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Robert Castleman

 
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  • BlackBerry Needs To Sell 8MM - 9MM Smartphones To Meet FY16 Revenue Bogey [View article]
    The issue I have with the downgrade is that so far, at least, Chen has hit all of his forward looking goals. Morgan Stanley apparently thinks this will not happen.

    Even if the targets are missed, a valuation of $7 seems far too low. That is back to near levels where bankruptcy or a fire sale was on the table.

    I'm not one to subscribe to conspiracy theories, but sometimes you have to wonder. Such a downgrade sure makes it easy for some shorts to exit and some institutions to buy in at a discount.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Shorts Getting Cooked [View article]
    Just sayin', but if you're short, even just +1% is a loss.

    Actually, taking a short term short position may not be a bad play. I suspect that there might be some pull back from the %5 pop we got yesterday. But I'm operating with a longer horizon.
    Nov 11, 2014. 02:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Shorts Getting Cooked [View article]
    I'm pessimistically optimistic.

    I really like where BBRY sits right now. They appear to have stanched the bleeding and positioned themselves to go on offense. What remains to be seen is if they can start to grow again. Even more importantly, can they sustain that growth.

    Cash flow even in this quarter is ahead of schedule and should really make shorts nervous. A string of quarters with positive cash flows (dare I say profits?) and the shorts will be reassessing their logic.

    Hanging on to my long position for now.
    Nov 11, 2014. 01:43 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is BlackBerry Channeling iPhone And Air Jordan To Create Frenzied Demand For The Passport? [View article]
    Until we see photos of huge crowds, there is no frenzy.

    Though it's nice to see that the available stock is being sucked up.
    Oct 6, 2014. 03:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Making Solid Progress On Its Turnaround Plan [View article]
    KIA - I agree that most people don't buy based on their perceptions of an OS. They go with what they know until there is a compelling reason to change. This could be that their current device doesn't do what they need or some other device does something that no one else does, or does something better.
    Once the resistance to switching is low enough, then the learning curve of a new OS is much less relevant. But even then, most people aren't thinking "This OS sucks or is awesome". Most don't even think about the OS. Operating System? WTF is that? Their focus on the highest level - does it do what I want? Fan boys and techies are the ones that gush about the OS. Most consumers are neither.
    Sep 27, 2014. 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: BlackBerry Earnings - Our Bull Case Has Been Augmented [View article]
    I'm not too concerned. Oversimplifying quite a bit, the GAAP loss is related to turn around costs while the non-GAAP is more about operational costs. If they continue to have large expenditures in the full GAAP financials, this could be indicative of structural problems. What we want to see is that the ongoing operations are in the black. This shows that their sales are strong enough to cover the costs of generating those sales. That said, what we REALLY want to see is the types of one time charges and other hits taken in the GAAP financials fully covered by robust operational profits. I would expect this to happen sometime in the next few quarters.
    Sep 27, 2014. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Making Solid Progress On Its Turnaround Plan [View article]
    KIA - If there was no difference at all between versions of the iPhone, why upgrade? The point is that there is always something different from an old model to a new one. Moving from iPhone 4 to 5 to 6 is admittedly easier than from iPhone to Android or Blackberry, but it still is a change. People like their habits. It's not until there is a compelling reason that they are willing to move in a direction that will force changes in those habits. This is part of why Apple can count on great sales. Most people, IMHO, aren't evangelists for their phones. They just use them and really don't care that much about the name. The noise in the room is made by the fan boys and haters.

    Apple isn't safe from a mass migration to another brand. "Bendghazi" doesn't look like a widespread issue at this point. But Apple's response to it was to essentially blame the consumer and the media. Weeks of glowing press and they respond by pointing fingers? The response hurts Apple more than the actual problem. This was the attitude that cost Detroit leadership in the automotive industry. People are fickle. We only need to look at Blackberry to see that.
    Sep 27, 2014. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: BlackBerry Earnings - Our Bull Case Has Been Augmented [View article]
    I posted this on another BBRY article, but thought it was interesting enough to bear repeating.

    Given market shares of 40% for apple and 0.5% for Blackberry, Apple's initial 10 million sales relative to market share is 250,00 units per percent while Blackberry's is 400,000 units per percent. Blackberry uptake within its market share is almost twice that of iPhone 6.

    What does this mean? I don't know. Higher loyalty? Maybe some people switching brands?
    Sep 26, 2014. 04:28 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Making Solid Progress On Its Turnaround Plan [View article]
    It depends on what they want. Certainly there is a high level of loyalty that keeps people locked into a brand, but even moving from iPhone 4 and 5 to 6 is a transition. Many consumers are on 2 year contracts and going from a 2 year old phone to a brand new one is never completely pain free.
    Sep 26, 2014. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Beats By $0.14, Cash Burn Negligible; Will Short Covering Ensue? [View article]
    I'm a bit "disappointed". I was hoping for some irrational pummeling of the stock price so I could pick up some more shares.

    This was in general a good performance by Chen and company. Not the tidal wave of success that some hoped for, but not a debacle either. I would say that the turn around plan is still on track and even starting to pick up some momentum.

    Regarding the 200K passports sold - this is a solid start. Some back of the envelope calculations - Apple sold 10 million out of the gate with 40% market share. Blackberry 200K with 0.5% share. Relative to market share, Apple sold 250,000 units per percent of market share and Blackberry sold 400,000 per percent of share.

    So either Blackberry has stronger loyalty and pent up demand or it is getting sales from someplace other than current Blackberry users. Yeah, an ugly calculation, but food for thought.

    The next quarter could prove very interesting.
    Sep 26, 2014. 01:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Making Solid Progress On Its Turnaround Plan [View article]
    Short squeeze? I would be astonished. The earnings report is solid, not fantastic. I expect yet another quarter of tug-o-war between the longs and shorts. Only when revenue starts to show growth we will be able to put this battle to rest.
    Sep 26, 2014. 08:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Making Solid Progress On Its Turnaround Plan [View article]
    Last pre market trade was at 9.85.

    I think it's too soon to say what Mr market thinks.
    Sep 26, 2014. 08:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Making Solid Progress On Its Turnaround Plan [View article]
    EPS good. Revenue disappointing. Guess it's a wash.

    I like that unit sales are moving in the right direction. Very close to the 10 million/year target. BES and BBM numbers are up. This indicates that they have stopped bleeding customers.

    Patience is still the operative word. BBRY will remain a volatile trader's stick for awhile yet.
    Sep 26, 2014. 08:17 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: Top Or Flop? [View article]
    Critically acclaimed movies have been some really big flops at the box office. And some roundly panned movies have inexplicably become hits. Why? Because the reviewers do not have the final say on what consumers like.

    The final verdict will be rendered in units sold and profitability.
    Sep 26, 2014. 12:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: Top Or Flop? [View article]
    If you sold all 20 pairs at a profit, then yes, it was a success. Not sure about the market you're chasing. And sourcing the materials? Oy vey!
    Sep 25, 2014. 10:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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