Rob Viglione

Mid-April Short Interest

Short volume reduction is likey result of many players squeezed out of the trade.

I feel more comfortable shorting when few are doing so.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

The one thing I do know is that we should not have seen hundreds of billions in global equity capital destroyed b/c of a bunch of swine.

Friday's Options Recap

I have to admit that I'm long TBT, as well. Been bearing on treasuries for some time, but thus far have not done well.

Friday's Options Recap

Rapidly declining VIX once again makes it a good portfolio insurance bet. People should consider protecting recent stock gains, either by divesting some positions or hedging what they continue to hold.

Long VIX is a great hedge on stock downside. Also note that VIX is trading below 200-day moving average ~ 43

Bond Expert: Friday Wrap

I bet GS and WFC will both pursue new debt issues, particularly since they are doing all they can to divest from federal control.

Not surprising that CA is attempting to bring in more debt capital while it's still possible. The State's fiscal position is deteriorating every day, despite being able to still garner debt capital. The tax base is fast shrinking and there is a general sense of capital flight, particularly from hard pressed entrepreneurs.

The Bonus Tax: The Redistribution of Both Wealth And Talent

Increasing political hostility to wealth and productivity will have dire long-term consequences. Many people I know are actively getting capital out of the country, while others develop escape plans for themselves.

This is not the America we have come to believe in. The social contract with our government is fast eroding.

Obsessing About Global Bank Stocks in the Post-Lehman World

The German Cabinet has already set the stage for nationalization:

online.wsj.com/article...

No wonder why DB is falling hard. Ironically, American banks appear to have higher "nationalization premiums" built into prices. Do investors really consider the U.S. more Socialist than Germany?

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Note that 30-Year Treasuries peaked in December, reaching 2.519%. This corresponds with the surge in foreign purchases, but note that current prices have declined quite a bit, now yielding 3.52%. This would indicate foreign purchases are trailing off, as expected.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Excellent commentary. Politicians love to come to power in times of "crisis." Doesn't matter that it was caused by politicians, since the incoming ones of course are omniscient and know exactly how to fix everything. The answer is always more regulation, more taxes, and more spending on our behalf. In essence, it is the call to cede increasing power from the individual to public domain. Non of this hog wash will fix anything; rather, it is why we now stand on the precipice...

As far as American's AAA rating...there is no way S&P will downgrade the government's credit rating before the market tears it apart itself. S&P must answer to its masters, and those masters are sitting in Capitol Hill with nice suits spending as much of our money as they can. A credit downgrade would put an inconvenient end to that spending orgy...not likely to happen.


On Jan 14 08:15 AM PrudentMan, CFA wrote:

> Consumer Confidence? Why would anyone be confident in the economy,
> which is only our fifth worst since the end of WWII, when the, Fed
> Administration, Congress and especially Obama all tell everyone it
> is going to get worse? In the previous recessions the government
> pretty much kept their mouths shut and did their job instead of being
> much too vocal
>
> Why are all the Fed members talking so much. In my fifty years as
> a professional investor I never heard so much said by people who
> proved they know so little. If all these rear-mirror economists,
> who are behind the curve, would spend their time doing some analysis
> instead of brushing up their resumes they may have seen the problem
> with credit years ago. Because the non-discounting stock markets
> kept going up all these people were just Pollyandas.
>
> Whey is Obama and Congress so vocal? These Socialists see and opportunity
> in the false "worse receission since the Great Depression, and I
> lived in that time that was exacerbated to unnecessarily last ten
> years, they can make the greatest theft of taxpayer money in history.
> As we all know, those who have the money have the control.
>
> If the Fed Congress and the Administration would have said that the
> Free Market will work things out so property will revert to their
> rightful owner this recession would be over. The promise of bailing
> out loser at the cost of winners is very far from Free Market Capitalism
> as it is Socialist Capitalism. Are problems started decades ago
> and the Fed and Congress could very easily have reighned it in with
> the laws on the books.
>
> I think this is the best time for rational investors support and
> end encourage Congressional Term Limits.