Seeking Alpha

Robert Castellano

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Robert Castellano's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 5 Reasons Why Applied Materials Is Undervalued [View article]
    Street,

    There are a lot of misconceptions you have, primarily from reading too much instead of doing your own research. In Item 3 for example, Samsung is pushing out purchases (halting delivery on equipment booked) because they over ordered on the DRAM miscue. LRCX is the most recent company affected, so what is a $200 million check going to do, get them to buy more equipment they overbought in 2010 (search my Seeking Alpha articles and find the one on the equipment bubble burst).
    In item 4, what makes you think AMAT is gaining market share to have revenues increase above the norm in 2011? Again, search my Seeking Alpha articles to find out our analysis of that misconception.
    In item 5, where did you ever get that notion that AMAT being too greedy soured investors. In reality, AMAT was big on amorphous solar cells and their business tanked. That's what soured investors. Again, search my Seeking Alpha articles to find out our analysis of that ill advised comment.
    Nov 15 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Semiconductor Revenue Growth Continue Till End of Year? [View article]
    Read my article on Seeking Alpha from August 18.

    Repercussions of a Deteriorating Semiconductor Industry

    It already has slowed.
    Oct 6 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Repercussions of a Deteriorating Semiconductor Industry [View article]
    There are several analytics we use in determining the overall health of a sector. We look at the supply side, down to the chip level of production. We speak with these companies as well as use their disclosure statements on earnings calls. We look at overall capacity utilization in the semi fabs. We look at ancillary technologies, such as software. Finally we use secondary published sources of information. One story does not make a complete picture, but when we look at the overall facets of the components that make up an "electronic gadget or personal computer" and all stories from different sources on different supply-chain components follow the same trend, it tells us something. Of course we use our proprietary LI to correlate with the overall macroeconomic state of the world economy. Examples of stories in the past few days are:

    Microsoft on Thursday reported weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue and again declined to offer a forecast for the current quarter.
    With sales dropping during its second quarter Nvidia's decided to write off a whole bunch of old chip inventory and take a write down against a proposed settlement of a chip packaging lawsuit hanging over it since late 2008.
    An overnight report from a Taiwan-based newspaper said flat panel makers are cutting orders to LED makers. That echoes concerns last month from Piper Jaffray, which warned bookings in the LED and solar-cell areas may have peaked.
    Asustek expected to revise down motherboard shipment target for 2010

