Robert Castellano

Solar Market Declines for First Time Ever

123andy you're absolutely right. In may Seeking Alpha article back in November 2008 "Six Reasons for Cloudy Skies on the Solar Energy Industry" I got beat up quite a bit by people in denial when I predicted the downturn in solar. No one would believe it.
In September 2009 I noted that as many as 50% of solar manufacturers may not survive in 2010. Again I got beat up. Look with happened this month as a few solar companies went out of business. It's just the beginning. Yet no one believes it.

Marketshare for Thin Film Solar to Reach 31% in 2013 from 14% in 2008

There's nothing new in this information.

I projected similar numbers back in September 2008. "Polycrystalline supply to push thin film solar growth"

Copy and paste the link below

www.eetasia.com /ART_8800542990_480200...

Oversupply Issues Plague Solar Manufacturers

I've been saying in my blog on SeekingAlpha for a year that overcapacity was a problem.

In September I wrote a press release entitled "Solar crisis set to hit in 2010, 50% of manufacturers may not survive, says The Information Network" You can read it here - hhttp://digitimes.com/print/a2...

So now it has begun.

Are U.S. Solar Companies Losing Market Share to Their Chinese Competitors?

Kevin, this is not new. I pointed out about the problem in SeekingAlopha on March 31 - "Economic and Technical Factors Create Winners and Losers in the Solar Cell Market" - how the Chinese are the big winners due to subsidies. They get practically free loans and stimulus money. I won't say the naughty word "dumping" here, but they will drive many non-Asian solar manufacturers out of business - read my recent article in my column on TheStreet.com where I discuss details.

Intel Facing a Formidable Foe in ARM

Hi Kris,

Then please tell me what the RIGHT REASONS are.


On Oct 02 10:19 AM Kris Tuttle wrote:

> You are probably right about ARM but for the wrong reasons.

Intel Facing a Formidable Foe in ARM

Hey Paul, SHOW ME THE FACTS. You seem to be in the know, as you said "that's a fact" I've been asking that from Intel for 9 months.


On Oct 02 01:31 AM paul.ottelini wrote:

> What a bunch of lies. I listened to the conference call, and Intel
> is definitely making a very nice profit from Atom processors. And
> they have clearly stated that. Intel cannot make false statements
> since they can get in trouble with the SEC. So I would not doubt
> any of the statements they make. Unfortunately these useless blogs
> allowed by Yahoo on their site could make all types of ridiculous
> statements full of lies and SEC will not do anything about them.
> Well, this comment to your lies asks investors to do some analysis
> themselves and go listen to the conference call by Intel and decide
> for themselves. Again, Intel makes plenty of money from Atom, and
> that's a fact.

Applied Materials: Displays, Solar Panels and Correcting Tom Friedman

"Returning for a moment to Thomas Friedman's chagrin. Friedman took a similar tour of Applied last week and in an editorial in Tuesday's New York Times lamented the lack of a Sun Fab plant producing PV in the U.S. and the necessity of importing PV panels from China, equating that to importing Mideast oil. Which is a lazy parallel on his part".

What do you mean a lazy parallel on his part? I used the expression in March in a Seeking Alpha article entitled "
Which Is Worse: Buying Solar Panels from Eurasia or Oil from OPEC?" which Friedman lifted from me. Read it and understand the logic behind what I said and what he referred to.

Why are you being judgmental? Remember, you're the ones that put your Seeking Alpha articles in the chip section when PVs are not chips, (read my comment about it in a recent article by greentechmedia in Seeking Alpha) so if you don't know the difference between a chip and a PV except that Si is the common denominator, clearly you are not in a position to judge the accuracy of intuitive comments.

Trina, SunPower, Clairvoyant: The U.S. PV Hits Just Keep On Coming

Shyam,

The move is a way to get US govt stimulus money. Where is First Solar building to get sub $1 production costs. Look at Oerlikon, seller of thin film vacuum equipment. Yes they are building in Michigan (read U.S. stimulus) but they talk of sub $1 pricing for product made in Asia.

SunPower's Rose: How Important Is High Efficiency in PV?

Why are so many of these solar articles from Greentech in the Chip section of Seeking Alpha? Yes many of the are a semiconductor (silicon) with a p-n junction, but they don't function as a chip, which one would think of as a microprocessor from Intel or DRAM from Micron. Of course the solar inverters, which contain IGBTS or MOSFETS should qualify. If Greentech considers itself a solar specialist, they should also know they are NOT chips.

