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Robert Christopher
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Could work with Hedge Fund(s) as a consultant. If you're a Hedge Fund who could use my talents as a stock analyst or would like some research done on various stocks, then you may contact me at: Robert Christopher University of North Florida, MBA, July, 1988. GPA: 3.92. Virginia... More
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  • I Believe There Could Be Still About 20E% Projected Upside In Stocks, DIA, SPY, In The Next 12 Months

    I believe that stocks, as represented by the S&P 500 Index could have an upside of about 20E% in the next 12 months, based on my guesswork about: Portfolio managers' cash positions that could be invested in stocks; My estimate of the trailing Price/Earnings Ratio on the S&P 500 Index currently about 20X; Historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index in a typical election year; Moderate to accommodative Fed policies; and relatively low oil prices.

    Looking at years 1998 to 2004, 2008 and 2009, these are examples of some past years in which the trailing Price/Earnings Ratio on the S&P 500 exceeded current levels of about 20X.

    If overseas investors seeking a safe haven were to pour funds into US stocks, for instance, I could see the P/E on S&P 500 Index expanding comfortably to perhaps 24X, which would tend to buoy US stocks.

    Tags: SPY, DIA
    Sep 16 3:26 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Time Warner Could Be Undervalued Based On Its Cash Flows

    Time Warner could be undervalued in the market in my opinion, based on its estimated net free cash flows, as follows:

    Trailing 12 months operating cash flow currently about $2957 million minus capital spending of about negative $119 million for the same period, or $2957 million plus $119 million, brings net free cash flow to about $3076 million, in my opinion, or about $3.73 in cash flow per share, on about 824.6 million shares outstanding.

    Assuming an average growth rate in revenues of about 4.07% for the last two years, we could arrive at an estimated target stock price about $105.48E, or a potential upside of about 17.2% over its current share price of about $90, if we use the following additional assumptions:

    K = 7.75%, or the S&P 500 Index estimated change for the last 12 months, from

    Beta = 1

    Target Price Estimate = $3.73*1.0407/(7.75%-4.07%) = $105.48E

    Looking at the size of Time Warner, trailing 12 months total revenues are at present about $27683 million. Comparing total revenues to the recent release of Magic Mike, this film has grossed about $58.6 million as of July 19th, a figure from, or about 0.2% of trailing 12 months revenues for the company as a whole, or the film gross revenues could be comparable to about 1 penny (1 cent) of the trailing 12 months earnings per share of $4.04.

    Tags: TWX, Long Ideas
    Jul 20 10:30 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Reflections On Adults Only Media Stocks

    My definition of adults only media stocks would be producers and/or distributers of adult related material registered under US Code 18-22-57, with a custodian of records. There are probably only so many ways to package this type of material; so, establishing a true competitive edge could be difficult. Examples of these companies, in my opinion, could be Private Media Group and FriendFinder Networks. When I attempt to look at the financial data for these types of names, I recognize nothing meaningful to me as regards tangible asset valuations or measurable profitability, again in my opinion. However, if there would be value to be found, I would begin to look in the intangible category, as these companies most likely would continue to own some rights in whatever they produce.

    New Frontier Media would be another example, but it looks like they were bought out. Here, I believe there could have been value to be had in its distribution network.

    As in many speculative pursuits, beauty could be in the eye of the beholder.

    When I shift gears to Playboy Enterprises, you are dealing in a totally different world - this is an established media company with meaningful financial statistics and relatively traditional management. Playboy was taken private several years ago, but I used to own the stock, and like the company.

    As in many speculative pursuits, beauty could be in the eye of the beholder.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Apr 03 5:14 PM | Link | Comment!
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