    Call me on my cell at 610-737-7596 if you wish to discuss further
    Aug 17 10:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leading Indicators: WLI, SOX - and Now S&P 500 [View article]
    Thanks for the insight Charlie.
    Jul 1 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leading Indicators, WLI, And the Sox [View article]
    Burton you are correct. I've been focusing so much on Leading Indicators I forgot my Lagging Indicators (aka history).
    Jun 24 06:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leading Indicators, WLI, And the Sox [View article]
    cameraguy. Sorry for the confusing statement. In my business as consultant in the semiconductor space, I look at trends to help me with forecasting revenue growth, and we have an internally developed LI that fits. The SOX deals with the stock price of the semiconductors, and there is absolutely no correlation between a company's revenues with a company's stock price. It has more to do with profits, not income. You last statement is exactly what I'm trying to make, the SOX is buried in a litany of stock indices whereas all the focus is on Dow Jones and Nasdaq as indices of economic strength when the SOX may be more appropriate. Of course that argument is based on the acceptance of WLI as a key LI. It certainly gets a lot of attention, so I suspect it is widely acclaimed.
    Jun 23 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction in the Offing for Semis? [View article]
    What amazes me is how Gartner gives forecasts in tenths of percent and then makes huge changes 19.9 to 27.1 in their next announcement. On the one hand the precision in the numbers suggests they know what they're talking about and on the other the huge swings suggests they don't. I see this in every announcement they make. Problem is, the trade magazines publish it as gospel, and Wall Street analysts use their numbers all the time. Sadly it's the investor who suffers by these inaccuracies. I am 100.000% (is that precise enough?) the next Gartner release will again be in tenths of percents and there will be big changes in the numbers.
    Jun 10 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Applied Materials, Chip Sector Are Worth a Closer Look [View article]
    • Except for Quimoda, the fabs that closed were unprofitable 200mm fabs. The driving force is the number of chips that are to be made and the willingness of semiconductor manufacturers to spend on equipment. They are not doing it, and there is a big divide between semiconductor revenues and semiconductor equipment revenues - profits for the former are at an all-time high. There are essentially no fabs slated to be build in 2010 and there were no fabs built in 2009. With worldwide economies struggling, and semiconductor sales are a direct correlation to GDP, unit sales will be slow. Equipment is being purchased this year not for capacity builds but for technology builds, and how big the double digit growth in equipment sales becomes remains to be seen in light of low spending, low GDP, and no new fabs.
    Mar 23 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Semiconductor Valuations Peaking? [View article]
    Except for Quimoda, the fabs that closed were unprofitable 200mm fabs. The driving force is the number of chips that are to be made and the willingness of semiconductor manufacturers to spend on equipment. They are not doing it, and there is a big divide between semiconductor revenues and semiconductor equipment revenues - profits for the former are at an all-time high. There are essentially no fabs slated to be build in 2010 and there were no fabs built in 2009. With worldwide economies struggling, and semiconductor sales are a direct correlation to GDP, unit sales will be slow. Equipment is being purchased this year not for capacity builds but for technology builds, and how big the double digit growth in equipment sales becomes remains to be seen in light of low spending, low GDP, and no new fabs.
    Mar 23 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rising Tide of Foreclosures [View article]
    Why are you blaming the Saudis? Blame the speculators and the refineries who are shutting down production to increase prices.
    Mar 23 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Headwinds, Part I: How Solar PV Is Like Ethanol [View article]
    Tom is right. It's finally a case of Wall Street catching up to Main Street. If you read my blogs on Seeking Alpha or my column on TheStreet.com, you will see that I too am down on solar stocks, primarily because for the solar market to grow one needs government incentives (stimulus) and all countries are broke. In addition, of the more than 200 solar module manufacturers out their, their sales are about 25% of capacity, so to fill orders to utilize all that equipment sitting around idle, they are selling at a loss. Nearly all public companies have announced losses in the last quarter. However, the Chinese will shine at the end of the day because of low manufacturing costs, which are key, in addition to positive governmental and bank incentives. And our own government is doing little to make sure that it's stimulus money is spent on U.S made panels. The solar industry will grow strongly, but too much capacity and manufacturers competing against low-cost Chinese panels will dampen profits.
    Mar 12 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Bails on Agreement With Taiwan Semiconductor: What Are the Implications? [View article]
    I am not a fan of Intel. They are essentially a one-hit wonder (read PC) that is trying to extend its reach into other markets. It made some mis-steps with the Atom, which I pointed out in several blogs and articles for more than a year. But the Atom is not a panacea for Intel's ills, and when it tries to enter into the smartphone space, the domain of ARM, it is going to run into problems - Read my Oct 2 blog "Intel Facing a Formidable Foe in ARM". Intel is sitting on nearly $10 billion and is trying to nickel and dime its way into other markets. It needs a better strategy.
    Mar 2 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar Sinks Upon Release of Annual Report [View article]
    Finally Wall Street is catching up with Main Street in the solar area. I've been negative on solar for more than a year and everyone out there is in denial. Read my articles on Seeking Alpha or my column on TheStreet.com. As First Solar rightly points out, much of the activity has been based on feed in tariffs. Countries are BROKE. PV companies are nearly all reporting red ink last quarter. Capacity utilization is below 50%. Also, First Solar points out its modules are 75 watts. This compares to polysilicon modules coming out of China at close to 300 watts. That means one needs to connect 4 of First Solar's panels to make up the wattage of 1 Chinese panel. First Solar has relied on low-cost production, but with the price of polysilicon so low and labor so cheap in China, it is going to be difficult for them, as well as other thin film PV manufacturers to compete.
    Feb 23 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar Guides In-Line and Disappoints Again [View article]
    Solar is another example of the disconnect between what is happening on Wall Street and what is happening on Main Street. Solar is primarily funded by governments whether its stimulus, tariff, etc. Governments are broke. And like any other commodity, low cost is the key and when the Chinese can put 600 people on a line and pay them10 cents an hour, other countries cannot compete. The U.S. solar stimulus is not working - we need solar jobs here. As I said before in an article in Seeking Alpha "What's worse buying oil from OPEC or solar from Euroasia"? Since the time I wrote that, I guess we can drop the Euro part.
    Feb 19 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing to Fear from China's Alternative Energy Producers [View article]
    This is the dumbest article I've read in a long time. What's the point in the government stimulus - to get us off oil. I wrote in Seeking Alpha 6 months ago "What's worse, buying oil from OPEC or solar from Asia". It took 6 months for Obama to agree with me, and the author needs to rethink his arguments. We are currently at the mercy of foreign oil (remember the oil embargo) and now you say "so what" to a dependence on solar and other AE technologies! What about our money going to China for AE instead of staying here. What about jobs here instead of there. How the reviewers at Seeking Alpha let this slip through I don't know.
    Feb 4 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
69 Comments
39 Likes