No Signs of Recovery in Semiconductor Industry

You really need to be more accurate in you headline "No Signs of Recovery in the Semiconductor Industry". You should have titled it "No Signs of Recovery in the Semiconductor Industry Stocks". The two are entirely different. The first has to do with the reality that the economy is improving and although the unemployment rate in the US is near 10%, there are still 90% employed and there is pent-up demand for consumer items, which is the largest sector of the semiconductor industry. The latter, stocks, has to do with large investment houses pushing buttons to buy or sell millions of shares at once and paying no commissions on whatever chart of the day looks promising, whether it's oil, commodities, or bank stocks. This is not reality. If historically credible leading indicators such as ECRI are pointing to a recovery in the economy, and the semiconductor industry is indeed recovering, while the stocks aren't, then the stock market is suspect. There are still too many Mary Meekers and Henry Blodgets (remember the dot com bubble) our there.

PHEVs and EVs: Plugging into a Lump of Coal

I like the way you detail the info, but your arguments have been touched upon before. I the documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car" one expert notes that "all you're doing with an electric car is moving the smokestack".

Also, in a SeekingAlpha article wrote on March 19 "Which Is Worse: Buying Solar Panels from Eurasia or Oil from OPEC?" I point out that we need to have and keep an infrastructure here in the US, otherwise all we are doing is importing a different form of energy from another country - solar in my argument, batteries in yours.

Seeking Alpha Stock Market Email Alerts FAQ

I was getting e-mail alerts for more than a year. A week ago it stopped. I went in and reclicked on my preferences. Now I get them, but they come in 7 different e-mails instead of one. What gives?

Which Is Worse: Buying Solar Panels from Eurasia or Oil from OPEC?

Nick,

Reread the article I wrote. Of course there are economics behind the system install, just like there are economics behind refining the imported oil into gasoline and other materials in Texas. What I'm trying to say is that we need an infrastructure here in the US to not only install the cells made, but also to make them here. Otherwise this stimulus package for energy is going out to other countries. It is not protectionism by forcing a levy on foreign made products, it is a rationalization that we the taxpayers are paying for this stimulus and thought should be given on how it should be spent, otherwise we run into the same problems with AIG and the bonuses.


On Mar 19 01:56 PM Nick Gogerty wrote:

> um, the value add at the cell, panel and module level is minimal
> due to the commodity nature of these products. The economic margins
> are de minimus. A typical install on house or commercial roof top
> is about $7-10 watt. $2-3$ of that will be installation, balance
> of system and local services. About $0.65-$1.00 will be for the
> inverter. The article is written without a real understanding of
> the economic margins in the solar business or economics behind a
> real system install. Protectionism and protectionist thinking, while
> popular during times of anxiety are a certain way to amplify an already
> large problem.

Semis' Downturn - Which Companies Will Survive, Part 1

I pointed out in a Seeking Alpha article that there is no longer a correlation between semiconductor growth and equipment spending. seekingalpha.com/artic...
Since 2001, semiconductor equipment have been smarter in increasing the number of chips made without a corresponding increase in equipment spending. The major reason is the movement to 300mm wafers, responsible of a 2.25x increase in chips made for the same number of 200mm wafers.

There is a loose correlation between GDP and semiconductor production. The greater the growth in the economy, the greater the spending on technology. Our analysis at The Information Network (theinformationnet.com) suggests that with a worldwide GDP growth rate of 0.5 (International Money Fund's January 28 2009 forecast), the corresponding decrease in semiconductor sales will be minus 32%. Look for a more complete picture in about a week in Seeking Alpha.

Kirk, I love your comment about Gartner (by the way I read your comments regularly in Silicon Investor. I have been competing with Gartner since I started The Information Network in 1985. I couldn't agree with your blog more. Problem is Gartner has this quadrant system where they promote companies. As these companies want to get on Gartner's good side and be in the right quadrant, they continue to spend money on their market analysis, even though it may be wrong.

Friday's Futures, Intel and Silicon Valley

Intel is closing two assembly test facilities in Penang, Malaysia are to be shut down, along with another in Cavite in The Philippines.

Two silicon wafer fabrication plants in the US are being shut down - Fab 20, a 200mm wafer facility in Hillsboro, Oregon, and the D2 plant in Santa Clara, California, another unprofitable 200mm facility. All the latest chip are being manufactured in more profitable 300mm fabs, where you get 2.5 times more chips on a 300mm wafer than a 200mm wafer.