppose we could easily replace "French" with "American" in this case.
    Jun 22, 2011. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April FHFA Housing Price Index: +0.8% M/M vs. -0.4% in March (revised). It's the first monthly increase since May 2010. Prices -5.7% Y/Y.  [View news story]
    This is spring buying season; you'd expect a M/M increase. The real story is that the increase is lower than "normal," and Y/Y prices are still sliding.
    Jun 22, 2011. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facing insolvency, and believing its pension fund to be massively overfunded, the USPS will suspend employee retirement contributions for the remainder of 2011, saving $800M. The larger issue is a $5.5B health benefit payment due September 30, which the USPS will not be able to make.  [View news story]
    My bet would be on the feds & Fed stepping in to support. And down goes the USD, yet again...
    Jun 22, 2011. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • W.P. Carey: An Impressive 'Black SWAN' in a Net Lease Wrapper [View article]
    Looks like these guys weathered the '08 storm much better than their industry peers...good pick.
    Jun 22, 2011. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banks and other lenders are engaged in an increasingly pitched fight for some corporate borrowers, raising concerns that the banks are not charging enough to cover the risk they are taking on. They're "climbing over each other" to increase loan volumes, says a ratings firm exec, worrying that banks are relaxing their lending standards to make more loans.  [View news story]
    The entire banking system has been under-capitalized for the risks it has assumed, principally as a consequence of federal support. Taxpayers should not be used as a crutch to let reckless banks gamble on.
    Jun 21, 2011. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment