Seeking Alpha

Rob Wilson

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  • Clayton Williams Energy: Small-Cap Oil & Gas Company With Strong Earnings [View article]
    Here is the REN article for your reference: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 8 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clayton Williams Energy: Small-Cap Oil & Gas Company With Strong Earnings [View article]
    I do not currently own shares in CWEI, I sold out of my position on 6/12/13. Keep in mind I'm buying/selling a small dollar amount. I sold not so much because I didn't like CWEI (the shares appreciated more than 35% since the time I sold) but I liked REN better, which I bought for $7.92 including transaction costs (19% after transaction unrealized gain as of today). Seems I should have stayed long CWEI, huh? Oh well, it's a fun interest but a difficult one. I do think REN could get to $14/share but may that's very much a long-term investment.
    Oct 8 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clayton Williams Energy: Small-Cap Oil & Gas Company With Strong Earnings [View article]
    bankstocks, thanks for reading and your comment, my apologies for the delay. I see there has been an increase in the security price since your question but I wouldn't have been able to predict that. My day job is keeping me busy at the moment. Based on my original valuation, the price seems reasonable. I will try to update my model and do some reading over the weekend - will let you know if I missed a bit of news that would indicate even more upside than the original analysis.
    Oct 8 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beginning Of A Turning Point For Clayton Williams Energy [View article]
    Valueconscious, thank you for your comment. You are clearly very familiar with Clayton Williams! I agree with all that you're saying and also think the Wolfberry in Andrews County will likely be the asset for sale in 1Q13. Clayton made reference to that in the 3Q12 earnings call although I think it was more of an initial thought than statement of fact.

    I'd view their shift to oil over the last several years as a long term strategic move as you pointed out. They didn't wake up one morning with an excellent asset base - they made a conscious effort to invest a significant amount of capital in oil plays.

    Cutting capex to remain within CFs until cash is raised through an asset sale to pay down debt is more of a tactical move to "unlock" value by generating OCF in excess of debt servicing requirements. So while not a change in the long-term strategic move of the company, I think it was an important tactical move to increase value to shareholders. As you pointed out, this should be a good thing for the stock price.
    Nov 15 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clayton Williams Energy: Small-Cap Oil & Gas Company With Strong Earnings [View article]
    Aretailguy, I view the answer to your question as one of the most important in determining the PV of CWEI. The short answer is I’m not sure. I use a probability weighting for projected revenue and the revenue expected value growth rate is pretty wide given the lack of insight. Based on the information available, CWEI’s acreage is in the oily (north) section of the Eagle Ford shale (Burleson and Lee Counties on the north end of the acreage and Wilson County on the south end). Being in the north is a good thing considering that’s where the oil is. In the 2Q12 earnings call, the tone was that the focus was in the Permian with more attention being focused on the EF in the future with wells under development To provide some perspective, 5% of the ’12 capital budget is allocated to the Austin Chalk/EF play. In the latest investor presentation (8/14/12), the following info was provided. CWEI has five wells drilled and producing in Burleson and Lee Counties. The Balcar well in Lee County has been completed and is under evaluation. Two wells are drilled and producing in Wilson County. I think there is pretty good potential here but I’m just not able to get a narrow range at this point based on the information available.

    Thank you for reading and your question. I will provide more detail at leehillequity.com when it becomes available. If an entire article, I will also post on SA.
    Aug 20 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clayton Williams Energy: Small-Cap Oil & Gas Company With Strong Earnings [View article]
    Thank you for taking the time to read and provide feedback! Also, did not know he ran for Governor in '90.
    Aug 14 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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