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Robert Christopher
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Hey: I'm looking to hook up with a Hedge Fund(s) as a consultant. If you're a Hedge Fund who could use my talents as a stock analyst or would like some research done on various stocks, then I may just be exactly the person you need. Please contact me at: Robert Christopher More
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  • Reflections On Adults Only Media Stocks

    My definition of adults only media stocks would be producers and/or distributers of adult related material registered under US Code 18-22-57, with a custodian of records. There are probably only so many ways to package this type of material; so, establishing a true competitive edge could be difficult. Examples of these companies, in my opinion, could be Private Media Group and FriendFinder Networks. When I attempt to look at the financial data for these types of names, I recognize nothing meaningful to me as regards tangible asset valuations or measurable profitability, again in my opinion. However, if there would be value to be found, I would begin to look in the intangible category, as these companies most likely would continue to own some rights in whatever they produce.

    New Frontier Media would be another example, but it looks like they were bought out. Here, I believe there could have been value to be had in its distribution network.

    As in many speculative pursuits, beauty could be in the eye of the beholder.

    When I shift gears to Playboy Enterprises, you are dealing in a totally different world - this is an established media company with meaningful financial statistics and relatively traditional management. Playboy was taken private several years ago, but I used to own the stock, and like the company.

    As in many speculative pursuits, beauty could be in the eye of the beholder.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Apr 03 5:14 PM | Link | Comment!
  • What Do I Believe The S&P 500 (SPY) Returns Will Be In The Future?

    Ok, here it is: I believe that the Standard & Poors 500 Index will deliver total returns on average of about 13% per annum for the next ten years. This would be an educated wild guess, but the 13% would allow for an estimated 8% for a market risk premium (part of your return on the stock market to allow for the risk of the overall market) and a risk-free component, estimated at about 5%. The risk-free component could break down to allow for about 3% projected inflation, plus approximately 2% to allow for real growth in the economy.

    I base these estimates on relatively strong returns on the S&P 500 Index over the last five years, with the realization that the US carries a historically large National Debt. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to consider at least modest inflation in overall price levels to be a likely scenario.

    I look at the next twelve months as essentially three scenarios, with the following probabilities. I think there's about a 30% chance that the S&P 500 Index will deliver a total return of at least 25% in the next twelve months, a 50% chance of a return of at least 10% and a chance of 20% of a total loss at least as bad as negative 25%. These are wild guesses that sum up to an expected estimate of 7.5% for the next twelve months for the S&P 500 Index.

    It goes like this: If the US faces an unexpected military obligation in the Middle East, then I believe the S&P 500 Index (the market) would likely go down. I think most likely, however, the market should generate my estimate of about a 10% total return, or about the same as it has done per year for the last 75 years. If we find that we are generally relieved of worries about Syria, I could see the economy begin to gather more steam, and a vibrant economy could perhaps spur the market to advance another estimated 25% or so.

    Disclosure: I am long SPY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Disclosure: I am long SPY.

    Sep 13 11:00 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) - Looks Expensive To Me

    Before I looked at Wynn Resorts, I took a peak at Caesars (NASDAQ:CZR) and Boyd Gaming (NYSE:BYD). Caesars operating cash flow minus its capital spending presented as consistently under water, in 2012 as well as thus far this year. Turning to Boyd Gaming, the cash flow picture looks better, as if it potentially could turn positive, but I don't think Boyd's cash flows are quite approaching positive territory just yet.

    Frustrated, I shifted my focus to Wynn Resorts. Wynn Resorts has positive cash flows, but when I discounted my free cash flow number for Wynn Resorts by my estimate of its Cost of Equity Capital, I arrived at a target price of about $147. This was taking into account the stock's beta from Yahoo Finance of 1.6 and estimated growth rate of 10.5% from the same source. My Cost of Equity figure came to 19%, and my free cash flow estimate was $1.145 billion.

    In conclusion, I don't see any compelling reason to rush out and purchase any of these names.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: WYNN, CZR, BYD
    Sep 11 10:08 AM | Link | Comment!
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