Robert Castellano

Solar Market Declines for First Time Ever

123andy you're absolutely right. In may Seeking Alpha article back in November 2008 "Six Reasons for Cloudy Skies on the Solar Energy Industry" I got beat up quite a bit by people in denial when I predicted the downturn in solar. No one would believe it.
In September 2009 I noted that as many as 50% of solar manufacturers may not survive in 2010. Again I got beat up. Look with happened this month as a few solar companies went out of business. It's just the beginning. Yet no one believes it.

Marketshare for Thin Film Solar to Reach 31% in 2013 from 14% in 2008

There's nothing new in this information.

I projected similar numbers back in September 2008. "Polycrystalline supply to push thin film solar growth"

Copy and paste the link below

www.eetasia.com /ART_8800542990_480200...

Are U.S. Solar Companies Losing Market Share to Their Chinese Competitors?

Kevin, this is not new. I pointed out about the problem in SeekingAlopha on March 31 - "Economic and Technical Factors Create Winners and Losers in the Solar Cell Market" - how the Chinese are the big winners due to subsidies. They get practically free loans and stimulus money. I won't say the naughty word "dumping" here, but they will drive many non-Asian solar manufacturers out of business - read my recent article in my column on TheStreet.com where I discuss details.

Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room to Grow

Can't figure out your math. If the world produced 3.8 GW of solar cells in 2007, why are you trying to turn a yearly revenue into another yearly revenue by multiplying by 365 days and 7 hours, when it is already in years?

Secondly, 3.8 GW is the consumption (sales). If the capacity was 12.4 GW, how can you say solar cell manufacturers are capacity constrained when in fact there is 3x more capacity than was sold? And don't look for any catch-up. Capacity is far outstripping demand, which is growing 40% per year. It seams that we are hearing of new companies starting up on a daily basis.

In addition, there are 100 Chinese companies making solar cells and aabout half as many companies in India will be in production in 2010. With lower production costs there than in the U.S., Europe, or Japan, competitive forces will drop the price of solar cells and thereby eat the bottom line. That should impact public solar cell manufacturers.