iSuppli: Solar Panel Revenue Could Drop 20% in 2009 [View article]
It isn't Greentech Media. In fact, I wrote on December 10 in Seeking Alpha that the Solar Panel market will only grow 26% in 2009, down from an average of 48% in preceding years. It will grow again 48% in 2009.
What's the saying "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery"? Note that this release from iSuppli came two weeks after our article. In fact, on November 10 we wrote in Seeking Alpha about the Hard Disk Drive industry, only to be followed a week later by iSuppli's release that said the same thing! At least iSuppli's CEO phoned me last week and complimented me on my research - a Class Act.
Industrial Production: Tech Worse Than We Thought [View article]
These numbers are for U.S. production. Everyone knows that most semiconductors are being manufactured in Asia. Also, Jolly_Rancher is right, the technology market is motivated by greed, and the technology companies lay off employees to boost stock evaluations so that they can collect on massive stock options. CEO salaries pay for their cappuccinos and martini lunches, and they can drop the to $0 and they won't flinch. Their real money comes from the tens of millions of dollars in the options. Take a look at any 10K and calculate it out. I've been analyzing the semiconductor industry for 25 years as President of The Information Network (theinformationnet.com), so I've seen it all time and again.
Six Reasons for Cloudy Skies on the Solar Energy Industry [View article]
Gentlemen (sic) you're shooting the messenger (me) over issues that you have strong convictions about (perhaps financial ones as well) but you miss the point of what I am trying to say -- unless you have a unique IP, and 6-8% efficiency thin film PV is a me-too technology unlike the the poly and FSLR sectors. So I am down on thin film, not the overall solar industry. With poly coming down on the spot market, it does bode well for lower $/watt, which has a negative impact on the thin film PV market. Talk to utility companies as I have and ask them if they prefer lugging, wiring, and testing twice the number of thin-film panels to a solar farm compared to a poly panel with twice the wattage. And the market for thin-film panels is virtually non-existent on rooftops because of the size of a roof.
Secondly, you will see less subsidies for alternative energy in the near future, not more, as many states have budget problems and the euro region is only now getting into a recession. Who has $25K to put solar on their roofs these days. I mention Germany, but it is the entire euro region (and UK) that is affected by the strong dollar.
Third, the run-up in oil was a catalyst for other alternative energy technologies. They did not sit still in technology, marketing, and expansion during these times. Now, solar has to compete with a number of other technologies such as wind and Pickens. And go to Wikipedia and look up carbon footprint and compare different technologies.
Fourth, I mentioned capacity. There is indeed a 55% utilization rate out there. Go to each of the 103 solar companies I compiled and see what their capacity is. Total it, and then see how much solar panels will be purchased in 2008 and 2009. The numbers speak for themselves.
The semiconductor industry, AMAT's flagship line, is in the toilet, that's issue number 1. In the solar industry, AMAT is selling a "me-too" product line -- high cost vacuum deposited low efficiency (8%) amorphous silicon. That was a good idea AMAT had when it had a lot of its equipment sitting around waiting for the LCD industry to wake up (the original design of its solar machines) and decided to call them a Solar Machine. At the time, no one could get polysilicon to make the really good stuff and there were only a few companies offering a turnkey approach to making the bad stuff, such as Oerlikon. AMAT was in the right place at the right time. Now, there is no shortage of polysilicon, CdTe sales are going through the roof because of high efficiencies, CIGS is starting to see some revenue stream, also with a high efficiency. The amount of capacity in hand to make solar cells is 2X the actual sales this year and in the forseeable future. Oil prices are plummeting, which when at $145 a barrel was a driving voice for renewable, and European countries are eliminating subsidies. Finally Pickens was instrumental in making the country see the value of wind. So where does that leave AMAT?
Examining the "Unprecedented Demand" for Gold Eagle Coins [View article]
The US Mint has turned into a huge profit center for the US Government, raking in millions of dollars in profits each year. Coin collecting has been on the upswing starting with the State Quarters and the US Mint has benefited with its annual commemorative coins. With the downturn in gold prices, the Mint does not want to be selling gold bullion coins now that the price is low. Look at statistics for the Gold Spouse coins and see how the Mint raised prices dramatically in the past year from the initial price set with the Martha Washington. With fewer gold coins on the market, it will naturally drive up prices and validate the Mint's high bullion coin prices, thus raking in even more profits.
Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room to Grow [View article]
Can't figure out your math. If the world produced 3.8 GW of solar cells in 2007, why are you trying to turn a yearly revenue into another yearly revenue by multiplying by 365 days and 7 hours, when it is already in years?
Secondly, 3.8 GW is the consumption (sales). If the capacity was 12.4 GW, how can you say solar cell manufacturers are capacity constrained when in fact there is 3x more capacity than was sold? And don't look for any catch-up. Capacity is far outstripping demand, which is growing 40% per year. It seams that we are hearing of new companies starting up on a daily basis.
In addition, there are 100 Chinese companies making solar cells and aabout half as many companies in India will be in production in 2010. With lower production costs there than in the U.S., Europe, or Japan, competitive forces will drop the price of solar cells and thereby eat the bottom line. That should impact public solar cell manufacturers.
iSuppli: Solar Panel Revenue Could Drop 20% in 2009 [View article]
What's the saying "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery"? Note that this release from iSuppli came two weeks after our article. In fact, on November 10 we wrote in Seeking Alpha about the Hard Disk Drive industry, only to be followed a week later by iSuppli's release that said the same thing! At least iSuppli's CEO phoned me last week and complimented me on my research - a Class Act.
Industrial Production: Tech Worse Than We Thought [View article]
Six Reasons for Cloudy Skies on the Solar Energy Industry [View article]
Secondly, you will see less subsidies for alternative energy in the near future, not more, as many states have budget problems and the euro region is only now getting into a recession. Who has $25K to put solar on their roofs these days. I mention Germany, but it is the entire euro region (and UK) that is affected by the strong dollar.
Third, the run-up in oil was a catalyst for other alternative energy technologies. They did not sit still in technology, marketing, and expansion during these times. Now, solar has to compete with a number of other technologies such as wind and Pickens. And go to Wikipedia and look up carbon footprint and compare different technologies.
Fourth, I mentioned capacity. There is indeed a 55% utilization rate out there. Go to each of the 103 solar companies I compiled and see what their capacity is. Total it, and then see how much solar panels will be purchased in 2008 and 2009. The numbers speak for themselves.
Applied Materials Leads by Example [View article]
Examining the "Unprecedented Demand" for Gold Eagle Coins [View article]
Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room to Grow [View article]
Secondly, 3.8 GW is the consumption (sales). If the capacity was 12.4 GW, how can you say solar cell manufacturers are capacity constrained when in fact there is 3x more capacity than was sold? And don't look for any catch-up. Capacity is far outstripping demand, which is growing 40% per year. It seams that we are hearing of new companies starting up on a daily basis.
In addition, there are 100 Chinese companies making solar cells and aabout half as many companies in India will be in production in 2010. With lower production costs there than in the U.S., Europe, or Japan, competitive forces will drop the price of solar cells and thereby eat the bottom line. That should impact public solar cell manufacturers.