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Rob Wilson  

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  • Saratoga Resources: High-Risk/High-Reward Energy Play [View article]
    Bret, I'm curious what you think SARA's NAV is and how that comes out in NAV/share. I calc'd NAV in an article I wrote about SARA a year plus ago (on SA) and came up with a significantly lower number than the company. But those numbers are now a year stale. I think NAV should exclude the carrying (if not market) value of debt. I'm going off memory here but I don't think the company management did that. Doing so lowers NAV/share significantly. Did you calc a value consistent with the company?
    Jun 4, 2014. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy: Expect Lower Dividends In 2014 [View article]
    Kevcl6750, I've had trouble finding Bakken and WCS prices like EIA.gov keeps for WTI and Brent. The best sources I've seen are investor decks for NTI (pg. 11 of NTI's latest investor presentation: http://bit.ly/1fAmL7r) and Valero, @PlattsOil on Twitter - I see them reference the various spreads occasionally, and RBN Energy. I hope that helps!
    Feb 13, 2014. 01:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    Len,
    I don't understand your question. I was very up front in that the *only* article I read as far as 3rd party commentary goes was Vitaliy's - I stated that clearly. I believe I was able to assess my own view vs. one separate view but doing that against several articles is so much more difficult - where do other's thoughts start vs. my own becomes harder with more 3rd party input. Every other source I used specific to the company was company-produced. Industry research was broad and not company-specific. I think a purchase at about $24/unit is reasonable and I calculate a low $30s/unit target price using my current model assumptions (I have no idea what assumptions/price targets any other person used because I cannot/did not see them). Did I answer your question? If not, let me know and I'll try to clear up further.
    Jan 20, 2014. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    g8trgr8t, how would you model/account for the change in the GP/LP ownership change?
    Jan 19, 2014. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    Anasazi101, no problem about the feedback, I post here because the back and forth is engaging, generally speaking. I believe the logistical framework will improve over time, including pipelines and selective exports but this will take time. In the meantime, Bakken crude production is increasing significantly, faster than the logistical network can handle.

    Thanks for reading!
    Jan 19, 2014. 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    Claytower, see my conversation with Bandit and I think that will answer your question.
    Jan 19, 2014. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    Bandit,
    True he focused on Bakken, presumably because the play has exploded in production over the past few years. While slightly less than 50% of Canadian crude is processed, the significant increase in Bakken is favorable for NTI, all else equal in my opinion.

    http://1.usa.gov/1aCmiOB

    WNR's buyout from ACON and TPG (GP and common units) is news but how should this be accounted for in a valuation model? I'm not sure so I didn't include it as a significant variable. I've see no indication about how the business will change from the change in ownership in the near-term.
    Jan 19, 2014. 06:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    Ruffdog, you are correct. My point here is that an excess supply creates downward pressure on prices. And until the P/L structure, and likely some easing of export restraints are in place over time, the excess supply will likely continue to put downward pressure on WTI prices. RBN Energy does a wonderful job of explaining the dynamics in detail.
    Jan 19, 2014. 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    Thanks for your comments Caymagnate. You're right it's a volatile security due to the volatility of the underlying business itself. If I remember correctly, my research found that management continues to hedge less over time compared to the time of IPO.
    Jan 19, 2014. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    5bandit5, you're clearly very familiar with NTI and the pricing dynamics associated with the company! I consciously choose not to focus on that dynamic because Vitaliy explained it very well in his article, which I linked to in the first paragraph. I alluded to those prices - Western Canadian Select and North Dakota Light - in my 2nd paragraph but did not go into detail instead focusing on the WTI vs. Brent relationship that Vitaliy did not cover in detail in his article.

    For those not as familiar with the dynamic as 5bandit5, I urge you to read Vitaliy's article and also reference pg. 11 of NTI's latest investor presentation: http://bit.ly/1fAmL7r
    Jan 19, 2014. 09:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    Mike the Elder, thank you for pointing this out. In my banking days, M = millions but the energy industry (http://1.usa.gov/N6G6sV) seems to use M for thousands and MM for millions - I think that's an engineering convention. So in this article, M = thousands. I appreciate you raising the question.
    Jan 19, 2014. 06:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy Prefers Cushion In Cushing [View article]
    Straitmony, great catch! WTI is West Texas Intermediate, which is what must have been on my mind. The product is actually priced and stored in Cushing, OK. I will submit the change request.
    Jan 19, 2014. 06:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clayton Williams Energy: Small-Cap Oil & Gas Company With Strong Earnings [View article]
    Here is the REN article for your reference: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 8, 2013. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clayton Williams Energy: Small-Cap Oil & Gas Company With Strong Earnings [View article]
    I do not currently own shares in CWEI, I sold out of my position on 6/12/13. Keep in mind I'm buying/selling a small dollar amount. I sold not so much because I didn't like CWEI (the shares appreciated more than 35% since the time I sold) but I liked REN better, which I bought for $7.92 including transaction costs (19% after transaction unrealized gain as of today). Seems I should have stayed long CWEI, huh? Oh well, it's a fun interest but a difficult one. I do think REN could get to $14/share but may that's very much a long-term investment.
    Oct 8, 2013. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clayton Williams Energy: Small-Cap Oil & Gas Company With Strong Earnings [View article]
    bankstocks, thanks for reading and your comment, my apologies for the delay. I see there has been an increase in the security price since your question but I wouldn't have been able to predict that. My day job is keeping me busy at the moment. Based on my original valuation, the price seems reasonable. I will try to update my model and do some reading over the weekend - will let you know if I missed a bit of news that would indicate even more upside than the original analysis.
    Oct 8, 2013. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
36 Comments
15 Likes