Rob Viglione

Commercial Property Goes South

Commercial real estate has a good deal of devaluation ahead, whether or not current owners acknowledge it. Just because they refuse to sell at market prices does not mean their properties have not declined in value.

Deals will be had with patience. Power is definitely back in the buyers' court here.

Something investors might want to consider is delving back into the single-family residential range. Yields are becoming more attractive and risk can be diversified through multiple acquisitions in diverse markets.

Mid-April Short Interest

Short volume reduction is likey result of many players squeezed out of the trade.

I feel more comfortable shorting when few are doing so.

Time to Invest in REITs?

I wrote an article on 12/27/08 about commercial real estate developers lining up at the TARP trough, warning "that thousands of office complexes, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies.” Something about $530 billion commercial mortgages coming due in 2009 for which financing is unavailable.

Unless these peachy fellows secure a half trillion from the federal government they are not likely to be attractive investments.

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