Robert Castellano

Six Reasons for Cloudy Skies on the Solar Energy Industry

Gentlemen (sic) you're shooting the messenger (me) over issues that you have strong convictions about (perhaps financial ones as well) but you miss the point of what I am trying to say -- unless you have a unique IP, and 6-8% efficiency thin film PV is a me-too technology unlike the the poly and FSLR sectors. So I am down on thin film, not the overall solar industry. With poly coming down on the spot market, it does bode well for lower $/watt, which has a negative impact on the thin film PV market. Talk to utility companies as I have and ask them if they prefer lugging, wiring, and testing twice the number of thin-film panels to a solar farm compared to a poly panel with twice the wattage. And the market for thin-film panels is virtually non-existent on rooftops because of the size of a roof.

Secondly, you will see less subsidies for alternative energy in the near future, not more, as many states have budget problems and the euro region is only now getting into a recession. Who has $25K to put solar on their roofs these days. I mention Germany, but it is the entire euro region (and UK) that is affected by the strong dollar.

Third, the run-up in oil was a catalyst for other alternative energy technologies. They did not sit still in technology, marketing, and expansion during these times. Now, solar has to compete with a number of other technologies such as wind and Pickens. And go to Wikipedia and look up carbon footprint and compare different technologies.

Fourth, I mentioned capacity. There is indeed a 55% utilization rate out there. Go to each of the 103 solar companies I compiled and see what their capacity is. Total it, and then see how much solar panels will be purchased in 2008 and 2009. The numbers speak for themselves.