Oil’s move above $140 a barrel and the pronouncement by OPEC that oil prices could rise between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer is another hit for US consumers whose budgets are already at the breaking point. In addition, rumors on Tuesday that Israel had bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities resulted in a sharp spike in oil prices, reminding investors how painfully delicate the market is.

While many speculators have lauded the news that Saudi Arabia will increase oil production, oil prices have more than doubled over the past year over rising demand by China and India and supply disruptions in the Middle East. Moreover, there are a number of plausible scenarios—taken from today’s headlines—that could greatly impact world oil prices and take an even greater toll on US consumers. We doubt that these risks are fully priced into the market.